Principals

1. GOP’s economic challenge
2. Incomes may fall in 2027
3. SCOTUS weighs tariffs
4. Poland downs Russian drones
5. Trump reacts to Qatar strike
6. DC takeover ends

PDB: Ousted CDC director to testify

Fed’s Cook can stay, court says … Senate panel votes on Miran nomination … Democrat wins Virginia special election

Economy gives GOP a political headache

If elections are a referendum on the economy, President Donald Trump and his GOP allies in Congress have their work cut out for them, Semafor’s Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller and Shelby Talcott report. Unemployment is rising, tariffs are still biting, and inflation hasn’t yet abated. “This is the low point,” a White House official said, predicting brighter days ahead. The administration anticipates the revisions will prompt “a cycle of rate cuts and loosening up the monetary policy” that voters will feel on a big level by the time the midterms come around. Still, recent elections demonstrated that what voters are feeling is just as important — if not more so — than hard economic data. “The headwinds that matter the most to an election are how American citizens are feeling about things, not so much the official numbers,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D.

Liberal group: 99% will see incomes hit

Ninety-nine percent of Americans will see their incomes decrease in 2027 due to the combined effects of Trump’s tariffs and megabill, according to an analysis of nonpartisan data by the left-leaning Center for American Progress out today. The analysis, shared first with Semafor, found that all Americans will make less in 2029 after some of the megabill’s tax provisions expire.

By then, “average incomes are down by 5% for the poorest and 2% for folks in the middle class,” author Corey Husak said. “We’re trying to see what people are going to be feeling — and if you’re losing 2% to 5% of your income, you’re probably going to be feeling that.” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said that “economic forecasters made similar doom-and-gloom predictions during President Trump’s first term, when the very same agenda … unleashed historic job, wage and economic growth.”

— Eleanor Mueller

SCOTUS takes up tariffs case quickly

Mark your calendars for November, when the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in a case that could make or break Trump’s tariff regime. The high court could deliver a ruling by the end of this year. This will mark the first time the Supreme Court has weighed in directly on a major second-term Trump policy, The Wall Street Journal notes, but it’s unlikely to be the last, as his other policies work their way through lower-court rulings and temporary stays. In the latest example, Chief Justice John Roberts on Tuesday allowed the White House to keep billions in foreign aid frozen for now. In the meantime, the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act remain in force. The producer inflation report out later today could shed more light on how they’re affecting the US economy.

Poland shoots down Russian drones

NATO member Poland said it shot down Russian drones in its airspace, potentially marking a major escalation in the Ukraine war. Warsaw said the “huge number” of aircraft represented an “act of aggression,” the first such incident actively involving the Western military alliance’s forces engaging Russia’s since the Kremlin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Moscow did not immediately comment. The episode came shortly after a top Russian security official threatened Finland — which joined NATO as a result of the war — with “the collapse of Finnish statehood forever.” Russian President Vladimir Putin is “emboldened” by recent shows of support from Beijing, CNN reported: One US senator said Putin was “testing [NATO’s] resolve” to protect its eastern members from Moscow’s aggression.

Trump grapples with Israel’s Qatar strike

The White House is trying to pick up the pieces after Israel’s strike against Hamas leaders inside Qatar caught the administration off guard. Trump announced his administration would finalize a defense cooperation agreement with Qatar following the strike, which came as Hamas leadership met to discuss his latest peace proposal. “This was a decision made by Prime Minister Netanyahu, it was not a decision made by me,” a clearly bothered Trump wrote on Truth Social, attempting to distance the US from the strike. US officials got such a last-minute warning that they were unable to intervene or inform Qatar in time (a member of the country’s internal security forces was killed, as well as multiple Hamas officials), Axios reported. While officials view “eliminating Hamas” as “a worthy goal,” as Trump put it, they see striking inside Qatar as a step too far.

— Shelby Talcott

DC takeover ends, sort of

Trump’s 30-day takeover of DC’s police department expires today, but that won’t be the end of tensions between the federal government and the district. Today the House Oversight Committee will consider more than a dozen bills related to DC, including one that calls for the president, not the district’s residents, to select the DC attorney general. And members of the National Guard are staying put for now: The Army extended the DC guard’s deployment until as late as Nov. 30, and guards from other states could stay longer. Over the past month, crime in the district — especially property crime — has declined and homeless encampments have been cleared, but the stepped-up law enforcement presence has hurt tourism and restaurants, CNN reported. DC Mayor Muriel Bowser has credited the crackdown with lowering crime while criticizing the military deployment (which DC has sued over).

Sangbu Kim, Vice President for Digital, World Bank, will join the stage at The Next 3 Billion — the premier US summit focused on connecting the unconnected. Semafor editors will sit down with global executives and thought leaders to highlight the economic, social, and global impact of bringing the next three billion people online.

September 24, 2025 | New York City | Delegate Application →

Blindspot: Crime and disaster

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: President Trump condemned the fatal stabbing of a Ukrainian refugee in North Carolina, which has fueled a firestorm on the right over crime in Democrat-run cities.

What the Right isn’t reading: Trump is taking longer to issue federal disaster declarations than his predecessors, according to an Associated Press analysis. 

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: In a rare point of bipartisan agreement, lawmakers are on the brink of repealing economic sanctions on Syria — but the House and Senate still need to iron out differences in their versions of the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act.

Playbook: The DNC is targeting five House Republicans with Jeffrey Epstein-related digital ads and will today send a mobile billboard around DC featuring President Trump’s alleged birthday letter.

WaPo: House Speaker Mike Johnson said there was no need to extend Trump’s takeover of DC’s police, given that the city’s Mayor Muriel Bowser had laid out an “indefinite welcome mat” for troops.

Axios: The White House wants to take a slice of the revenue generated by patents that university scientists invent using federal funds, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said, potentially amounting to tens or hundreds of billions of dollars.

White House

• President Trump sidestepped questions about the lewd letter he allegedly sent to Jeffrey Epstein on his birthday in an interview with NBC, calling it a “dead issue.”
• Trump signed a memo ordering HHS to tighten regulatory scrutiny on direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical ads. — Politico

Congress

• Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., said he uncovered records of Anthony Fauci telling officials to delete an email, leading Paul to ask for more records and for Fauci to testify before his committee, Burgess Everett reports.
• Ousted CDC Director Susan Monarez will testify before the Senate health panel next week, Chair Bill Cassidy said.

Outside the Beltway

• Progressives are trying to entice New York City Comptroller Brad Lander into primarying sitting Rep. Dan Goldman with a promising poll, Semafor’s David Weigel scoops.
• Missouri state lawmakers approved a new congressional map that would likely deliver an additional House seat to Republicans.