Here’s something to chew on over today’s desk salad. As restaurant-chains reporter Daniela Sirtori covered second-quarter earnings, she noticed a trend: Diners are cutting back. Here’s what that might mean for fast food and beyond. Plus: Electric pickups aren’t the draw automakers hoped for, and more Americans are getting priced out of homeownership. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up. Normal people check employment numbers or inflation figures to suss out if the economy is in distress. Because I write about restaurant chains, my gauges tend to be less orthodox. I’m listening to what fast-food breakfasts and pricey salads are telling me, and my takeaway is that things aren’t all that great. We’re long past the days when Americans, buoyed by extra savings and pandemic-era stimulus checks, were spending on restaurant meals with abandon after being cooped up for months. Now, chains including McDonald’s, Wendy’s and Sweetgreen are warning that people are being far more cautious with their money. When that’s the case, one of the easiest things for them to cut is that morning McGriddle or Egg McMuffin. Breakfast is “absolutely the weakest” mealtime in terms of sales, McDonald’s Chief Executive Officer Chris Kempczinski said last week. The reasons are simple. “When consumer uncertainty increases and consumers choose to eat another meal at home, breakfast is often the first place that they do that with,” Ken Cook, Wendy’s interim CEO, said. It’s not that hard—or expensive—to buy a store-brand cereal and some milk and call it a day. (The inflation data released Tuesday shows the cost of food away from home rose 0.3% in June, while grocery costs fell 0.1%.) A Sweetgreen restaurant in Boston. Photographer: Adam Glanzman/Bloomberg That will tide you over until lunch, when it’s time to decide whether you want to spend about $15 for your Sweetgreen salad. Increasingly for many people the answer is no: The chain last week posted its second quarterly sales slump, which was much bigger than Wall Street was expecting. Although it’s true that the chain’s bowls have become synonymous with office lunches, they’re also pretty discretionary. Another fast-casual staple, the Mediterranean chain Cava, said on Tuesday that sales would grow more slowly this year than it had anticipated. Here again, it’s not hard to fix yourself a sandwich, find a cheaper salad from a competitor or even trade down to fast food. Taco Bell has been happy to capitalize on this last option. In the US, the (sort of) Mexican chain has managed to increase the number of diners coming through its doors, thanks in part to offerings whose prices border on the ridiculous. Cheesy bean and rice burrito (420 calories) for $1.59, anyone? There’s a lesson here for Sweetgreen. Economic stress completely recalibrates what people think is good value, and it’s on companies to meet consumers where they are. It seems like the salad chain has started to learn the lesson. Sweetgreen recently started offering $13 limited-time bowls, increased its chicken and tofu portions by 25% and introduced a loyalty program that offers some discounts. We’ll see if that’s enough to keep customers coming back for Harvest Bowls this fall. Related news for grocery buyers: Amazon to Offer Same-Day Food Delivery in 2,300 Cities |