What to know:

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Well, it's that time of the month when the market holds its breath for the latest U.S. inflation figures, which set the tone for the Fed's interest-rate policy. Bloomberg's consensus estimates indicate the July figure, due at 8:30 a.m., is likely to show an increase in prices, driven by President Trump's tariffs.

Some traders have already begun hedging with short-dated bitcoin (BTC) put options in the $115,000–$118,000 range.

But here's the interesting part: Implied volatility metrics aren't showing any signs of panic. Volmex's 24-hour bitcoin implied volatility index stood at an annualized 31%, easily within its recent range, equating to an expected price swing of just 1.6% in the next 24 hours. The gauges for ether (ETH), solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) showed expected swings of 3.29%, 2.9% and 4.5%, respectively. None are out of the ordinary.

Still, traders may want to remain vigilant because August is known to bring significant volatility in stocks, which could quickly spill over into the crypto market. Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, the VIX, which measures the 30-day implied volatility in the S&P 500, spiked on Aug. 1 before calming down, a pattern that has historically presaged a surge in volatility.

"Curiously the VIX made a brief spike right about when the seasonal map said it would, and then subsequently has also calmed back down right on cue," Callum Thomas, the founder and head of research at Topdown Charts, noted. "The implication is that if this seasonal script-following persists then we are in for some heightened volatility in the coming weeks and months."

It's worth remembering that volatility is price-agnostic and can unfold bullishly if the CPI prints lower than expected. That would be a positive surprise to risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Ether (ETH) might benefit the most, as it has recently led BTC higher on the back of corporate adoption.

"Ethereum, supported by institutional inflows and corporate treasury buying, has a potential path toward testing prior all-time highs if conditions remain favorable," XBTO's chief investment officer Javier Rodriguez-Alarcón said in an email. BTC continues to serve as an anchor, he said. In contrast, the broader market remains concentrated at the top, according to Alarcón.

In traditional markets, gold could register sharp losses in the event of hotter-than-expected CPI, as its persistent failure to stage rallies above $3,400 since April suggests bullish exhaustion. Stay alert!

Crypto

• Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
• Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
• Aug. 20: Qubic (QUBIC), the fastest blockchain ever recorded, at over 15 million transactions per second and powered by Useful Proof of Work (UPoW), will undergo its first yearly halving event as part of a controlled emission model. Although gross emissions remain fixed at 1 trillion QUBIC tokens per week, the adaptive burn rate approved by the network’s Computors, the key validators and decision makers, will increase substantially — burning some 28.75 trillion tokens and reducing net effective emissions to about 21.25 trillion tokens.

Macro

• Aug. 12, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases July consumer price inflation data.
  • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.37% vs. Prev. 0.24%
  • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 5.34% vs. Prev. 5.35%
• Aug. 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases July consumer price inflation data.
  • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
  • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3% vs. Prev. 2.9%
  • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.3%
  • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.8% vs. Prev. 2.7%
• Aug. 13: A series of virtual meetings involving European leaders, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, NATO chief Mark Rutte, U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance among others to coordinate Ukraine support, apply pressure on Russia and discuss peace talks.
• Aug. 13, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases July consumer price inflation data.
  • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 1.8% vs. Prev. 1.6%
  • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 36.4% vs. Prev. 39.4%
• Aug. 14, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July producer price inflation data.
  • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.0%
  • Core PPI YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.6%
  • PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0%
  • PPI YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.3%
• Aug. 14, 7 p.m.: Peru's central bank announces its monetary policy decision.
  • Reference Interest Rate Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%
• Aug. 14, 10 p.m.: El Salvador's Statistics and Census Office, which is part of the Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador, releases July consumer price inflation data.
  • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.32%
  • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. -0.17%

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

• Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.02
• Aug. 12: Circle Internet Group (CRCL), pre-market
• Aug. 12: CoreWeave (CRWV), post-market
• Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market
• Aug. 14: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market
• Aug. 15: Sharplink Gaming (SBET), pre-market
• Aug. 15: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.07
• Aug. 18: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.12

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