Good morning. Never mind the actual tariffs. The threat alone of them is being priced in across supply chains as companies lock in contracts months in advance. Below, ahead of two key snapshots of Canada’s economic health, we look at how that uncertainty tax is hitting smaller businesses – and being passed along to consumers.

Trade: As Prime Minister Mark Carney meets with U.S. President Donald Trump for the first time today, he’s also under pressure to decrease Canada’s economic reliance on its unstable neighbour by increasing overseas exports.

Infrastructure: Doug Ford is asking Carney to support his vision to build the world’s longest tunnel under Highway 401 – which experts say could cost as much as $120-billion – and scrap a federal law that assesses the environmental impact of major projects.

Energy: Dallas-based Sunoco LP made a friendly takeover bid for Parkland Corp. worth $7.7-billion, potentially ending the Calgary-based fuel distributor’s boardroom battle with its largest shareholder.

TD’s top anti-money-laundering adviser departs amid broader shakeup

Stuart Davis, the high-profile compliance expert brought in to advise TD Bank during its U.S. money-laundering probes, has left the bank following the end of his short-term contract.

• The timing: Davis joined last summer as a special adviser to chief risk officer Ajai Bambawale, just before TD became the first U.S. bank to plead guilty to laundering money for drug cartels – paying over US$3-billion in fines.
• The overhaul: His exit comes as new chief anti-money laundering officer Jacqueline Sanjuas restructures the bank’s financial crime unit, with three other senior risk executives also leaving last week.
• Big picture: TD is undergoing a costly and extensive overhaul of its financial crimes and risk management programs to comply with strict requirements levied by U.S. authorities.

Canadian consumers and businesses are already paying an uncertainty tax.

Across the supply chain, companies placing orders months in advance are pricing in the possibility that new U.S. tariffs will be imposed on Canadian exports – and that Ottawa will respond in kind.

Joanna Lyke, who runs a clothing boutique in Fort Macleod, Alta., said one of her suppliers raised prices earlier this year, citing tariff concerns. “That’s what they told us – they didn’t want to be caught off guard,” she said. “We’re placing orders six months out, and we don’t really know what it’s going to look like by the time the stuff arrives.”

That kind of front-loading is visible on a national level. RBC economist Nathan Janzen expects today’s trade balance report will show Canada returned to a surplus in March, driven by a surge in shipments ahead of new tariffs. But he warned in a research note that the broader effects of trade friction are mounting: employment is expected to fall again in April, and job openings continue to decline as businesses hold back.

That uncertainty is also driving a surge in efforts to qualify shipments under CUSMA. Only 38 per cent of U.S. imports from Canada reportedly used the free-trade framework in 2024, but Janzen anticipates that share will rise as companies rush to certify shipments under the deal’s rules-of-origin provisions and avoid steep tariffs.

For smaller businesses in the supply chain, that same volatility is surfacing in less technical but no less disruptive ways.

At Jack’s Cafe in Eastend, Sask., Noel Encarnacion said suppliers are already warning of more increases. “Even if nothing’s happened yet, they price in the uncertainty,” he said. “And that becomes my problem.”

In Lethbridge, Alta., Penny Warris, co-owner of Analog Books, said the ground is shifting faster than she can plan. “We bring in most of our books from the U.S., and the cost just keeps shifting – the exchange rate, shipping, availability, all of it,” she said. “You try to plan ahead, but it’s like aiming at a moving target.”

In Cranbrook, B.C., Bill Heibein said even domestic orders have become harder to manage. “We order from Canadian suppliers, but a lot of the stuff is made somewhere else,” said Heibein, who manages Just Music, an independent shop. “Sometimes we’ll go to order something and it’s just not there. Or it costs more, and nobody really knows why.”

He’s especially worried about everyday items like cables and strings, which rely on international parts or U.S. manufacturing. “It hasn’t all hit yet,” he said. “But you can feel it coming.”

Programming note: I recently set out from B.C.’s Interior and drove east, hoping to understand how Canada is holding together through economic and political strain. What I found were communities shaped by past losses, yet carried by a current of ingenuity, belonging, and a stubborn kind of hope. I’m grateful to the small business owners and community leaders who shared their time – and to readers who sent ideas and reflections along the way. Please keep them coming: cws@globeandmail.com.

Western discontent is a growing problem after the Liberal election victory. Tens of thousands of Western Canadians have recently registered with the Alberta Prosperity Project, which is collecting the names of people who support a sovereignty referendum.