What to know: By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
As bitcoin (BTC) and the wider crypto market await the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday, an anomaly has emerged that could weigh heavily on market mood: renewed doubt over the passing of U.S. crypto regulation.
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Early Tuesday, CoinDesk reported that Senate Democrats are hesitant to push forward landmark stablecoin legislation, citing concerns over President Donald Trump's growing personal gains from his crypto ventures.
When Trump took office, many observers felt crypto regulation would proceed smoothly. Looking back, that optimism was probably misplaced. With the president actively involved in digital assets through family-linked projects like WLFI and memecoins, opposition has mounted, potentially slowing the regulatory progress.
That might lead investors to reprice regulatory uncertainty just as charts for BTC and XRP are signaling pullback risks. Additionally, according to CryptoQuant, there are signs of renewed weakness in bitcoin demand from U.S.-based investors. "Over the past month, the premium recovered significantly but is now dropping again — aligning with the recent BTC price correction," CryptoQuant contributor AbramChart said.
On the positive side, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) marked three straight days of net inflows.
Acting CFTC Chairman Caroline Pham told crypto journalist Eleanor Terret that the derivatives market regulator plans to observe a handful of tokenization pilot programs to evaluate the technology and see how well tokenized assets function in the real world .
Speaking of traditional markets and macro, Taiwan dollar forward contracts signal extreme pressure on the U.S. dollar, meaning the greenback could continue to weaken against the Asian currency and probably major currencies like the euro. The broad-based USD weakness may act as a tailwind for crypto. FX market volatility could drive investors to gold and perhaps bitcoin, too, unless it leads to a broad-based risk-off, in which case BTC may feel the heat.
The other bullish development is the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments that U.S. rates now carry sovereign credit risk and not just long-term growth and inflation expectations. In other words, rates are artificially high because the U.S. government itself is now the risk premium, as pseudonymous observer EndGame Macro said. So, a shift away from U.S. assets and into alternative investments could continue. Stay alert!
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Crypto:
- May 6, 7:15 a.m.: Casper Network (CSPR) launches its 2.0 mainnet upgrade, introducing faster transactions, enhanced smart contracts, and improved staking features to boost enterprise adoption.
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May 7, 6:05 a.m.: The Pectra hard fork network upgrade will get activated on the Ethereum (ETH) mainnet at epoch 364032. Pectra combines two major components: the Prague execution layer hard fork and the Electra consensus layer upgrade.
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May 8: Judge John G. Koeltl will sentence Alex Mashinsky, the founder and former CEO of the now-defunct crypto lending firm Celsius Network, at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
Macro -
May 6, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases Brazil April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
- Composite PMI Prev. 52.6
- Services PMI Prev. 52.5
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May 6, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee and Agriculture Committee joint hearing titled “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets: A Blueprint for the 21st Century.” Livestream link.
- May 7, 2 p.m.: The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision. The FOMC press conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later.
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Federal Funds Rate Target Range Est. 4.25%-4.5% vs. Prev. 4.25%-4.5%
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May 8, 7 a.m.: The Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision. The Monetary Policy Report Press Conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later.
- Bank Rate Est. 4.25% vs. Prev. 4.5%
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) -
May 6: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, $-0.08
- May 8: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $-0.11
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May 8: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.88
- May 8: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, $-0.10
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May 8: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, $-0.52
- May 13: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market
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Uniswap DAO is voting on whether to pay Forse, a data‑analytics platform from StableLab, $60,000 in UNI to build an “analytics hub” that tracks how incentive programs are working on four more blockchains. Voting ends on May 6.
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Arbitrum DAO is voting on whether to put the last $10.7 million from its 35 million ARB diversification plan into three low‑risk, dollar‑based funds from WisdomTree, Spiko and Franklin Templeton. Voting ends on May 8.
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May 6, 1:30 p.m.: MetaMask and Aave to host an X Spaces session on USDC supplied to Aave being spendable on the MetaMask card.
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May 7, 7:30 a.m.: PancakeSwap to host an X Spaces Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on the future of trading.
- May 7, 9 a.m.: Binance to host an AMA on its Binance Seeds program.
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May 7, 11 a.m.: Pendle to host a Pendle Yield Talk: Stablecoin Alpha X Spaces session.
- May 8, 10 a.m.: Balancer and Euler to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
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- May 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.55% of its circulating supply worth $13.24 million.
- May 9: Movement (MOVA) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $8.97 million.
- May 11: Solayer (LAYER) to unlock 12.87% of its circulating supply worth $55.93 million.
- May 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.82% of its circulating supply worth $54.97 million.
- May 13: WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) to unlock 27.41% of its circulating supply worth $1.12 billion.
- May 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.09% of its circulating supply worth $16.34 million.
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- May 7: Obol (OBOL) to be listed on Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate.io, MEXC, and others.
- May 16: Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN), and PARSIQ (PRQ) to be delisted from Coinbase.
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