One of the big goals of the US’s trade war, to hear Donald Trump tell it, is to bring back manufacturing jobs. If tariffs on cars from abroad have the desired effect of opening more factories in the US, it might not be a big win for unions like the United Auto Workers. Detroit bureau chief David Welch explains. Plus: What happens when Canadians stop visiting a town in Washington that’s dependent on them, and what it’s like running a freight business now. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up.

To hear some autoworkers tell it, President Donald Trump’s trade war is much-needed medicine to eradicate unfair deals, wipe away trade deficits and bring back towns in the heartland that long ago lost their steel mills, auto plants and machine shops. It’s a return to the days when most cars and appliances were made with pride by American hands.

The pain and risk, they say, will be borne by the same people who’ve been profiting from America’s industrial decline for decades—that is, the C-suite leaders who chased labor savings over the border and around the globe in the name of earnings per share and the Wall Street fund managers who pressured them.

The workers who don’t trust management or Wall Street may be experiencing some schadenfreude, but there’s also a belief that they’re burning the village to save the town. And what if their town gets burned?

Vehicles on the trim assembly line at the General Motors assembly plant in Fort Wayne, Indiana. Photographer: Emily Elconin/Bloomberg

To be clear, not all autoworkers are convinced Trump’s promise to use tariffs will bring back US manufacturing. Some union workers interviewed by Bloomberg suspect that tariffs will bring only inflation and not jobs. Trump’s supporters think tariffs are the only thing that will bring work back, and, since they’re already all-in on his social agenda, he has their full support. In November’s election, Trump won the majority of White men without a college degree, that is to say, working-class men. Democrat Kamala Harris kept a majority of union voters.

One real risk to union autoworkers comes from the very same developments that Trump hails as a victory. In the past couple of months, Hyundai Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Mercedes-Benz have all announced that they will bring more production to the US to avoid tariffs. That’s a win for Trump and workers who want auto jobs.

But for union workers at General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Stellantis NV, maybe not. Those investments will be made in nonunion plants in right-to-work states, mostly in the South. These workers won’t be new United Auto Workers members unless the union can organize these factories, which they have historically been bad at doing.

For an example of what might happen, just look at South Korea’s Hyundai. The company opened its first US plant in 2005 in Alabama when it had less than 5% of the US market. Hyundai now has three American plants, and its US market share has more than doubled. Producing here lowers shipping costs and avoids tariffs. Companies that invest billions in manufacturing also tend to make products more tailored to local taste. If they do it right, they steal buyers. The workers in Hyundai’s factories don’t have union representation.

Now look at GM. The automaker said last week that it faces up to $5 billion in tariff exposure. Management will try to mitigate the damage by running existing assembly lines faster and overall by getting leaner. But no matter how you dice it, a less profitable employer isn’t a good thing. UAW workers got $14,500 profit checks from GM and Ford workers got more than $10,000 last year. If tariffs broadly slow down the economy, as they did in the first quarter, that would pressure vehicle sales and profits even more.

Union workers only win if Detroit’s automakers bring back some work from Mexico. They may have to over time, but more likely in parts and not higher-paying assembly jobs thanks to Trump pulling back on some tariffs. That will bring in some union jobs. What’s more clear is that Trump’s tariffs will at least cause interim pain for consumers and workers, and long term will likely create more jobs in the nonunion South.

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In Brief

• President Trump suggested that his administration could strike trade deals with some countries as soon as this week.
• Air traffic controllers guiding planes bound for Newark Liberty International Airport lost radar and radio communication for more than a minute early last week.
• US lawmakers are seeking an additional $400 million in federal funds ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Canadians Stay Home, and a Town Suffers

Since President Trump said he wanted to make Canada a US state with “economic force,” Canadians have boycotted the US. Photographer: Alana Paterson for Bloomberg Businessweek

Canada’s boycott of all things American has caused the US measurable pain. Airline bookings from Canada to its southern neighbor have dipped significantly from last year, and the Federal Reserve’s latest snapshot of the US economy noted widespread declines in Canadian spending.

But few places in the US are hurting more than the border towns of Washington state, where local economies are almost entirely dependent on the other side. “We do not survive without Canada. We just don’t,” Ali Hayton, owner of the main grocery store in Point Roberts, Washington, said at a roundtable meeting about the crisis on April 24.

Less than 20 miles south of Vancouver, Point Roberts is nestled at the bottom of a peninsula intersected by the 49th parallel, severing it from the rest of the contiguous US. Unless you have a boat or aircraft, the only way in or out is through Canada. Many of Point Roberts’ businesses are owned by dual US-Canadian citizens and cater almost exclusively to people traveling from Vancouver’s densely populated exurbs.

Now Canadians are staying away, plunging the town into an economic depression. Hayton’s sales are down 30% from a year earlier, leading her to slash stock orders and lower her store’s exchange rate to entice foreigners back. She says she worries it won’t be enough to keep her 17 employees on the payroll, noting that 80% of her business comes from Canadians visiting in the summer months.

Thomas Seal visits a number of businesses that are struggling as Canadians stay home: US Border Towns Are Being Ravaged by Canada’s Furious Boycott

The View From the Ports

Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport Inc. Photographer: Gabriela Hasbun for Bloomberg Businessweek

Ryan Petersen is tracking the Matson Waikiki on his phone. As the chief executive officer of Flexport Inc., a startup that makes software for the freight shipping industry, he keeps an eye on cargo ships using an internal tool. The Waikiki left Shanghai on April 9, just hours after President Donald Trump’s new tariffs took effect on ships leaving China. Petersen thinks it will be the first ship to arrive in the US with its goods taxed at 145%.

When he explains this to me, on an afternoon ferry ride to the Port of Oakland in California, the Waikiki is still crossing the Pacific. When the container ship docks near Los Angeles, its customers will have to pay a tax that could set off a ripple effect: higher prices for consumers, higher costs to companies, narrower profit margins, job cuts and more. Petersen says the real pain from Trump’s tariffs is likely yet to come—which makes the Waikiki a hulking, slow-moving harbinger of economic turmoil.

In the weeks since Trump’s so-called Liberation Day—and through all the starts and stops that have followed—Petersen has been trying to divine the trade impact of each new tariff. Sure, he gets a kick out of posting on X about how ports work. But mostly the tariffs are taking a hammer to Flexport’s business, which helps merchants book space on ocean and air freight. Its customers ship items such as clothing, furniture, home goods, electronics and food; bookings have plummeted given the uncertainty and higher costs. Aboard the Matson Waikiki, 17 of the containers are being used by Flexport customers.

Throughout the tariff roller coaster, Petersen has been advising Flexport customers to stay calm, Ellen Huet writes, as part of our series A Walk With: Inside the Dizzying Chaos of Running a Freight Business Under Trump

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