and the latest from CFR’s RealEcon Initiative.
RealEcon

Reimagining American Economic Leadership

An American flag flutters over a ship and shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro California, U.S., May 13, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake

Dear RealEcon readers,

President Donald Trump’s latest round of reciprocal tariffs went into effect on August 7.  On the same day, U.S. Trade Representative Jaimeson Greer declared in a New York Times op-ed that under Trump, “the United States has laid the foundation for a new global trading order” based on tariffs and bilateral deals that will “rebalance” the international trading system. 

Perhaps. But in his recently published Foreign Affairs article, CFR President Michael Froman offers a different vision for the future of the international trading system. Instead of a system based on threats and deals, Froman argues that the best option moving forward is an open plurilateral system where like-minded coalitions work together on shared issues. The full article can be found here. 

This edition of RealEcon features other great content on trade and international economics from CFR fellows and outside contributors, including pieces on higher food prices, by RealEcon Associate Director Allison J. Smith and RealEcon Director Matthew P. Goodman; on what actual trade agreements entail, by Fellow for Trade Policy Inu Manak and Research Associate Helena Kopans-Johnson; on U.S.-Brazil trade developments, by RealEcon advisor James Wallar; and on the independence of the Federal Reserve, by Senior Fellow Roger W. Ferguson Jr. and Research Associate Maximilian Hippold. 

Thank you for your interest in the RealEcon Initiative. I value your feedback on this newsletter and your ideas for how the initiative can have more impact.      

—Matthew P. Goodman, Director of the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Director of the CFR RealEcon Initiative   

 

Trade Fun Fact 

In terms of capital expenditure, how much have foreign companies pledged to invest in the U.S. so far during Trump's second term?

Answer at the bottom of the newsletter

 

Latest on Trade

After the Trade War: Building on the Ruins of a Rules-Based System

The global trading system as we have known it is dead. Moving forward, like-minded countries will need to create a new set of trade rules that reflect modern realities, observes Froman. Get his analysis   

Cranes are seen at the Port Newark Container Terminal in Newark, New Jersey, April 8, 2025. Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images

No, Trump Is Not Ushering In a New Global Trading Order

The US is simply denying itself the benefits of the system that already exists, writes Manak. Get her perspective

 	Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. 	https://www.ft.com/content/7514ce1b-14e7-4c2d-9aa6-252c6b6ed35a  	US trade representative Jamieson Greer, centre. The US is not only unilaterally setting tariff rates but serving as jury and executioner in evaluating and punishing perceived deviations from trade deals © Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters

Will Trump’s India Tariffs Affect a Critical U.S. Partnership?

The Trump administration’s proposed high tariffs on Indian imports raise concerns about the U.S.-India partnership. But the rates seem to be part of a negotiating tactic aimed at concluding a trade deal and possibly even a peace agreement, argues CFR Fellow Kenneth I. Juster. Find out more

Students at the Gurukul School of Art protest the U.S.-India relationship in light of new U.S.-imposed tariffs, in Mumbai, India. Ashish Vaishnav/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images

Trump’s Tariffs Could Decimate Asia’s Smallest Economies and Weaken U.S. Influence

In the shadow of the U.S.-China trade war, unchallenged U.S. tariff rates could ruin the economies of Southeast Asia’s poorest states, write CFR Fellow Joshua Kurlantzick and Research Associate Annabel Richter. Read their blog post

Timor-Leste's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao delivers remarks during the 25th Anniversary of the country's referendum and independence celebrations in Dili, East Timor, on August 30, 2024. Lirio da Fonseca/Reuters

Also From RealEcon 

Perspectives

America’s Coming Crash

The possibility of a once-in-a-century U.S. debt crisis no longer seems far-fetched. Even if the country avoids an outright debt crisis, a sharp erosion of confidence in its creditworthiness would have profound consequences, warns CFR Fellow Kenneth S. Rogoff. Read the piece

Image of United States Half Submerged in Water

Trade and Investment

Trade Agreements, Explained

The United States maintains fewer comprehensive trade agreements than other large economies and is increasingly turning toward nonbinding economic frameworks with other countries, risking its continued influence in the global trading system, explain Manak and Kopans-Johnson. Read more

USPres George Bush and Fernando Collor de Mello of Brazil watch as Trade Reps. Carla Hills of the US and Paraguayan Forgn Minister Alexis Fruto, Argetine FM F Guido di Tella, Brazil's FM Hector Gros, and Uruguayan FM Francisco Rezek sign trade agreement. Reuters/Rick Wilking

The U.S. Trade Case on Brazil: Expediency Over Principles

Recent U.S. pressure on Brazil is a reminder that countries should reserve their legal right to retaliate to avoid being complicit in undermining the rules-based trading system, observes Wallar. Get the analysis

A demonstrator holds a sign reading in Portuguese

Domestic Foundations  

Consumers Should Brace Themselves for Higher Food Prices

A food distributor in Arizona warns that tariffs will soon lead to higher prices and shortages at the grocery store, write Smith and Goodman. Check out the article

A person shops for groceries in New York City, U.S., July 15, 2025. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon

Brazil and the BRICS, With Oliver Stuenkel

Oliver Stuenkel, associate professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s School of International Relations in São Paulo, Brazil, sits down with host James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies distinguished senior fellow in U.S. foreign policy and director of fellowship affairs, on the CFR podcast The President’s Inbox to discuss the recent BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro and what Brazil sees as the group’s purpose. 

Listen
Podcast: The President's Inbox

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