Good morning. Resolution inches forward after days of gridlock in airports and years of stalemate in war zones – more on that below, along with Quebec’s use of AI to get traffic moving and the chances for a Bank of Canada rate cut. But first:

• Poilievre touts his by-election win as a sign of political resilience
• Canada’s inflation rate slows more than expected to 1.7 per cent in July
• An Ontario teen died after waiting in agony for hours at an ER. Now his family wants an inquest

Air Canada planes lifted off last night for the first time in more than three days, after a bitter dispute between the carrier and its 10,000 flight attendants kept half a million passengers on the ground. Meanwhile, across the world, European and Arab mediators pushed for a breakthrough in two intractable, years-long wars: between Russia and Ukraine, and between Israel and Hamas. Potential truces seem marginally closer than they did last week.

But how likely are each of these deals, and what exactly will happen next? Let’s take a closer look.

The conflict: Air Canada and its flight attendants

The latest: The airline reached a tentative deal yesterday morning with the union that represents its flight attendants, though the agreement must still be approved by a majority vote. The contract would provide hourly raises of about 25 per cent over four years, and compensate Air Canada flight attendants for all the work they perform during boarding, deplaning and delays, which previously went unpaid. Ground-work pay would start at 50 per cent of their hourly rate in the first year and rise to 70 per cent by the fourth.

The likelihood of a deal: Sky-high! Hugh Pouliot, a spokesman for the Canadian Union of Public Employees, said that the flight attendants “will have the best ground duty provisions in North America by a long shot” – plus, they’ve already gone back to work. Air Canada’s chief operating officer, Mark Nasr, told The Globe that more than 100 flights restarted yesterday, though a full return to normal operations (700 flights a day) will take at least another week. Most of Air Canada’s fleet returned to domestic airports before Saturday’s strike and must undergo engine and safety checks before flying again.

What’s next: Several thousand passengers remain stranded abroad or stuck in travel limbo, and Air Canada needs to get them on their way. Still, public support for flight attendants remains high – part of the reason that CUPE was able to defy a federal back-to-work order and stay out on the picket line until it bagged a better deal. That was a calculated risk, labour experts told The Globe, and its success is sure to inspire other unions in future negotiations.

The conflict: Russia and Ukraine

The latest: After a mini-NATO delegation descended on Washington this week to smooth the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, attention has turned to the security guarantees that might be offered to Ukraine. To deter Russian attacks under a peace deal, European leaders keep pitching a “reassurance force” that looks a lot like NATO’s collective defence pledge – and yesterday, the White House said it could be backed by U.S. air support. (American boots on the ground are off the table.) NATO’s military chiefs will hold a video meeting later today to discuss options for Ukraine.

The likelihood of a deal: For all of Monday’s White House pleasantries, the delegation didn’t leave with a clear road map for peace. The sticking points in this three-year war remain: Russian President Vladimir Putin wants territory concessions, which Kyiv has rejected; Zelensky wants Western peacekeepers on its soil, which Moscow maintains is a red line. A hot mic did catch Trump telling French President Emmanuel Macron that he thought “Putin wants to make a deal for me, as crazy as that sounds.” But on Fox & Friends yesterday, Trump seemed to reconsider, saying “it’s possible he doesn’t want to make a deal.”

What’s next: Probably not a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, which Trump now insists isn’t necessary either for a longer-term peace deal or as a condition for further talks. But he said Putin has agreed to a face-to-face discussion with Zelensky in the coming weeks. The meeting might be in Budapest, it might be in Geneva, or it might not happen at all – the Kremlin played down its possibility yesterday.

The conflict: Israel and Hamas

The latest: Hamas has accepted a new proposal from Qatar and Egypt for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza. Under its terms, Hamas would release 10 hostages and 18 bodies in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, Israeli troops would partially withdraw from the 75 per cent of Gaza they control, and more humanitarian aid would enter the enclave. There were also reports yesterday that Cairo is putting pressure on Hamas to disarm and place its weapons in Egyptian custody.

The likelihood of a deal: The terms of this ceasefire proposal are nearly identical to a plan put forward by U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and accepted by Israel in late May. But “things have changed now,” a spokesperson for the Israeli government said yesterday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has laid out a plan for the future of Gaza,” which includes a large-scale military offensive to capture Gaza City, forcibly displacing one million Palestinians. He’s also demanding the release of all 20 living hostages at once.

What’s next: Netanyahu has so far shrugged off international calls to end the war and improve the horrific humanitarian situation in Gaza, but he is facing mounting pressure at home. On Sunday, more than 400,000 people turned out across Israel to demand a ceasefire, in one of the largest and fiercest protests in the past 22 months. Yesterday, the UN warned that the trickle of supplies Israel lets into the strip is “far below what is required to avert widespread starvation” and that almost half of all aid workers killed last year were in Gaza. Israel said it is weighing the new ceasefire proposal and will respond to Arab mediators by Friday.