Good morning. Andrew here. I attended a live taping of the “Acquired” podcast at Radio City Music Hall last night, where Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase was quizzed about his remarkable history at the banking giant. But what you should pay attention to are the comments Dimon made about the stock market — “asset prices are rather high,” he said — and his concerns about private credit. More on that below. We’re also taking a look at what yesterday’s data on consumer prices means for the Fed, at Zohran Mamdani’s meeting with top New York C.E.O.s and at the crypto industry’s continued relief from Washington. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)
JPMorgan’s private-credit worriesJPMorgan Chase’s C.E.O., Jamie Dimon, has been fairly consistently bearish when it comes to private credit, the nontraditional and largely unregulated lending business that has been among Wall Street’s hottest activities in recent years. He kept up that concern yesterday, warning that such lending might be set for a decline. But he wouldn’t completely shut the door on buying a provider of such loans as part of an effort to get back into the sector. “You may have seen peak private credit,” Dimon told analysts on JPMorgan’s earnings call with analysts yesterday, with the caveat, “I don’t know that.” When pressed by Mike Mayo, a banking analyst at Wells Fargo, he added: “Well, I’ve mentioned that credit spreads are very low. It’s grown dramatically over time, and you have to pay up a lot for it.” In other words, private-credit firms are currently accepting relatively little return in exchange for taking on risk, and the industry has grown significantly in the past several years. At a taping of the “Acquired” podcast at Radio City Music Hall later in the day, Dimon called private credit “one place that people worry has unknown leverage.” That said, Dimon isn’t saying no to participating in private credit. He told Mayo that while buying a private lender wasn’t a priority, he’d consider it “for the right people at the right price.” In some ways, JPMorgan is more than toying with the idea of buying its way back into a business it stepped back from in 2015. It announced in February that it was increasing its allocation to private lending to $50 billion, up from $10 billion. The move was born in part out of Dimon’s worry that the bank was losing out on business to rivals, The Wall Street Journal reports — though JPMorgan is still being cautious. “We are remaining disciplined,” Troy Rohrbaugh, a co-head of JPMorgan’s commercial and investment bank, told The Journal.
China moves to restrict exports related to electric-vehicle batteries. Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce said yesterday that it would now require licenses for eight key manufacturing technologies to be transferred out of the country. The plan could make it harder for Chinese makers of electric cars to set up factories overseas and may cement China’s already dominant role in E.V. production. In other E.V. news, Tesla’s top North American sales executive has left. The White House is said to be planning a move to let 401(k)s invest in private equity. President Trump is expected to sign an executive order that would let the retirement plans hold alternative assets, according to Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal. Such a move could give the $12.5 trillion market for 401(k)s access to investments that promise higher returns — but also have higher risk. Apple and HBO Max lead the Emmys pack. “Severance,” the dystopian workplace drama that runs on Apple TV+, received the most nominations of any series this year, with 27; it’s good news for the streaming service, which has amassed critical recognition (though not viewers). HBO Max received the most nods overall, with 142 for series including “The White Lotus” and “The Penguin.” A cloudy economic crystal ballThere was plenty to like and hate in yesterday’s Consumer Price Index report. President Trump’s tariffs are beginning to push up prices in some product categories, but overall there were few surprises. “I’m not sure it necessarily adds to the Fed rate cut debate,” Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth, told DealBook. “You can pull stats out of here to support whichever camp you’re in,” she added. Nevertheless, the market has been left to wonder when the Fed, which has been keeping its eye on the trade war, will begin lowering borrowing costs. The math for that remains fuzzy, given the uncertain path ahead for tariffs and the president’s ongoing pressure on the central bank, Danielle Kaye and Bernhard Warner write. The latest: The futures market still foresees a quarter-point rate cut in September, not this month. But there’s slightly less confidence in that, with the odds that the Fed will act falling to 58 percent, from 65 percent on Monday. Trump, however, wants much bolder action: Yesterday, he called on the central bank to cut rates by a whopping three percentage points. C.P.I. recap: Inflation in June rose 2.7 percent from a year ago, its fastest pace since February and slightly above expectations. “Core” prices, which exclude often volatile food and energy, rose 2.9 percent, largely in line with economists’ forecasts. Month on month, C.P.I. rose 0.3 percent, up from 0.1 percent in May; core prices rose 0.2 percent. Other notable data points:
That could heap more pressure on Jay Powell, the Fed chair. Trump has blasted him for not cutting rates and has encouraged him to resign as he seeks more dovish candidates to preside over the central bank. But yesterday Powell gained a notable defender: Jamie Dimon, the C.E.O. of JPMorgan Chase. “Playing around with the Fed can often have adverse consequences — the absolute opposite of what you might be hoping for,” Dimon told reporters after his bank’s earnings call. On deck: A key measure of producer prices in June will be released today, offering another glimpse at inflationary pressures. That will be followed by the publication of the Fed’s Beige Book, which gives a regional view of how the economy is faring. Mamdani meets the C.E.O.sAnticipation was high for Zohran Mamdani’s meeting yesterday with members of the Partnership for New York City, a group representing many of the city’s top business leaders. The big question: Could Mamdani, a democratic socialist and the Democratic nominee for mayor, convince the group of 150 executives who attended that they shouldn’t fear his potential election? Mamdani said he would “discourage” the term “globalize the intifada,” The Times reports, according to three people familiar with his comments. He had drawn criticism for previous refusals to condemn the phrase, a rallying cry for some opponents of the war in Gaza but seen by some as a call to violence against Jews. Mamdani told the group that while many people used the term to express solidarity with Palestinians, he recognized that some New Yorkers saw a darker meaning to it and that he himself wouldn’t use it, The Times reports. What attendees wanted to know:
Did Mamdani succeed? Kathy Wylde, the Partnership’s C.E.O., described her members to The Times as largely “guarded” but said that most “most recognized that he’s a smart young man and a good communicator and the proof will be in the pudding.” But Jon Henes, the founder of C Street Advisory Group, a communications consulting firm, said, “Today’s meeting made it clear to me that I need to do everything in my power to make sure Zohran Mamdani does not become mayor of New York City.” What’s next: Mamdani is scheduled to meet with Partnership members today to focus on the tech industry’s concerns. And the Partnership is hosting a breakfast with Mayor Eric Adams tomorrow.
Another reprieve for crypto from WashingtonThe crypto industry’s fortunes have soared since the re-election of President Trump, who promised to reverse his predecessor’s crackdown on digital currencies. The latest example of that arrived yesterday, when Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market, confirmed that it no longer faced federal investigations. What happened: Polymarket received a letter this month from federal prosecutors in Manhattan saying that they had closed their inquiry into whether the company had allowed U.S. users to place bets, in violation of a federal settlement, The Times reports. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also told Polymarket it had wrapped up its own investigation into the company. “I’m happy to announce that this chapter of the story is over,” Shayne Coplan, Polymarket’s founder and C.E.O., wrote on X. “After cooperating and engaging, we’ve been cleared of any wrongdoing. Justice prevailed.” It’s the latest sign of a changed environment for the industry. During the Biden administration, industry executives warned that regulators seemed intent on all but outlawing their business via a series of criminal charges and civil lawsuits. That included a raid in November on the home of Coplan, who called the move “a last-ditch effort to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents.” Since then, however, the Trump administration has scaled back its enforcement of crypto in the name of eliminating “regulatory overreach.” President Trump has also endorsed three bills, backed by crypto companies, to formalize regulations for the industry — and helped broker an agreement in the House yesterday to help that legislation pass. The crypto industry is hoping to keep up the momentum. Fairshake, a super PAC backed by several digital currency companies, said yesterday that it had raised $52 million in the first half of the year. It’s a significant haul that the organization, which poured millions into helping crypto-friendly candidates win in November, plans to deploy in upcoming elections. We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times.
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