• In today’s CEO Daily: Diane Brady on Warren Buffett’s succession plan.
• The big story: Trump wants a 100% tariff on movies made abroad.
• The markets: Hoping the momentum will continue.
• Analyst notes from Wedbush on Apple, UBS on the de minimis rule, Project44 on shipping imports, Oxford Economics on recession, and Pantheon Macroeconomics on manufacturing.
• Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.
Good morning. It’s a testament to Warren Buffett’s staying power that his retirement announcement this past weekend came as a shock. The Berkshire Hathaway CEO will be 95 at the end of August and most of us can agree that a well-planned transition is a better succession strategy than waiting for a CEO to die on the job. We’ve known that Greg Abel was set to take over as CEO for some time. (For more on Abel, check out Shawn Tully’s profile of him from earlier this year.)
There’s so much to admire about Buffett. I enjoyed talking to him years ago about our shared enthusiasm for Dale Carnegie’s How to Win Friends and Influence People. We both completed the training course. His track record speaks for itself. And he’s the gold standard for moral leadership when it comes to everything from paying taxes to investing in the next generation. He had a long and trusted friendship with Fortune’s Carol Loomis, who knows him better than any other journalist.
When it comes to handling succession, though, the reaction may be more one of relief than shock. Back in 2012, Buffett, then 81, disclosed in his annual shareholder letter that he had a designated replacement with “two superb back-up candidates.” The board knew the name, but the leader-in-waiting did not. What’s more, Buffett had no plans to retire, making this person less a successor than an emergency backup. At the time, I remember wondering about the logic of having the Berkshire CEO proclaim that an unnamed—and unknowing—insider was now poised to get a job he had no plans to give up.
Fast forward 13 years and the process this time was also not ideal. Abel and most of the board didn’t know Buffett was planning to make the bombshell announcement at Berkshire’s annual meeting. Buffett said his kids—Susie and Howard—were the only directors informed in advance. It’s never easy to replace yourself, which is why succession is a job for the board, not the CEO. At least the guessing game is finally over. For a man who’s done so much right over his career, it’s good to finally have a clear succession plan.
More news below.
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
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Trump to impose a 100% tax on movies created abroad. The president called foreign movies “a National Security threat. It is, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda! Therefore, I am authorizing … the process of instituting a 100% Tariff on any and all Movies coming into our Country that are produced in Foreign Lands.” Context: A huge portion of American movies are shot in “foreign lands.”
Trade deals with some countries could come as soon as the next few weeks, the president said. He offered no details.
Corporate America has been lobbying the president relentlessly—and successfully—for carve-outs from the tariff regime. When the president hears directly from leaders like Apple’s Tim Cook he is open to compromise, the FT reports.
“Tariff washing” is China’s new growth industry. Chinese exporters are diverting goods through third countries in order to avoid tariffs.
China is flirting with deflation, CNBC reports. A price war has set in as manufacturers try to sell a glut of products domestically that had previously been intended for the U.S. The damage to the Chinese economy is becoming harder to gauge because the government now hides data it used to publish publicly, the WSJ adds.
Iran nuclear deal update: Trump said he would only accept the “total dismantlement” of Iran’s nuclear program.
EU imposes fine on Tiktok; Bidders react. Just before the weekend, the EU imposed a $600 million fine on TikTok for failing to protect user data from Chinese authorities. Project Liberty, one of the bidders vying for the social media platform, told Fortune exclusively that the decision “is the latest story in the avalanche of evidence showing that individuals—not Big Tech platforms—should control their own data.” Also, President Trump said he would give TikTok another extension of time to reach a deal to sell its U.S. operations.
The highest-paid CEOs in the country. The new highest-paid CEO in the U.S. is Jim Anderson, who took home more than $100 million in 2024 as the head of network and laser equipment manufacturer Coherent. Nearly all of that money came from stock awards.
The markets
• The S&P 500 closed up 1.47% on Friday but S&P futures were down 0.77% pre-opening in New York. All the major Asian markets were up this morning with the exception of China, where the CSI 300 slipped 0.12%. The Stoxx Europe 600 was up marginally in early trading but the U.K.’S FTSE 100 was closed to observe the May Day holiday.
From the analysts
• Wedbush on Apple: “India will be the ‘life raft supply chain’ that should help Apple navigate this unprecedented tense environment in China. [CEO Tim] Cook stated on the call that over 50% of iPhones produced that are meant to be sold in the US currently are coming from India to evade the China tariff situation,” per Daniel Ives and team.
• UBS on the de minimis rule: “The US ‘Temu tax’ takes effect at midnight [last Friday], whereby US consumers pay their government for the privilege of buying low cost products directly from China. The tax is … a visible price increase to many US consumers—a reminder that they, not exporters, pay trade tariffs. This visible trade tax effect will pressure the US administration to do a trade deal—any trade deal,” per Paul Donovan.
• Project44 on shipping imports: “There was a 300% spike in blank sailings observed for the week of 4/28. This is a result of slowing orders from China leading to excess space on container vessels.” (Blank sailings occur when a scheduled route is cancelled or a port skipped.)
• Oxford Economics on recession: “The economic damage in store from Donald Trump's tariff announcements is likely to stop the nascent industrial expansion in its tracks. We expect an industrial recession in the coming quarters and no meaningful growth until well into 2026,” per Jeremy Leonard.
• Pantheon Macroeconomics on manufacturing: The ISM manufacturing production index “plunged to just 44.0, its lowest level since the Covid shock, from 48.3. Its current level is consistent with a steep fall in output over the next quarter or two. The survey commentary relays that many companies are struggling to cope with the abrupt imposition of tariffs and are having difficulties dealing with customs authorities,” per Samuel Tombs.
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