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What to know:

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

One of the biggest bitcoin (BTC) options expiries of the year has come and gone, and the largest cryptocurrency has declined just 0.6% in the past 24 hours to a little under $107,000.

In bitcoin terms, that's pretty much rock steady. For a look at how unperturbed traders are at the moment, consider Deribit’s BTC Volatility Index (DVOL), a measure of implied volatility. That's now dropped to 37, its lowest level since late 2023. The broader crypto market is less sanguine, with the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index down 1.2%.

Bitcoin's reduced volatility is "perhaps a sign that the market is increasingly confident in its macro-hedge role," Deribit's Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot told CoinDesk. “Bitcoin’s $105K level is pivotal, with technicals suggesting caution if support fails."

The cease-fire in the Israel-Iran war has, no doubt, calmed geopolitical tensions for the time being, though that's far from the only conflict in the world. Investors may also be waiting for directional signs from the economy, with U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) due later today. That's a report the Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on.

“Emergence of an external catalyst such as an escalation of the NATO-Russia tensions will test the market’s resilience, although the general mid-term upward price trajectory seems to remain in play," Péquignot said.

Reports that the White House may announce a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell in coming months raised fresh questions about the U.S. central bank’s independence, bringing down the greenback: The U.S. dollar index stumbled to a 3-year low.

Equity markets, meantime, have roared back to life. In Asia, shares hit a three-year high on optimism the U.S. and China have reached an agreement over the rare-earth trade, feeding a broader risk-on trend.

Still, the impending U.S. PCE report is dominating today's agenda. A figure above economists' estimates could hurt the chances of a July rate cut and undermine the current trend.

"The crypto market is currently in a wait-and-see phase, and the upcoming data will likely determine the short-term direction,” Bitfinix analysts told CoinDesk. “If PCE results come in as expected or lean dovish, crypto assets may see a catch-up rally.” Stay alert!

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Crypto

• June 30: CME Group will introduce spot-quoted futures, pending regulatory approval, allowing trading in bitcoin, ether and major U.S. equity indices with contracts holdable for up to five years.

• July 21: Coinbase Derivatives will launch perpetual-style crypto futures in the U.S., starting with bitcoin and ether (ETH). The futures have no quarterly expiration, are available 24/7, track spot prices, and are fully CFTC compliant.

Macro

• June 27, 9:15 a.m.: Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook will deliver a speech at a Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Livestream link.
• June 27, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases May unemployment rate data.
  • Unemployment Rate Est. 6.4% vs. Prev. 6.6%
• June 27, 8 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases May unemployment rate data.
  • Unemployment Rate Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.5%+
• June 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases May consumer income and expenditure data.
  • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.1%
  • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.5%
  • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.1%
  • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 2.1%
  • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.8%
  • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.2%
• June 27, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (final) June U.S. consumer sentiment data.
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 60.5 vs. Prev. 52.2
• July 1, 9:30 a.m.: Policy panel discussion chaired by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. Livestream link.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

• None in the near future.

Governance Votes & Calls

Unlocks

Token Launches