Morning Briefing: Europe
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Good morning. The dollar rebounds on signs the US service sector remains strong. Friedrich Merz takes over as German chancellor today. And 12-cent cola is shaking up India’s fizzy drink industry. Listen to the day’s top stories.

The dollar bounced back after two days of declines as data showed activity at US service providers accelerated last month. Wells Fargo’s Christopher Harvey expects the S&P 500 Index to end the year at more than 7,000. And FTSE 100 contracts pointed higher after a long weekend. Other European futures were mixed.

New leader. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

Friedrich Merz takes over as German chancellor today, pledging swift action to galvanize Europe’s biggest economy, restore Berlin’s leadership on the global stage and address voter concerns about irregular migration.

China’s trade flows increased at the end of April, indicating the damage from US tariffs has yet to manifest in shipment data, though the trade war is widely expected to eventually slow the world’s second-largest economy.

Pakistan accused India of halting almost 90% of water flow across the border through the Chenab River, adding to strains between the two countries.

Milken conference: Tariffs dominated every conversation. Guggenheim’s Ann Walsh said it’s a good time to invest in infrastructure, real estate and private credit. Lazard’s Peter Orszag said the US fiscal situation is worse now and “it’s time to worry again.”

Deep Dive: Breaking Down

A time-honored signal heeded by Wall Street’s credit industry—the weekly flow of money—is breaking down.

  • For years, money pouring in and out of bond and loan funds investing in Corporate America moved in lockstep: One week’s flows were a decent predictor for the following week, and so on.
  • Not so, these days. The likely reason, according to Citi: Easy-to-trade ETFs are sucking in ever-more erratic capital flows, muddling up buy and sell signals for liquidity-obsessed debt investors.

The Big Take

Telemarketers Are Using a Weird Trick to Sell Bare-Bones Health Plans
How a former TV comedy writer’s fake-job loophole could blow up Obamacare.

Opinion

If Europeans are serious about defending democratic and cultural values, a European Netflix might help, writes Lionel Laurent. Currently, the continent’s broadcasters look fragmented and slow to adapt to technological disruption.

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Addicted To ChatGPT? Here’s How to Reclaim Your Brain
David Fickling
How Nuclear Sites Escaped Australia’s Election Landslide
Matt Levine
Warren Buffett Took the Long View

Before You Go

An advertisement for Campa. Photographer: PV/YT/Bloomberg

Billionaire Mukesh Ambani is shaking up India’s fizzy drink market with a 12-cent Campa Cola, challenging the decades-long dominance of Coke and Pepsi.

One More
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