| As President Donald Trump faces a shrinking economy and growing fears of a recession tied to his tariffs, Republicans in Congress are trying to get him — and their party — a win. They want to extend the tax cuts they passed during Trump’s first term. Trump has called the legislation his “big, beautiful bill,” and without it, millions of people and companies will see their taxes go up next year, right before the 2026 midterm elections, when control of Congress is at stake. “We have got to get this one, big, beautiful bill done,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Main Street Partnership, which supports Republicans in Congress, “and get it through as soon as possible so everything kicks in for the midterms.” While tax cuts are popular, the GOP plan faces politically perilous hurdles when it comes to how to pay for it. Here’s what’s going on as Republicans begin working on it in earnest this month. Trump’s tax cuts are expensive Almost a decade ago, in Trump’s first term, Republicans passed tax legislation that gave most Americans a modest cut and largely benefited the wealthy and corporations. It added to the national debt by reducing tax revenue that the government would have otherwise collected. These tax cuts will expire soon, and if Republicans don’t act, Americans’ tax bills will go up next year. (Democrats in Congress are almost universally opposed to extending these cuts, saying they mostly benefit the wealthy and corporations. Economists told me the tax cuts gave the economy a modest boost.) “If it doesn’t get approved, it’s a 68 percent tax increase,” Trump told NBC News recently. But the debt is growing And extending the tax cuts would add trillions more to the national debt over the next decade. The debt is already about 95 percent of the gross domestic product. Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said that means the United States has so much debt, it spends more money paying its interest than it does on the military. It’s going to be nearly impossible for Republicans to fully pay for Trump’s tax cuts, said Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning think tank. Earlier this year, congressional Republicans approved an outline for this legislation that would cut $4 billion in spending to pay for trillions worth of tax cuts. “That’s like a drop in the bucket,” said York. “It’s a rounding error of what is required.” That type of money can be found only by trimming popular social services or defense, which are by far the biggest drivers of the U.S. budget. Trump says he’ll increase defense spending, which leaves government benefits like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid potentially facing cuts. Republicans have zeroed in on cutting Medicaid But cutting government benefits is so risky that it’s known as the “third rail” of politics. And Medicaid is a program that, like many government benefits, Trump’s supporters rely on. Medicaid helps lower-income Americans of all ages receive health care, and a lot of Republicans — Trump included — seem really hesitant to touch it. Among congressional lawmakers, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) has one of the highest percentages of constituents on Medicaid. “We’re not doing anything with entitlements,” Trump said recently. One fact illuminating the problem: “It actually really infuriates me to hear people here talking about that, because it stresses people out,” Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), a close Trump ally, told Semafor. “This is life and death for them.” One idea Chamberlain, the GOP strategist, noted: Republicans could be careful to frame Medicaid cuts as just targeting waste, fraud and abuse — like making sure undocumented immigrants can’t get benefits. “They don’t want to give Democrats any political fire going into next year,” she said. “I suspect that some cuts will happen,” said Molly Reynolds, a congressional analyst with the Brookings Institution. Democrats think Republicans are making a huge political mistake by trying to pass tax cuts that aren’t widely supported, and doing it by possibly cutting a popular government health-care program. “I think we have a golden opportunity coming up,” veteran Democratic strategist James Carville said on “The Tara Palmeri Show” recently. This bill “is going to cause adverse effects on Medicaid, which is going to adversely affect middle-class people.” So what happens next? Republicans are feeling the pressure of next year’s midterm elections in a couple of ways right now: They want to pass this bill as soon as possible so people’s taxes don’t go up next year. They want to tout at least some legislative accomplishments while they control both chambers of Congress. And they want to give Trump a victory he can brag about. This week, Republicans will start putting together the legislation in committees, with the hopes of voting on it this summer. “There is enormous pressure on Republicans to get something done,” Reynolds said. “They’ve hung most of their legislative hopes on this.” | 
