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Hi, y’all. Welcome back to The Opposition. Today’s edition is about the upcoming special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. I’m fascinated by this race not just because it’s in my backyard—I live about a mile outside the district—but because of what it can tell us about the national redistricting fight and how the Democratic party plans to compete in the redder and more rural parts of the country. Over the next few months, I’ll periodically bring y’all updates on this race—very likely the last federal race in a competitive district until the midterms next year.
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–Lauren
‘Blood in the Water’: Dems Smell GOP Weakness But Aren’t Sure How to Attack
Will GOP gerrymandering and unpopular Trump policies bite Republicans in the ass? A December special election could test that theory.
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Nashville, Tennessee
DEMOCRATIC LEADERS HAVE SPENT the past few weeks frantically trying to convince their party—and themselves—that Donald Trump’s redistricting scheme could backfire on the GOP. They’ve even attempted to popularize the term “dummymander,” arguing that Republicans could spread themselves too thin, diluting their vote share too much in some districts, giving Democrats a fighting chance to flip ruby-red seats.
“Republican members of Congress should be deeply worried that they could lose in a wave election,” Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) told me a few weeks ago about the Texas GOP mid-decade redistricting plan. “They may wind up taking out some of their own.”
That might be wishful thinking. Donald Trump would have carried all of the new Texas districts—which that state’s legislature is on track to pass this week—by double digits. But as other GOP-controlled states threaten to redraw their congressional maps, Democrats may have no choice but to seriously compete in these types of districts in order to win back the House.
The good news for Democrats is that they won’t have to wait until next November to find out whether their “dummymander” theory carries any weight. In fact, the party will get an early answer this December...
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