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Bay Street Edition
Welcome to Bay Street Edition, our weekly newsletter devoted to what’s happening in Canadian finance, covering strategy, deals, people moves
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Welcome to Bay Street Edition, our weekly newsletter devoted to what’s happening in Canadian finance, covering strategy, deals, people moves and economics.

I’m Christine Dobby, Bloomberg’s Toronto-based banking reporter, and you’ll find me in your inbox every Friday. This week, we’re talking about all that unity at the Canada premiers’ meeting (and the song I’ve had stuck in my head for days), calls to reset the China trade relationship and TD’s plan to get employees back in the office. Plus: the company planning to bring generic Ozempic to Canada.

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Lost Together

It’s rare for a Canadian prime minister to drop in on the summertime retreat of the country’s provincial and territorial leaders (that’s usually when they trash him behind his back). Rarer still is a sleepover between the host premier and the PM.

But that’s what unfolded this week with Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Prime Minister Mark Carney. The pair stayed up until after midnight chatting by the fire at Ford’s family cottage, to hear the premier tell it.

Ford, who welcomed the other premiers to the summit at the Deerhurst Resort in Huntsville, Ontario, clearly delighted in his role as host in one of the province’s most scenic places. He heaped praise on Carney — a “community builder” and “brilliant businessman” — and called it “refreshing” to work with a prime minister who “has our backs.”

The other provincial leaders also lined up to pledge faith and trust in Carney and Dominic LeBlanc, the minister in charge of US-Canada trade talks and a man who is collecting a jillion frequent-flyer miles as he shuttles between Washington and Ottawa. The premiers also shared plans for the economy, signing a flurry of agreements to work together to boost internal trade and growth. 

Canada’s premiers (pictured in Washington, DC in February): Now with even more unity. Photographer: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg

Over the course of the three-day summit, I spotted a lone protester with a bullhorn pacing the highway, and heard that an orderly nurses’ protest passed by at one point. But within the heavily policed resort, the vibe was one of almost surreal unity among the nation’s key lawmakers. 

Canadian rock band Blue Rodeo took the stage during a cocktail party on Tuesday evening, and the chorus of one of their biggest hits could have been a theme song for the whole affair: And if we’re lost, then we are lost together, together, together.

There’s wisdom in keeping a united front as the country faces a serious economic threat in President Donald Trump, one that eclipses traditional Canadian grievances and regional rifts. But disagreements are bound to resurface and several were already bubbling up during the meetings in cottage country.

The premiers agreed it’s more important to strike a good deal with the US than to get one by Aug. 1 at all costs. But if that deadline passes and Trump does impose the threatened 35% tariffs, there’s less consensus on what to do after that.

Ford wants to hit back with “dollar for dollar” counter-tariffs while others, including British Columbia’s David Eby and Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe, strongly object to retaliatory levies that they say will only hurt Canadians. Eby told Bloomberg’s Thomas Seal bluntly: “I don’t think that additional counter-tariffs are going to change Donald Trump’s mind.” 

Carney’s government has pledged to support “nation-building” infrastructure projects and asked the provinces to submit lists of proposals. He said this week the promised “major federal projects office” would be open for business by Labor Day

The endeavor has pitted Eby against Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, whose greatest wish is to build another oil pipeline to the coast of BC. Eby, who’s less enthusiastic about that idea, suggested Smith should get in touch with him when a pipeline company actually proposes one. 

When the feds eventually do select certain proposals to support, it stands to create some resentment among premiers who don’t get what they want. And a range of Indigenous groups have raised concerns about fast-tracking pipelines, mining claims or other projects that trample on their rights or land.

The uneven effects of US tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos might also weaken pan-provincial unity once the shape of a trade deal becomes clear.  

The premiers are currently giving Carney “a whole lot of latitude in doing what he needs to do in these negotiations,” Jordan Leichnitz, a former New Democratic Party strategist, said during a panel discussion on CBC after the summit wrapped up.    

“But we’re still at a place where it’s not clear what the trade-offs are going to be,” she said, predicting that there could be “serious regional political ramifications” when an agreement with Trump is eventually struck. Someone’s ox is going to be gored. 

Carney’s still in a honeymoon phase with the Canadian public and voters want to see the premiers work well with him, Tim Powers of public affairs firm Summa Strategies said on the CBC panel.

Yet, he warned, “Today’s hero can be tomorrow’s piñata.” 

By the Numbers

If Trump won’t play nice, some provincial leaders say Canada should turn east and strengthen trade ties with China. Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe said the federal government must “reset our relationship with China if we are going to have any hope of diversifying.”

Last year, the government of then-PM Justin Trudeau slapped 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, along with smaller levies on items such as steel, which drew retaliation from China on canola oil, pork and other food items.

The idea was to align Canadian trade policy with the US, but since Trump has come to power it’s obvious that the White House has given its neighbor no credit for that — leaving Ottawa squeezed between two of its largest trading partners.

Tariff fights notwithstanding, Canada’s trade relationship with the US still tops all others by a huge margin. There’s room to grow with other nations, including China.  

Drawing closer to China on trade would be a seismic policy shift after the past several years, which have included tensions over the arrest in Canada of Huawei’s chief financial officer and China’s subsequent move to arrest two Canadians and hold them for nearly three years. 

Up and Down Bay Street

  • RTO. Toronto-Dominion Bank is the latest Canadian bank to tell employees to be in the office four days a week later this year. Executives are due back in October while other employees will have to meet the mandate the following month, according to a memo from the bank’s head of HR.  
  • IPO. GO Residential REIT began trading after completing the first corporate initial public offering on the Toronto Stock Exchange this year. Bloomberg’s Anthony Hughes and Geoffrey Morgan broke the news on the pricing of the $410 million IPO. 
  • SNAFU. Canadian hedge fund Waratah Capital Advisors is investigating a cybersecurity breach that may have exposed sensitive client information, people familiar with the matter told Paula Sambo.
  • FOMO. Brookfield is missing out on the boom in the secondary market for private equity stakes that CEO Bruce Flatt saw coming years ago. Layan Odeh and Preeti Singh report on the reasons why the firm’s dedicated fund to invest in companies owned by other private equity firms never quite got off the ground. 

What’s Next

The Bank of Canada announces its interest-rate decision on July 30. The market expects a hold and some economists are placing slim odds on any further rate cuts at all this year.  

Many many (many) earnings reports are due next week, with notable names including: Air Canada, Algoma Steel, Intact Financial, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, GFL Environmental, Bombardier, Lightspeed, Gildan, Canada Goose, Spin Master, TMX Group, Magna, Enbridge and Brookfield Renewable.   

Beyond Bay Street

  • Belt tightening. It’s a tough time to be a store owner in Toronto, where retail sales are lagging the rest of the country, according to new data from Statistics Canada. Struggling manufacturing exports, high unemployment and a soft real estate market are all factors, Mario Baker Ramirez and Curtis Heinzl report. 
  • Mail-order wellness. You’ve definitely vaguely heard of Hims & Hers Health Inc., the US direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical startup that’s been offering generic Viagra, hair-loss drugs and, more recently, compounded versions of Ozempic and Wegovy — all delivered in brown paper packages for a low price. The controversy-attracting firm says it’s coming to Canada next year to offer generic Ozempic when Novo Nordisk’s patent on the drug expires. In the meantime, Madison Muller and Devin Leonard have a great read on the company’s rise from health-care disrupter to meme-stock.  
The Hims app got its start promising to tackle all manner of male health and wellness concerns with a few clicks. What could go wrong.       Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg

Get in Touch

Reach out with tips, feedback and story ideas: cdobby1@bloomberg.net

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