Good morning. Mark Carney sits down with Donald Trump today in their first face-to-face meeting – more on that below, along with the Met Gala and Israel’s vote to seize Gaza. But first:

• The Hockey Canada complainant tells the sexual-assault trial she was afraid and felt she had no choice
• Conservative MPs gather in Ottawa to discuss next steps and analyze their election loss
• Friedrich Merz’s bid to become Germany’s chancellor fails in parliament in a stunning defeat

In his late-night victory speech early last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney said – as he often did on the campaign trail – that Canada looks awfully tempting to the United States. “America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country,” he insisted. “President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us.”

Not so, Donald Trump countered on Meet the Press this weekend. “We don’t need their cars. … We don’t need their energy. We don’t even want their energy,” he told NBC’s Kristen Welker. It was a far more emphatic response than the ones he gave to whether people in the U.S. deserve due process (“I’m not a lawyer”) and if he’s required to uphold the Constitution (“I don’t know”).

Carney is in D.C. today for his first sit-down with Trump. The Prime Minister has said he’s there to start negotiations on a “comprehensive economic and security deal” between the two countries, though that message doesn’t seem to have made its way south – yesterday, Trump shrugged and told reporters, “I’m not sure what he wants to see me about.” The task now for Carney is to determine what exactly the U.S. President would like. Is it a balanced trade ledger? Tighter border security? The chance to yank Carney’s arm around with a super-aggressive handshake? Let’s try to work it out.

On trade

Trump likes to assert that Canada has been “ripping off” the States for years, in part because the U.S. purchases more from us than we do from them. He doesn’t quite get the trade deficit right: Trump puts it at an annual US$200-billion, but it’s closer to US$41-billion for goods and services. Much of that imbalance, though, is the result of U.S. demand for our energy. Take away the four million barrels of oil Canada ships south each day, and the figure flips to a U.S. trade surplus of around US$45-billion. Also, it bears repeating: A trade deficit is not a subsidy! You aren’t subsidizing your grocery store when you buy dried pasta, black pepper and Pecorino. You’re exchanging money for the makings of a very nice meal.

That bit of reasoning may be lost on Trump, who thinks international commerce is a zero-sum game and groceries are “an old-fashioned term. ” Carney might instead want to talk up his plans for military spending, since Brian Clow, Justin Trudeau’s former deputy chief of staff, suspects that the U.S.’s protection of Canada factors into Trump’s US$200-billion complaint. “They are attributing some level of defence spending to that number and calling it a subsidy of Canada,” he told The Globe. In that case, Carney can tout his pledge to speed up when Canada will spend 2 per cent of its GDP on the military. He plans to hit this NATO target by 2030, two years earlier than Trudeau had promised, at a cost to Canada of $20-billion more annually.

On security

During his first term, Trump channelled his anger over the U.S. trade deficit into negotiations for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. USMCA is up for renewal next year, but so far, the President hasn’t made many specific demands. Still, some experts would prefer that Carney keep trade and security talks separate, rather than knit them together in “one big deal.” Louise Blais, a former diplomat at the UN, warned that such a deal could make it easier for the U.S. to use the economy – and the threat of financial pain – as a bargaining chip to push Canada on defence and security disputes.

It’s also hard to predict what will mollify Trump. Five months ago, then-prime minister Trudeau flew down to Washington to address U.S. concerns about a national fentanyl emergency. Even though a miniscule amount of the drug is actually seized at the northern border, Canada pledged an added $1.3-billion over six years on helicopters, drones, staff and surveillance gear, and appointed a “fentanyl czar” to oversee a crackdown on illegal production. Trump went ahead with his tariffs anyway. “We put a whole bunch of extra resources and money into it,” Clow said, “and it turned out not to satisfy the Americans.”

On Oval Office optics

Ex-New York governor Mario Cuomo used to contend that “you campaign in poetry; you govern in prose.” Late in the election campaign, Carney took to joking that since he campaigned in prose, he’d govern in econometrics. But Trump won’t want Carney to get into the policy weeds today, especially once the cameras start rolling – the newbie politician will need to adjust to the consummate performer. That’ll very likely involve some back and forth on the whole 51st-state business. It’ll almost certainly begin with one of Trump’s weirdly intense handshakes.

There, at least, Carney can prepare by brushing up on his predecessor’s playbook: The internet is full of videos that show how Trudeau neutralized the President’s five-fingered attack. Brace yourself against Trump’s shoulder so you aren’t caught off-balance. Release your hand so you’re the first to disengage. And maybe don’t skip arm day.

Zendaya, Lewis Hamilton and Diana Ross hit the red carpet for the biggest night in fashion: the 2025 Met Gala. Its theme was “Superfine: Tailoring Black Style” and focused on the history of Black dandyism, which meant double-breasted jackets, massive shoulder pads, zoot suits and dozens of hats. Catch up on the fashion standouts here.