What to know:

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Two years ago, I posted on X that the new normal for U.S. inflation in the post-COVID world is much higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The market’s reaction to Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected U.S. core CPI report suggests a growing number of investors now share that view.

The data for July showed that annualized core CPI topped the 3% mark for the first time, primarily due to the effects of President Trump's tariffs. The Fed has only once cut interest rates when core inflation was above 3%.

Even so, bitcoin (BTC) rose by over 1% on Wednesday, and ether, often envisaged as an internet bond, jumped by over 8%. U.S. stocks also rallied as traders seemingly disregarded the inflation number and continued to price in a September rate cut.

This dynamic suggests that the 2% inflation target is likely dead. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said Tuesday that the Fed should consider a 50 basis-point cut in September.

This scenario is bullish for assets with inflation-hedge appeal, such as bitcoin and gold, as it implies that central banks are willing to overlook higher inflation to cut rates.

BTC recently traded near $120,000, while gold remained lackluster between $3,300 and $3,400. Several alternative cryptocurrencies posted gains in excess of 10% as retail investors flocked to cheaper coins.

"Bitcoin's current rally reveals a structural shift in crypto market participation that could define this cycle," Will K, CEO of decentralized trading platform VOOI and Co-Founder of Symbiosis.Finance, told CoinDesk. "While institutions gained exposure through ETFs, retail traders are quietly returning to DeFi platforms that have removed previous barriers to entry."

This dual-sided crypto adoption has changed the market composition, where institutional capital flows through regulated products and sophisticated retail re-engages through evolved decentralized infrastructure.

"Traders are no longer choosing between traditional and decentralized markets, they're using both simultaneously," K said.

Speaking of adoption, USDC issuer Circle unveiled its stablecoin-focused layer 1 blockchain, Arc. The blockchain focus on financial transactions: payments, currency exchange and capital markets. Nasdaq-listed ALT5 Sigma completed a $1.5 billion registered direct offering and private placement led by World Liberty Financial.

In traditional markets, the MOVE index, which measures implied volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, fell to its lowest level since January 2022. The continued decline supports easing of financial conditions and increased risk-taking in financial markets. Stay alert!

Crypto

• Aug. 13, 9:30 a.m.: Shares of Bullish, the parent company of Bullish Exchange and CoinDesk, begin trading on the NYSE under ticker BLSH. The shares were priced at $37 each, with 30 million on offer to raise $1.1 billion and value the company near $5.4 billion.

• Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
• Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
• Aug. 20: Qubic (QUBIC), the fastest blockchain ever recorded, will undergo its first yearly halving event as part of a controlled emission model. Although gross emissions remain fixed at one trillion QUBIC tokens per week, the adaptive burn rate will increase substantially — burning some 28.75 trillion tokens and reducing net effective emissions to about 21.25 trillion tokens.

Macro

• Aug. 13: A series of virtual meetings involving European leaders, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, NATO chief Mark Rutte, U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance among others to coordinate Ukraine support, apply pressure on Russia and discuss peace talks.
• Aug. 13, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases July consumer price inflation data.
  • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 1.8% vs. Prev. 1.6%
  • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 36.6% vs. Prev. 39.4%
• Aug. 14, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July producer price inflation data.
  • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.0%
  • Core PPI YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.6%
  • PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0%
  • PPI YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.3%
• Aug. 14, 7 p.m.: Peru's central bank announces its monetary policy decision.
  • Reference Interest Rate Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%
• Aug. 14, 10 p.m.: El Salvador's Statistics and Census Office, which is part of the Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador, releases July consumer price inflation data.
  • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.32%
  • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. -0.17%
• Aug. 15: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska to discuss potential peace terms for the ongoing war in Ukraine.
• Aug. 15, 12 p.m.: Colombia's National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases Q2 GDP growth data.
  • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 0.8%
  • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

• Aug. 14: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market
• Aug. 15: Sharplink Gaming (SBET), pre-market
• Aug. 15: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.07
• Aug. 18: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.12

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