Earlier this morning, I thought I had a pretty good grasp of the Intel situation.

• Then I read that SoftBank — led by Trump press conference pal Masa Son — has agreed to invest $2 billion into the U.S. chipmaker, which only bolstered my confidence.
• But a lot can change in a few hours.

What I thought: The U.S. government would soon acquire around a 10% equity stake in Intel, whose products division has been struggling to support its foundry.

• The White House then would put pressure on major U.S. tech companies to buy Intel chips, either by making a compelling national security case or (more likely) via an array of financial carrots and sticks.
• Maybe there would even be a move to split the company, taking the foundry private.

What happened: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was interviewed on CNBC.

• Bessent confirmed that the U.S. government is in talks to take an equity stake, via the conversion of untapped CHIPS Act loans (logistical details of which remain murky).
• Then he poured cold water on finding new customers for Intel chips.
• "The last thing we're going to do is take the stake and then try to drum up business," Bessent said. "There's no talk of trying to force companies to try and buy from Intel."

Zoom in: Bessent may be playing coy, not wanting to spook Silicon Valley before he even has a deal in place.

• If he's sincere, you're going to need a ton of AI to figure out how this isn't burning taxpayer dollars. Why spend $10 billion to "stabilize" a company without trying to solve the main reason it's unstable in the first place?
• To be clear, there are all sorts of second-order problems with the U.S. government bluntly coercing U.S. companies to alter their strategic decisions. But that's a slippery slope on which the Trump 2.0 administration has shown no hesitance to slide.

The bottom line: If you're going to create a national champion, it only makes sense to ensure there's a well-attended parade. Otherwise, it may be a short-lived title.

Eight Sleep, a New York-based developer of smart sleep products, has raised $100m in Series D funding.

Why it's the BFD: This comes just weeks after RFK Jr. said that the Department of Health and Human Services will launch a giant advertising campaign aimed at encouraging the use of wearables.

• "My vision is that every American is wearing a wearable within four years," he told Congress.
• Eight Sleep's smart mattress cover isn't technically a wearable — users lie on top of it — but still fits within the category.

Investors include HSG (fka: HongShan Capital/Sequoia Capital China) and insiders Valor Equity Partners, Founders Fund, and Y Combinator.

• Existing backer Khosla Ventures didn't participate.

Look ahead: CEO Matteo Franceschetti tells me that the company this month will file two applications with the FDA for medical device classifications — one for sleep apnea and another for menopause.

• Eight Sleep also plans to launch branded retail stores in 2026, and boost its Asia expansion efforts (thus the HSG participation).

⚡Aalo Atomics, an Austin-based developer of modular nuclear plants for data centers, raised $100m in Series B funding. Valor Equity Partners led, joined by Fine Structure Ventures, Hitachi Ventures, NRG Energy, Vamos Ventures, Tishman Speyer, Kindred Ventures, 50Y, Harpoon Ventures, Crescent Enterprises, Crosscut, Alumni Ventures, MCJ, Gaingels, and Nucleation Capital. axios.link/4lwQUHK

• Seemplicity, an Israeli cybersecurity workflow platform, raised $50m in Series B funding. Sienna VC led, joined by Essentia Venture Capital and insiders Glilot Capital Partners, NTTVC, and S Capital. seemplicity.io

• Medallion, an SF-based back-office management automation company, raised $43m. Acrew Capital led, joined by Washington Harbour Partners, Sequoia Capital, GV, Spark Capital, and NFDG. axios.link/45KEyG9

• Functionize, a software testing startup, raised $41m in Series B funding. Mumford Investments and LHH Investments led, joined by insiders Canvas Ventures and Wipro Ventures. axios.link/418kpsg

• Kasa, an SF-based provider of flexible accommodations, raised $40m led by Silver Lake Waterman, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4mkuYAM

• Keychain, a New York-based manufacturing platform for CPG companies, raised $30m in Series B funding. Wellington Management led, joined by Box Group. keychain.com