Good morning. The federal agency that tracks industry data may be understating how sharply housing starts are slowing. That’s in focus today, along with a look at why Wall Street is shrugging off signs of a slowdown.

Trade: Canadian businesses are on track to file a record number of anti-dumping and countervailing duty complaints this year, as companies work to protect their home turf amid a global trade war.

• The United States and China extended a tariff truce for another 90 days.

Tech: Open Text Corp., one of Canada’s most valuable publicly traded technology companies, ousted its long-time chief executive officer and signalled it could sell off parts of the company.

Immigration: Ottawa has yet to launch a program announced last year that would grant permanent residency to low-wage workers.

Gold: Barrick Mining Corp. is taking a writedown of more than US$1-billion on its Malian operations as a dispute that shut down its biggest African mine shows few signs of a resolution.

Gold 2: U.S. President Donald Trump said he would not impose tariffs on gold, a move that ended days of speculation that the metal could be caught up in the global trade war.

A lot is riding on this morning’s U.S. inflation report, which could cement the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate move and test the President’s patience with the people who compile it.

• Economists expect headline inflation – the broad measure including food and energy – to rise 2.8 per cent year-over-year. Core inflation, which strips out those volatile costs, is forecast at 3 per cent, well above the Fed’s 2-per-cent target.
• Higher-than-expected numbers could revive stagflation fears as recent reports suggest a weakening labour market. Whatever the outcome, most analysts and investors are expecting a rate cut in September.
• Earlier this month, Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, after a jobs report showed U.S. hiring is stalling out.

The President did not offer evidence supporting this claim. Analyst David Rosenberg had questions.

Questions over counting: Statistics Canada’s building permits report later this morning will offer an early read on planned construction. But once work begins, the main federal measure is CMHC’s housing starts data. As Rachelle Younglai reports, industry trackers say the federal agency’s numbers are painting a rosier picture than their own counts suggest.

• Ottawa vs. industry: CMHC data show Toronto-region condo starts down 46 per cent this year, but industry trackers see steeper declines: Urbanation Inc. pegs the drop at 55 per cent, Zonda at 60 per cent.
• A measurement gap: CMHC records a start only when the full foundation footing is poured, while Urbanation counts from excavation and Zonda from the first shovel.
• A closer look: Because of CMHC’s later measurement point, the industry groups argue that figures can trail actual market conditions by months, underplaying the current slowdown.
• A fuller picture: The groups say earlier-stage counting better reflects present conditions and could help housing policy respond faster. CMHC says its approach ensures consistency nationwide and confirms projects are truly under way.

Preconstruction pressure: Warnings of a downturn are being echoed by Canada’s largest developers.

• The Large Urban Centre Alliance – whose members include Mattamy, Minto and Great Gulf – argue the foreign homebuyer ban, which was introduced during the pandemic’s real estate frenzy, is choking off preconstruction sales and the financing needed to get projects built.
• Allowing foreign purchases of new builds could unlock “billions” in capital, they say.
• The companies are also pushing for faster approvals on federal rental construction loans and a broader GST break for both buyers and developers.

Ottawa asks for help: The federal government is asking the development industry for input on how to design “Build Canada Homes,“ Younglai also reported yesterday.

• Prime Minister Mark Carney introduced the housing entity during the election campaign with a promise to double the country’s homebuilding – but very little has been revealed about how it will operate, including whether it will become a developer and construct homes.

Bids below asking: A new report says 76 per cent of GTA homes sold in July went for less than asking, the highest underbidding rate in 18 months.

• In nearly every neighbourhood, list prices outpaced what buyers were willing to pay. While condos remain the most underbid, single-family homes are seeing deep discounts, too, as sellers finally come to terms with postpandemic price drops.

The investor who wants to own a piece of your home: If you’re trying to crac