Plus, spilling on an oil megamerger | Monday, May 05, 2025
 
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By Dan Primack · May 05, 2025

✈️ Greetings from 30k feet, as I'm heading to LA for a couple days of Milken Global Conferencing. Hope to see a bunch of your there, and to better understand how to square dire economic predictions with the recent public equities run. OK, here we go...

 
 
Top of the Morning
 
Illustration of a hugging face emoji with a money tongue.

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

 

Private equity is accelerating its push into the retail investor pool, even as its relationships with institutional investors begin to fray.

Why it matters: This may be passing the buck, literally.

Driving the news: The SEC is seeking to lower standards for individuals to invest in private-market funds, likely by loosening accredited investor rules, after the Biden administration reversed similar efforts during Trump 1.0.

  • "If an individual believes that the risk is appropriate and is protected against fraud, then our regulatory regime should not deny such individual a source of potential wealth accumulation and portfolio diversification," said then-acting SEC commissioner Mark Uyeda, in a late February speech. "Investor protection cannot be achieved through paternalistic policies."

Zoom in: The private equity industry, meanwhile, continues to offer new retail products with differing levels of qualification.

  • KKR and Capital Group last week formed two funds that mix public and private credit, and said that strategies incorporating corporate buyouts are coming by next year.
  • Apollo and State Street recently launched a private credit ETF, which claims to solve the inherent illiquidity issues by having Apollo provide credit assets that it pledges to repurchase if necessary.
  • State Street also reportedly is in talks with Carlyle "to create a product that would combine public and private markets for individual investors."

The bottom line: Private equity has viewed retail investors as the fundraising holy grail since long before distributions dried up, so the former isn't being directly driven by the latter. But it sure is convenient timing.

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The BFD
 
Illustration of two hands toasting but with oil barrels instead of glasses

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

Shell (NYSE: SHEL) is exploring an acquisition bid for fellow oil major BP (NYSE: BP), according to Bloomberg.

Why it's the BFD: This highlights how BP looks like something of a wounded animal, having underperformed its peers.

  • Shares are down 28% over the past year, despite an attempted turnaround plan, which gives it less cushion to soften the blow of falling oil prices.

The bottom line: "A successful combination of Shell and BP would be one of the oil industry's largest-ever takeovers, bringing together the iconic British majors in a deal that's been discussed on and off for decades. The companies were once close rivals — with a similar size, reach and global clout — but their paths have diverged in recent years." — Bloomberg

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Venture Capital Deals
 

Anysphere, maker of AI coding assistant Cursor, raised $900m at around a $9b valuation, per the FT. Thrive Capital led, joined by a16z and Accel. axios.link/42HndO8

Apex, a satellite bus developer, raised $200m in Series C funding.Point72 Ventures and 8VC co-led, joined by a16z, Washington Harbour Partners, and StepStone Group. axios.link/44oi9PT