| Tesla's new showroom in downtown Mumbai is a few minutes from Apple's first store in the country. That’s as close as the two iconic companies may get in their India strategies for a while. I'd hoped Tesla would make a splashier debut. Like Apple did two years ago. With iPhone-hungry customers lining up at dawn, dancing to drums and mobbing Tim Cook. Instead, Tesla's India launch this week was marked by Elon Musk’s absence and plenty of sticker shock. At a starting price of 5.99 million rupees ($69,757) for a Model Y variant, the brand will have limited takers in the world’s third largest auto market. Not Musk’s doing, you might say. India levies steep tariffs on imported cars, almost doubling the price of a Tesla here. To avoid that, Musk would have to manufacture locally, a tough decision to make while Trump’s trade war continues. Besides, electric vehicle penetration in India remains under 5%, and luxury cars make up just 1% of total vehicle sales in the country. Local competition is stiff and charging infrastructure scarce. Can’t blame Musk for the no-show. Well, Apple was in a similar place not so long ago.  The Tesla store at Bandra Kurla Complex in Mumbai. Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg In 2016, pricey iPhones accounted for just 2% of smartphone sales in India – which by then was the fastest growing market in the world. Samsung was market leader, with 23% share and nine years of local production. In contrast, Apple imported its products which meant high duties and a prohibition on direct retail, whether online or via its iconic stores. Around that time CEO Tim Cook, faced with slowing sales in China, made his first visit to India. He met the prime minister, launched an updated version of the ‘Narendra Modi App’ and was asked by the government to commit to investment, local production and jobs in lieu of tax breaks and lifting retail restrictions. The next year Apple began assembling phones in India while doing everything it could to build a domestic market for its products. It allowed online resellers to discount older models and hired affordability managers to boost consumer financing. Cook then went on to beef up local management, launch online sales and in 2023 open the first Apple store in India. Meanwhile, the Modi government rolled out production incentives for Apple’s vendors and other such manufacturers to boost domestic electronics manufacturing. It’s taken nine years of tough negotiations to produce an enduring partnership. Apple now makes 20% of its phones in India and has a nearly 8% market share in India’s smartphone market, with $8 billion in local sales last year.  Tim Cook, CEO of Apple shakes hands with a customer during the opening of the Apple BKC store in Mumbai on April 18, 2023. Photographer: Indranil Aditya/Bloomberg Of course, cars don’t sell like phones, but one could argue that India presents a similar opportunity to Elon Musk now, as it did to Tim Cook a decade ago. Albeit with some differences. India’s nascent EV market offers potential at a time Tesla’s China sales growth has almost stalled. Though, like Apple, Musk will have to tailor local strategies. One hurdle will be tough to overcome. India offers little scope for the automaker’s most touted feature – autonomous or self-driving cars. We are a country of chauffeur-driven cars for the rich — who can afford Tesla — and generally poor traffic sense. The bigger challenge is President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Apple’s supply chain diversification to India was no doubt catalyzed by the US-China trade war in Trump’s first term. But there were no overt political interventions. The US President’s second term is turning out to be very different. There’s his on-off relationship with Musk. And his criticism of any Tesla investments outside the US. But there’s also an US trade deal in the works that may compel India to lower duties on imported cars. In many ways Tesla is facing its Apple moment in India. Will Musk seize it? We’ll know if he shows up later this year. | 
