History shows that turmoil in the Middle East usually means a stateside spike in gas prices. But even with the US and Israel launching strikes against Iran, experts believe there’s no reason to turn your car around this summer.

The average cost for a gallon of regular gas is currently $3.21—that’s ~23 cents cheaper than it was a year ago, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In fact, oil prices are lower now than when the Israel-Iran conflict began on June 10, and they may hold steady for awhile:

• Unlike in similar situations that led to more expensive gas, the US has produced much more oil since the shale revolution of the early 2010s, creating an abundance that should prevent pain at the pump.
• The Persian Gulf region is also less willing than it used to be to withhold its oil to spite the US for its support of Israel, per the Washington Post.

The role of the Strait of Hormuz

Of course, this can all change in an instant if the tenuous ceasefire is broken, or if there’s a disruption in the body of water that everyone suddenly became an expert on two weeks ago—the Strait of Hormuz.

The US imports just 7% of its oil through the strait, but 20% of the world’s oil passes through the choke point controlled by Iran. A shutdown could throw global markets into chaos and send gas prices soaring.

So far, so good: Bloomberg reported that the number of oil tankers leaving the Persian Gulf doubled from Monday to Tuesday this week. And this week’s seven-day rolling average for traffic through the strait is on par with the average for the rest of the month.

Bottom line: Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told the Wall Street Journal that he expects gas prices to hold between $3 and $3.20 this summer.—DL

Shell denied a report it’s in talks to acquire BP. According to the Wall Street Journal, Shell is “holding early-stage talks” to buy its rival in what would be the biggest oil deal since the merger of Exxon and Mobil in 1999. CNBC, however, reported that it’s unlikely Shell would purchase all of BP in any potential deal, and Shell denied that talks were happening at all, calling the WSJ report “market speculation.” If a deal eventually goes through, it would combine Shell and its $210 billion market cap with some or all of BP’s $82 billion, creating another energy juggernaut to compete with Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, and Chevron. Shell’s stock dropped on the news, while BP’s ticked up.

NATO allies agree to increase defense spending. Under the new agreement, each nation in the Western military alliance will more than double their defense spending from 2% of GDP to 5% by 2035, the group announced at its summit in the Netherlands yesterday. The move is seen as a bulwark against the threat from Russia, as well as a response to growing tensions in the Middle East. It’s also considered a win for President Trump, who has long pressured NATO allies to spend more on defense. Trump has repeatedly threatened to pull the US out of NATO, but this week appeared to affirm the country’s continued involvement. He also said the US will meet with Iran next week amid its fragile ceasefire with Israel.

Monster and CareerBuilder filed for bankruptcy. The sites that people used to find jobs in the late 1990s filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy yesterday, saying they will sell off parts of their businesses to different buyers. Monster was once one of the most popular sites for job seekers, going as far as airing a highly memorable Super Bowl commercial in which kids sarcastically dreamed of “climbing up to middle management” and “being replaced on a whim.” But the company struggled to stay relevant amid the growth of platforms like LinkedIn and Indeed, eventually merging with CareerBuilder last year.—AE

Ta-ta for now: More millionaires are expected to flee Great Britain than any other country this year in a record “wealth exit,” aka a Wexit, a British migration advisory firm projected this week.

According to the annual wealth migration report from Henley & Partners:

• Globally, 142,000 millionaires are expected to relocate in 2025, up from 134,000 last year.
• The UK is projected to account for 16,500 of these departures—the biggest outflow for any country since the firm started tracking a decade ago—up from 9,500 last year.
• China will rank second, with fewer than half as many millionaire moves as the UK, after sitting atop the list every year prior.

Henley & Partners said the Wexit is partially a result of tighter tax rules introduced in October for people with permanent homes outside the UK.

Where to? The UAE (where there’s no income tax) and the US are expected to receive the most millionaire movers this year. Many could also be returning home: 60% of millionaires ditching Big Ben were born outside the UK, according to New World Health, which worked on the report.

Disputed: The Tax Justice Network calls the Wexit “non-existent” because there are reportedly ~60 million millionaires in the world, and there were over 3 million in the UK as of 2023, meaning that if the projections are correct, more than 99% of them are staying put. —ML

For decades, New Balance has been known as the brand of shoes your dad wears on trips to Home Depot because his sciatica is acting up. But the sneaker company was on the big stage last night, outfitting basketball prodigy Cooper Flagg, who was selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft by the Dallas Mavericks.

New Balance has just a fraction of the market share that huge brands like Nike and Adidas have, but it’s hoping Flagg can help propel it into sports relevancy. Sometimes it pays off to be the underdog:

• Flagg grew up in a small Maine town, which happened to be near one of New Balance’s factories.
• Naveen Lokesh, the brand’s director of global marketing for its basketball and football division, pitched Flagg on partnering with the company with a tribute video from the workers at the Skowhegan, ME, facility.

The company’s sports push is a hard pivot from its 1990s “Endorsed by No One” campaign, but it seems to be working. In the last few years, the iconic dad shoe maker has steadily built its army of ambassadors, signing deals with NBA players like Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, and Darius Garland.

Big picture: New Balance’s investment into team sports comes as Nike is slowly losing market share in other sports categories, like running.—MM

Americans don’t like paying for most things, but they really don’t like paying for news. Per a recent Pew survey, here’s how US readers typically react when they come across a paywalled article:

• 53% look for the info somewhere else
• 32% give up
• 11% try to access the article without paying
• 2% do something else
• 1% actually pay

About half of those who do not pay for news say it’s because there are plenty of free options, while only 10% say it’s because it’s too expensive. The few who do pay for news tend to be older and highly educated.

Pew did not disclose the percentage of Americans who get their news from Morning Brew, but we can exclusively report that that group is smartest of all.—AE