If Governor Dan McKee’s reelection campaign was a basketball game, his first couple of possessions would have gone: turnover, turnover, shot clock violation, airball, bricked layup – and suddenly he’s dug himself into a quick hole.

McKee hit another bump yesterday when campaign manager Robert Silverstein left his job after less than three months. The official talking point is that both sides mutually agreed to part ways. The reality is McKee acts like the team owner, GM, coach, point guard, and mascot – which leaves little room for outsiders.

It’s still far too soon to entirely write off McKee’s reelection hopes. Technically, he doesn’t even know what the full Democratic primary field looks like. Helena Foulkes is definitely running. House Speaker Joe Shekarchi wants to run, but would prefer McKee to step away rather than running against an incumbent.

But it’s also true that very little has gone right for McKee in 2025, and even his strongest supporters think he’s off to a poor start.

Polling
The University of New Hampshire had McKee’s approval rating at 19 percent in May, Salve Regina University had him at 25 percent in June, and the Civic Health and Institutions Project (CHIP50) had him at 25 percent in June and August. One outlier is Morning Consult, which pegged McKee at 45 percent in July, but that was tied for second-lowest in the country among governors. 

Fundraising
McKee is the incumbent governor, but Foulkes has outraised him almost 3-to-1 since Jan. 1, and Shekarchi currently has $3 million more cash on hand in his campaign account than McKee does. McKee’s aides insist he’ll have enough to run a competitive campaign – especially with independent expenditures coming from labor.

The issues
McKee appears to be rolling with a “let’s stay the course” strategy while the Washington Bridge remains half-closed, the health care system is imploding, and the economy is fragile at best. He relies heavily on his vision for 2030 while the rest of Rhode Island isn’t especially pleased with how 2025 is going.

Campaign turmoil
McKee announced his reelection in March in part to assure the unions, top donors, and Shekarchi that he would not be exiting the race, but the announcement fell so flat that even the state Democratic Party didn’t bother to recognize it. Now Silverstein is out as campaign manager after three months.

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The silver lining: This isn’t a “first to 10 wins" kind of game, so McKee has time to right the ship. He still has a reasonable argument to make that he’s on the right side of issues that are popular with Democratic primary voters, like curbing assault weapons, raising the minimum wage, and expanding paid family leave.

But the campaign does appear to be at an inflection point. Foulkes supports the same issues, has unlimited money, and projects competence. Meanwhile, Shekarchi’s mere flirtation with running feeds the narrative that McKee’s campaign is already sinking.