Opinion Today
A million-dollar diamond vs. tinfoil.
View in browser
Bloomberg

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, the valuable resale market of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here.

Today’s Agenda

Diamonds Are a Lab’s Best Friend

The summer of 2025 has been dominated by two diamond rings: one of them is very, very large — bordering on obscene — and the other one is very, very small — so small that it almost looks as if it were made out of a sliver of tinfoil:

Two proposals, one question: What’s it worth? Left photo via @georginagio on Instagram, right via Prime Studios

Now what if I told you that both of these rings were worth the same amount? That would outrage you, no? The emerald-cut rock that Cristiano Ronaldo slid onto his fiancé’s finger — estimated to be 22 carats — likely cost more than a million dollars. And the barely-visible flash of gold seen on Belly Conklin’s hand in The Summer I Turned Pretty will run you less than $300. The two couldn’t be further apart! Yet in the age of lab-grown diamonds, the once-precious stone is becoming impossible to price, says Allison Schrager

“Diamonds hold a special place in my heart, not just as fan of jewelry but also as an economist,” she writes. “When young economists first start to ponder the concept of value and why things cost what they do, we inevitably turn to the OG, Adam Smith. It is remarkable, he observed, that diamonds cost more than water. ‘Nothing is more useful than water; but it will purchase scarce any thing,’ he wrote. ‘A diamond, on the contrary, has scarce any value in use; but a very great quantity of other goods may frequently be had in exchange for it.’” That scarcity, combined with the genius marketing of De Beers, made the diamond market shine.

But now that the stones can be cooked up in a lab with little-to-no fuss, engagement rings are losing their luster. “And it is not just diamonds,” Allison writes. “Everything in the economy whose value is predicated on scarcity is suddenly abundant: luxury handbags, music, even currency itself. Why is anything worth anything anymore?”

It’s a question that Andrea Felsted has on her mind as US tariffs spook consumers. “Such an environment has opened the way for dupes and fakes. This has been thrown into sharp relief by Lululemon accusing Costco Wholesale Corp. of copying its designs in a lawsuit filed in June,” she writes.

“The first thing to know is that dupes and fakes are different,” Andrea explains. “Fakes are counterfeits, usually with an identifiable label or logo, making them easier to challenge in court.” Dupes, on the other hand, are more complicated: “They don’t pretend to the be real thing; instead they offer a similar but cheaper version. This is what the Lululemon and Costco case is about,” she writes.

And yet copycats haven’t diminished demand for some of the highest-end items. Allison and Andrea point to the abundance of Birkin bag dupes available at Walmart — aptly called “Wirkins” — as proof. “To an untrained eye these bags are indistinguishable from the real thing — also leather, also look nice, also carry your things — and yet people still desire a real Birkin, for which there is a years-long waitlist. It could be the mystique, or the valuable resale market, but there are people willing to spend $15,000 on an authentic Birkin,” Allison writes.

Indeed, “there’s a lesson to be learned from Birkin’s multifaceted appeal,” Andrea adds. “Not only is it notoriously hard to get hold of, but it is handmade in Hermes’ workshops in France. Such supply chain integrity is a crucial weapon in fighting fakes.”

Yet diamond dealers can’t create scarcity out of abundance, argues Allison: “The diamond market is too large for De Beers to use the Hermes strategy. It needs diamonds to be rare and special — but also on every engagement ring in America.”

“This may not be realistic anymore. A likely alternative is a world where natural diamonds are still coveted — they hold their value and have special symbolism — and, like the Birkin, are mainly consumed by an elite segment of the market. The market for smaller, lower quality natural diamonds may well disappear.” I guess Belly better head to the pawn shop before it’s too late.

Bonus Scarcity Reading: The high-end art market is struggling. Could more human connection provide the boost the sector needs? — Howard Chua-Eoan

Big Tech in the House

Sometimes I wonder what it’d be like to print the visitor badges at the White House. On Wednesday, Apple’s Tim Cook was the guest of honor. On Friday, it was Nvidia’s Jensen Huang. And on Monday, Intel’s Lip-Bu Tan burst through the doors of the Oval Office to — in the words of Dave Lee — “explain to Trump why he thinks he should be allowed to keep his job.”

Is the president secretly filming a 16th season of The Apprentice in there? Because that’s a lot of CEOs in less than one week! Instead, Matt Yglesias says it’s all part of Trump’s plan to curry favor with the business world: “Corporate titans are put to work providing propaganda wins for the White House, and in exchange are accorded favors unavailable to any startup ... Week after week, announcement by announcement, Trump is bolstering his ego at the cost of America’s long-term economic future.”

As we all know by now, Trump’s love language isn’t so much gift giving as it is receiving. Look no further than the bespoke sculpture that Cook handed him — made of iPhone glass and real gold! — in exchange for immunity on microchip tariffs. “To Trump, the important thing is announcing these pledges, not enforcing them,” Matt notes. “During his first term, there was an infamous vaporware investment from Foxconn in Wisconsin that never amounted to anything. The real benefit to the president is the sycophantic photo op, when the CEO smiles for the cameras and praises Trump’s dealmaking prowess.”

Yet Dave fails to see any hint of prowess in the AI deal the White House just inked with Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices. The two tech companies have agreed to hand the US government 15% of their revenues from Chinese AI chip sales. “Where exactly the 15% cut to the US government will go, and to what ends, hasn’t been fully disclosed,” Dave writes. “Regardless, the primary winners from this deal are Nvidia and China.”

Bonus Tariff Reading: The godfather of the Mar-a-Lago Accord is going to the Fed. — John Authers

Israel’s Road to Isolation

In a sweeping new feature, Marc Champion spends time pondering a difficult question that many have asked but few have tried to meaningfully answer: “How on earth did Israel get to this point, and how can it escape?”

As Marc says, “Gaza is all but razed to the ground. Tens of thousands of civilians have been killed, and the provision of food and medicine has been weaponized,” and yet all Benjamin Netanyahu seems to see is war, war and more war. His one-track mind has alienated longtime friends in the midst of genocide allegations. The few allies he has left fear his motives for sending IDF troops to take Gaza City can only mean one thing: “Destruction is his endgame, creating conditions for the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from this small strip of coastland and for its settlement by Jewish Israelis.”

Marc says Netanyahu “risks a future where 10 million Israelis (more than two million of whom are ethnically Arab) are left alone to face a much larger force of hostile neighbors.” To avoid that fate, someone who has access to Netanyahu’s ear must intervene. A group of 500+ former Israeli generals and intelligence chiefs think Trump is the best bet to stop the catastrophe.

“The US president has to be involved, and not by endorsing Gaza’s further occupation or enabling absurd plans for clearing Gaza to build a new Trumpian Riviera on its beaches,” Marc argues. “He needs to press Netanyahu to end the war and allow international aid organizations to surge food and medical supplies in.” Read the whole thing.

Telltale Charts

Somebody ought to buy Kristi Noem a Bloomberg subscription so that she can read this editorial about the perils of supercharging ICE: “Over the past two decades, the government has doled out close to half a trillion dollars for immigration enforcement and related efforts. The budgets for Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (both part of DHS) have roughly tripled since 2003. Hundreds of millions have been spent on failed surveillance technologies (recall the ‘virtual fence’?) and billions on the president’s ineffective ‘border wall,’” the editors write. “It’s hard to see how these added funds — more than the Transportation Department’s entire budget last year — are necessary, especially as federal deficit spending continues to spiral.”

I regret to inform you that some degenerate jerks are throwing sex toys on the court during WNBA games. Even more disturbing, they’re making money on it. I’m serious: More than $500,000 has been waged on Polymarket to predict when it will happen again. The troubling phenomenon has drawn some laughs — see: this admittedly hilarious Defector headline — but Adam Minter says it’s no joking matter: “For the WNBA and other sports leagues, manipulated bets are anything but funny. They threaten the health and safety of their players, harm the integrity of the game, and are emblematic of the reputational damage that loosely regulated prediction markets can do to leagues and their regulated gambling partners.”

Further Reading

On economic policy, the White House is its own worst enemy. — Clive Crook

Keir Starmer is walking a fine line in tackling immigration. — Martin Ivens

India’s tax reform needs more economics, less politics. — Mihir Sharma

A Japanese anime has unexpectedly become a symbol of resistance in Indonesia. — Karishma Vaswani

Natural disaster relief shouldn’t be a presidential spoils system. — Nia-Malika Henderson

Sixty years after the Voting Rights Act was signed, it’s under attack. — Stephen L. Carter

AI doesn’t just lie to you — it makes you believe that what’s false is true. — F.D. Flam

The world is switching to electric mobility with breathtaking speed. — David Fickling

ICYMI

The data behind Trump’s DC takeover.

The Fed chair search continues.

Harvard considers settling with the White House.

Kickers

Taylor Swift album rumors never stop, but this time might be it.

Don’t use this stick for s’mores, kids. (h/t Andrea Felsted)

Pamela Anderson’s homemade pickles will cost you $38.

Notes: Please send celebrity pickles and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

Sign up here and find us on Bluesky, TikTok, Instagram, LinkedIn and Threads.

Follow Us

Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. Learn more.

Want to sponsor this newsletter?