Good morning. Politicians head back to Ottawa from all parts Canada next week to tackle a crowded economic agenda. Among the “nation-building” projects identified by the federal government is a pipeline it supports – but no company has stepped forward to build. That’s in focus today, along with a look at how staycationing Canadians hurt the U.S. travel industry this summer.

Mining: The Anglo-Teck deal will be the first for Ottawa’s ‘exceptional circumstances’ test for approval.

Energy: The chief executive of Cenovus says he doesn’t plan to raise his bid for MEG Energy, dismissing a rival offer from Strathcona as “not credible.”

Banks: TD Bank’s new CEO is putting his stamp on the lender, hiring its new COO from outside and revamping its legal team.

• U.S. markets – and the country’s President – were buoyed by a gauge of prices at the wholesale level, which unexpectedly dropped in August. Today’s key consumer price index will test Donald Trump’s social media post after yesterday‘s report: “Just out: No Inflation!!!”
• Earnings out today include Sobeys parent Empire Co. Ltd.

Four months after being elected Prime Minister on the promise of fighting an antagonistic United States and bolstering Canada’s economy, Mark Carney is expected today to reveal the first wave of “nation-building” projects. Three dozen projects were on the list, including upgrades to ports, transmission lines, and – perhaps most conspicuously – a potential pipeline to bring Alberta oil through northwest British Columbia to the Pacific Coast. There’s just one thing missing: someone who wants to build it.

• Carney to unveil first ‘nation-building’ projects today
• Earlier exclusive: Internal list of 32 potential infrastructure projects includes new oil pipeline

Anyone? Bueller?

Carney didn’t confirm yesterday whether a new oil pipeline will be in the first wave of projects announced today. (Another round is set for the fall.) Regardless of the timing, he has said such a proposal would be “highly, highly likely” to be designated as nationally important, but only if it comes from the private sector : “If there is a proposal, then it would be highly likely to be designated. We’re not going to create one ourselves.”

The Building Canada Act, passed in June, gives his cabinet the power to accelerate projects deemed in the national interest. The uneasy dynamics of building pipelines in Canada, however, are keeping oil majors from rushing forward, even with Carney’s vow to accelerate approvals through his new Major Projects Office in Calgary.

The Trans Mountain expansion was plagued by years of delays and ballooning costs, while earlier East-West pipeline proposals such as Northern Gateway and Energy East collapsed under a mix of regulatory hurdles and political resistance.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is pressing for another westward line and says she is working with companies on a proposal. But any pipeline would run into federal emissions caps, opposition from B.C. Premier David Eby, and warnings from Indigenous leaders about repeating the mistakes of past megaprojects. Yesterday, Ottawa announced the appointment of Treaty 8 Grand Chief Trevor Mercredi – a sharp critic of the law behind Carney’s new approvals regime – to the Indigenous Advisory Council that will advise on its implementation.

• Ottawa taps major-projects critic to Indigenous Advisory Council
• Carney appoints former Trans Mountain head to lead major projects office
• Smith says plan for new West Coast oil pipeline ‘pretty close’

The rehabilitation of oil and gas

That backdrop is keeping oil giants on the sidelines, even with Carney’s plan to streamline approvals – and even with a global shift that has cast oil and gas in a more positive light. A report published last week by S&P Global Commodity Insights found fossil fuel demand to be stronger than expected, while renewable power is expanding faster than forecasts.

The phrase “energy transition” itself no longer accurately captures the world as it takes shape, the report’s authors write. Instead, countries face overlapping and sometimes conflicting trajectories – hydrocarbons retaining a long future in the global mix, renewables accelerating, and geopolitical fragmentation shaping who benefits.

And in an era of tariff walls and economic uncertainty, The Globe’s Tim Shufelt recently wrote, fossil fuels are being reframed as a source of economic independence in Canada – a commodity the S&P report said will remain in high demand even as renewables surge.

• Analysis: The oil sands could be ‘the ultimate ATM’ for Canada – and investors
• The full S&P report: ‘Beyond the energy transition’

A fork in the road

For Canada, then, demand for its oil and gas will persist for decades – even if the returns move with volatile markets and uneven global progress.

All that remains is the question of whether a new pipeline to the West Coast is necessary – or, more to the point, whether anyone in the private sector sees it as worth pursuing. For all the pushback from political opponents who argue the expanded Trans Mountain line already has the capacity to handle increased demand, the market will be the deciding factor.

Yet no company has stepped forward to sponsor another line west. That hesitation hung over