Balance of Power

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For President Vladimir Putin, Alaska may be the perfect venue to seal a deal with Donald Trump that promises to hand Russia a chunk of Ukraine.

It isn’t lost on the Kremlin that Friday’s summit will be held in the US state that belonged to Russia until it was sold for $7.2 million in 1867.

Putin claims Ukrainian territory his forces now occupy illegally is “historical” Russian land. Trump, the property-mogul president, may be ready to do a real estate deal that trades land for peace.

That’s a prospect that horrifies Ukraine and Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says he won’t cede territory to end the war and that decisions reached without Ukraine are unworkable.

European leaders want to speak to Trump before he meets Putin, fearful he’ll concede too much.

WATCH: Anthony Halpin reports about the planned summit on Bloomberg TV.

Alaska is about as far from Ukraine and Europe as it’s possible to get, a subliminal message that underscores their lack of leverage.

They risk Trump presenting them with a take-it-or-leave it deal that satisfies his desire to end the war, but leaves Ukraine without security guarantees and Europe policing a volatile truce.

Rejection may prompt Trump to cut off arms sales to Ukraine or renew threats to pull out of NATO unless Europe falls into line. Europe had more than three years to prepare for this moment, yet it lacks the military muscle to go it alone in backing Ukraine.

The moment is fraught with risk for Trump, too. History may judge him harshly if a deal is seen to reward Putin’s invasion, or if Russia uses a ceasefire to rebuild its military and resume the war.

Ukraine can’t afford to alienate Trump. The US also seeks a deal both Kyiv and Moscow can agree to in order to secure a ceasefire, while Russia wants to avert the threat of more oil sanctions.

But Putin has long argued that the US and Russia should settle the war together as two great powers.

When he lands in Russia’s former territory to meet Trump, he may be the one who feels most at home. — Anthony Halpin

Trump and Putin in November 2017. Photographer: Mikhail Klimentyev/AFP/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended his contentious plan for a military sweep against the remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza, calling it the best available option for recovering hostages while safeguarding his nation’s long-term security. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, meanwhile, announced that the country will formally recognize a Palestinian state at a United Nations summit in September, breaking with the US and joining allies including France, the UK and Canada.

An Israeli protester calling for the release of hostages and an end to the war in Gaza, in Tel Aviv on Saturday. Photographer: Kobi Wolf/Bloomberg

Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices agreed to pay 15% of their revenues from Chinese AI chip sales to the US government in a deal to secure export licenses, an unusual arrangement that may unnerve both US companies and Beijing. Washington expects to largely complete talks with nations yet to secure a trade deal by the end of October, Nikkei Asia reported, citing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

A political storm that erupted when José Luis Escrivá became Bank of Spain chief last September is still raging a year later after a series of high-profile exits. What began as criticism of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s decision to appoint one of his own ministers to the helm has now morphed into an extended furor focused both on management style and how the governor is positioning the central bank in public debate.

Trump’s administration is crafting a confrontational approach toward Latin America that signals a potential willingness to use military force against drug cartels, discarding his predecessor’s preference for carrots over sticks to coax countries into alignment with US interests. The emerging plans to deal with the cartels build on an already more aggressive presence in a region that is deeply integrated into the US economy, from cross-border gas pipelines to maritime logistics.

A US Army tank at the US-Mexico border wall in Juarez, Mexico. Photographer: Mauricio Palos/Bloomberg

Two Chinese vessels collided after one of them chased a Philippine Coast Guard ship in the South China Sea in the latest encounter between the two nations with competing claims in the resource-rich waterway. The collision was part of Manila’s account of the incident that happened near Scarborough Shoal where Philippine vessels and fishermen encountered “hazardous maneuvers and blocking actions” from Chinese ships.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will be testing the limits of one of the more successful strategies of dealing with Trump when he visits the White House this month.

Angolan President João Lourenço will meet top advisers today to discuss the threat of renewed protests over steep increases in fuel prices this year.

Iran won’t allow nuclear-site inspections when a senior International Atomic Energy Agency official visits Tehran today, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, adding that nothing has been finalized on any resumption of talks with the US.

Pakistan’s army chief accused India of continuing to fuel instability in the region and warned it was fully prepared to counter any aggression from New Delhi as tensions between the two rivals remain high following a four-day armed conflict in May.

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Chart of the Day

Switzerland’s economy will prove resilient enough to largely shake off the shock of US tariffs over the next year or so, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. Forecasters cut their projections for annual growth by just 0.1 percentage point for 2025 and 2026. “The economy is not roaring, but it’s still growing,” said Jean Dalbard of Bloomberg Economics.

And Finally

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine prompted shipowners to keep hundreds of older oil tankers in service past their normal lifespan to transport Russian crude, mostly to China and India. Now, the most decrepit vessels in this shadow fleet are being pushed out. Along the northwestern Indian coastline of Alang, shipbreaking yards are preparing for as many as 16,000 vessels in the coming decade, double the level from the previous 10 years. Yet with India’s government increasingly caught up in a trade showdown with Trump, the scrapyards are another potential flashpoint because of their increasing dependence on sanctioned tankers.

A half-dismantled tanker in a shipyard in Alang, India. Photographer: Prashanth Vishwanathan/Bloomberg

Thanks to the 28 people who answered Friday’s quiz and congratulations to Thomas Hawley, who was the first to correctly identify Istanbul as the city where officials were unable to organize a response to an April earthquake because they were locked up in prison.

Global Must Reads

Chart of the Day

And Finally

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