OceanGate and the Trump Economy

1. Implosions

Looking at the various economic indicators from the last few weeks, I haven’t been able to stop thinking about the OceanGate submarine disaster. Because it sure looks like the American economy is headed toward an implosion.

You may remember the OceanGate story from two years ago. The company was founded by a charismatic rich guy named Stockton Rush. He was convinced that he had figured out how to build a cheap commercial submarine. He was warned by experts—over and over—that his designs were dangerous and would fail. He ignored the warnings and sold trips to the Titanic on his little sub, Titan.

“At some point, safety just is pure waste,” Stockton Rush once said. “I mean, if you just want to be safe, don’t get out of bed. Don’t get in your car. Don’t do anything.”

In another interview, Rush said, “I’ve broken some rules to make [Titan]. I think I’ve broken them with logic and good engineering behind me. The carbon fiber and titanium, there’s a rule you don’t do that. Well, I did.”

But of course, most rules—especially in engineering—exist for a reason. As the OceanGate sub began operation there were many warning signs that its design was compromised. For instance: Employees reported that when the craft submerged they could hear audible pops, the sound of the carbon fiber in the hull delaminating.

On June 18, 2023, the OceanGate vessel submerged carrying five people. At a depth of 10,978 feet it imploded in a fraction of a second. That rule about not mixing carbon fiber and titanium? It turns out that generations of smart engineers were right and the rich idiot was wrong.

The OceanGate disaster instantly killed Stockton Rush. It also killed some ultrawealthy people who had paid $250,000 each to ride in his death trap and should have known better. But it also killed a 19-year-old kid—the son of one of those wealthy people—who had was reportedly “terrified” about getting on the sub but did it to please his father. It is heartbreaking.

Which brings us to the Trump economy.

Every serious economist has warned that Trump’s economic program is dangerous:

Tariffs are harmful to economic growth. Inflation is lurking. The massive expansion of government debt puts pressure on the bond market. Corruption functions as a tax. Screwing around with economic data creates uncertainty and adds risk premiums to transactions. Canceling infrastructure programs out of ideological spite is wasteful.

There’s a rule that functional governments don’t do any of that. Well, Trump did.

And over the last few weeks the sounds we’ve been hearing in the data are the American economy delaminating and heading toward failure. Let’s take a listen, shall we?...