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Today’s Agenda

New York or Nowhere

I never thought I’d see an alert from the Bloomberg Terminal with the phrase, “hot commie summer,” and yet here it is, screenshotted for posterity:

What’s there to say!! I suppose I’ll start with the obvious disclaimer: Michael R. Bloomberg — the owner of this whole rodeo — was mayor of New York City for a dozen years. After him came Bill de Blasio, then Eric Adams. Now, with his shocking victory in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, 33-year-old Zohran Mamdani might be the next name on that list.

Yet a vocal group of critics say his policies — free buses, a rent freeze, city-owned grocery stores — would bring about doomsday for city dwellers. President Donald Trump called Mamdani “a 100% Communist Lunatic.” Investors Daniel Loeb and Bill Ackman warned that Wall Street executives would flock to greener pastures. And Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis even jumped on the dogpile, saying that a Mamdani mayorship might be a boon for Palm Beach home prices. “The implication, apparently, is that the self-described democratic socialist will drive out the rich with new taxes and turn the home of Wall Street into a far-left hellscape,” Jonathan Levin writes.

“Not only is that a speculative leap, but it defies logic,” he argues: “Florida’s attractiveness will always be a direct corollary of its proximity and easy access to New York — and the continued greatness of the latter. If New York stumbles, so will Florida.”

Beyond business, the idea that the Sunshine State could completely replace the Big Apple is preposterous to Jonathan, who lives in South Florida full-time and knows the ultra-rich’s North-to-South migratory patterns like the back of his hand. From November to April — aka “the season” — the hedge fund bros attend charity polo matches, art fairs and tennis matches. When May rolls around, it’s back on the private jet to New England, where the wealthy oscillate between ZZ’s Club and the Sagaponack General Store. “No matter how much rich Republicans claim to dislike New York, most people in that crowd seem to find their way back to the Northeast during the sweltering summer months,” he writes.

The bottom line? New York City is too good to leave. There’s really no other place like it in the world, something that all mayoral hopefuls can agree on.

A New Villain Enters the Villa

Well, this can’t be good for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s mental health: As soon as John Authers says the world has stopped talking about tariffs, Conor Sen says the economy is going soft.

More specifically, the job market is going soft:

While inflation is often seen as the main villain in America’s economic story, Conor is side-eyeing employment as a potential foil. “The job openings-to-unemployment ratio is back at levels last seen in late 2018,” he writes, and recent college grads and white-collar workers are finding it awfully tricky to find a job in a landscape where bosses are picking robots over humans. Stephen Mihm has his doubts about whether the AI hype will translate into real productivity gains, but CEOs might be too busy playing around with Claude to heed those warnings.

The “emergent but inconclusive labor market risks pose a challenge for the Fed, which is dealing with multiple sources of inflation uncertainty, too, from tariffs to the tax legislation going through Congress,” Conor writes. Bloomberg’s editorial board believes a “wait and see” approach is the wisest course of action for Powell, despite the White House’s not-so-subtle calls for rate cuts.

How are businesses faring against this ugly backdrop? Andrea Felsted zooms in on one of the more troubled titans in the retail world: Victoria’s Secret. She says President Trump’s tariffs will cost the lingerie company $50 million this year alone. Although VS is dressing up Sabrina Carpenter and doing hot dog collabs in LA, that doesn’t change the fact that most shoppers loathe underwire bras, hence why its share price is, ugh, sagging.

Having two activists meddling with its affairs doesn’t seem to be helping, either. Andrea says investors want the company to resurrect the supermodel “angels” that used to grace the runway, “but what Victoria’s Secret really needs is a different kind of angel: a buyer. Ideally, one that can offer a decent bid premium to long-suffering shareholders and enable the company to do the hard work needed to adapt to a new lingerie landscape,” she writes.

Adapting to a new landscape! That seems to be everyone’s MO these days.

Bonus Economic Vibe Reading: FedEx has more to worry about than tariffs and a freight slump. — Thomas Black

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Glasto Drama

I am not a music festival person, but the big story out of this year’s Glastonbury Festival has me hooked (as does the Matty Healy merch, but I digress). In case you missed it, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer wants the Irish hip-hop trio Kneecap to be banned from the festival because one of its rappers was charged with a terrorism offense for shouting “up Hezbollah, up Hamas” during a previous performance.

“Rather than becoming a pariah for confusing concern for the civilians of Gaza with support for murderous Islamist death cults, the heavy-handed police response to Kneecap’s O hAnnaidh has turned him into a cause celebre, with fellow artists issuing supportive statements and a legion of enthusiastic young fans rallying outside court,” writes Rosa Price.

Free speech is far more fragile across the pond, she explains: “There’s no constitutional principle in the UK as weighty as the US’ First Amendment to the Constitution.” Yet silencing others is no way to fight ignorance: “Criminal penalties for words written or spoken, however stupid or nasty, are so often counterproductive,” Rosa writes. Read the whole thing.

Telltale Charts

Here’s a hot take for an equally hot day: “We don’t have enough millionaires in Latin America. Given that we are talking about the world’s most unequal region, already home to some of the richest individuals on Earth, that may sound very Gordon Gecko of me,” writes Juan Pablo Spinetto. But hear him out: “A bigger class of emerging capitalists, particularly from the bottom of the wealth pyramid, would signal a more ambitious and vibrant business environment.”

Zambia is the next Greece!! Just not in the let’s-go-on-vacation-there type of way you’re probably envisioning: Matthew A. Winkler says the country “is poised to watch its economy expand at least 6% in 2025, buoyed by improving rainfall, increased copper production and a debt restructuring with interest rates as low as 1% until 2037” and its “dollar-denominated securities now have no peers in the international bond market.” The economic bonanza that bondholders are experiencing is truly wild: “A $100 million investment has swelled to $121 million in less than a year,” Matthew writes. An extra 21 bars, just like that! Casual.

Further Reading

JD Vance is a political shapeshifter who morphs into whatever suits his political ambitions. — Nia-Malika Henderson

Switch 2 sales prove that Nintendo can separate signal from noise. — Gearoid Reidy

If you’re investing in UK securities, head to bonds and not stocks. — Marcus Ashworth

Congressional term limits would only shift power to unelected aides and lobbyists. — David M. Drucker

Have we learned nothing from history? Overregulation is slowing the clean-energy transition. — David Fickling

SPACs are making a comeback. What could possibly go wrong this time? — Chris Bryant

Believe it or not, Republicans are still trying to repeal Obamacare. — Ronald Brownstein

ICYMI

Jane Street’s co-founder made a big oopsies.

Calculate your gains under a new SALT cap.

Sam Altman’s self-driving dreams.

Venice braces for the wedding to end all weddings.

Kickers

A great restaurant won’t have a “wrong order.”

Sabrina Carpenter gives her haters a new cover.

M3GAN 2.0 is a true nightmare to watch.

Did lead poisoning create a bunch of serial killers?

Notes: Please send wrong orders and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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