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In a move that is as performative as sending battleships to fight a cartel, the Trump Justice Department is investigating whether the D.C. Police Department manipulated data to make crime rates appear lower. This move, confirmed by “two senior law enforcement officials,” comes on the heels of Donald Trump falsely claiming there was a crime epidemic in the nation’s capital to justify his attempted takeover of law enforcement. Yet earlier this year, Trump’s favorite failed U.S. Attorney nominee, Ed Martin, had celebrated the favorable numbers.
Trump needed to save face. Hence the investigation. Trump, by the way, took to social media to post about the probe: "D.C. gave Fake Crime numbers in order to create a false illusion of safety. This is a very bad and dangerous thing to do, and they are under serious investigation for so doing!" he wrote on Truth Social. Predictably, he’s tying this to his decision to send federal law enforcement officers and the D.C. National Guard onto the city’s streets.
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When asked what the post meant, Trump responded, "They are giving us phony crime stats."
The origin of the federal investigation, overseen by new U.S. Attorney and former Fox News Host Jeanine Pirro, appears to be an investigation conducted by the Metropolitan Police Department itself. Back in May, they suspended a commander as they began looking into allegations, which he denied, that he altered crime data.
NBC reported that “This investigation, however, is expected to go much further, looking at other police and city officials for possible wrongdoing.” That’s odd for a number of reasons. First off, it’s unlikely that the D.C. police would be aggressively investigating if there were a high-level conspiracy inside the Department. The commander under investigation would almost certainly have raised those allegations himself to protect his position. Even if there is any truth to this, it’s unclear what the charges—let alone federal charges—would be. It would more likely be an administrative matter. There’s nothing unusual about the numbers coming out of the District. They mirror the nationwide drop in crime during the Biden administration. In fact, D.C. slightly underperforms that curve.
Occam’s razor suggests that the simplest explanation is usually the best one. Trump is trying to justify his unpopular strongman tactic in D.C. This is a familiar refrain we’ve heard from him before—calling for a phony investigation to give him room to maneuver.
Under the Biden, Obama, or Bush administrations, word of an investigation like this would have been viewed as one being conducted in good faith. But there is no more presumption of regularity with this administration, which has stretched the limits of the rule of law and even now has launched criminal investigations into Trump enemies like New York Attorney General Letitia James and Democratic Senator Adam Schiff, despite claims from DOJ officials during their confirmations that there was no revenge agenda. This is exactly what we warned about before the election. Using prosecutions as a political weapon is the hallmark of a would-be dictator in a banana republic.
An investigation like this might not seem like a big deal given the broader scope of events this week. Sometimes it’s the details that let us see the forest.
If connecting the dots between law and politics feels confusing, that’s because it often is—and most of the time, the threads are invisible unless you’ve spent years inside the system. That’s what I do here: break down the complexities so they’re clear, useful, and grounded in expertise. If you value that kind of analysis, subscribe to Civil Discourse, if you don’t already, and stay connected to the bigger picture.
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Joyce
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