Balance of Power
In finding former President Jair Bolsonaro guilty of plotting to stay in power after his 2022 election defeat, Brazil’s Supreme Court has plunged the country into the unknown.
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The conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro is a historic moment for Brazil. For the first time, a nation that has experienced numerous coup attempts held a high-ranking official accountable for one.

But in finding Bolsonaro guilty of plotting to stay in power after his 2022 election defeat, Brazil’s Supreme Court also plunged the country into the unknown — with massive consequences for Latin America’s biggest economy and the very democracy judges say they’re protecting.

The most immediate question is what Donald Trump will do. He’s already slapped Brazil with tariffs and sanctioned the judge overseeing the trial, calling it a “witch hunt.”

The court and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are now bracing for the backlash.

Trump and Bolsonaro at the White House in 2019. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

Longer-term uncertainty hangs over what it will mean for Brazil’s 2026 election.

The guilty verdict piles pressure on the former president to relinquish dreams of running again and name a successor, with many eyeing Sao Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas as a technocratic alternative to Bolsonaro’s brash right-wing politics and Lula’s leftism.

But hopes of an escape from the personality-driven polarization gripping Brazil seem vanishingly thin.

A plurality of Brazilians see the trial as just. But overall, they’re split on whether a Supreme Court that’s faced allegations of overreach is a defender of democracy or a threat to it.

Bolsonaro allies are meanwhile pushing to grant him amnesty, a long shot that risks provoking a crisis between Congress and the court.

Then there’s Freitas, whose cautious efforts to appease the right while maintaining moderate credentials crumbled after he accused the court of “tyranny.”

It’s a pivot that could win him Bolsonaro’s blessing to run next year. But it was also an admission: Bolsonaro remains the king of the Brazilian right.

Bolsonaro may be heading to prison. But the style of authoritarian populism he helped unleash isn’t necessarily going with him. Travis Waldron

Bolsonaro supporters clash with police in Brasilia in January 2023. Photographer: Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images

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China urged Mexico to “think twice” before levying trade tariffs, a warning that could signal Beijing’s willingness to retaliate over a move it sees as giving into demands from the Trump administration. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Madrid to discuss trade and security issues in another sign that talks between the two sides are heating up. Meanwhile, the US and India are close to resolving differences over a trade deal, according to Trump’s pick for ambassador.

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Trump asked a federal appeals court to immediately pause a lower-court decision blocking his ouster of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, the latest sign that the administration wants to put the case on a fast track to the US Supreme Court.

Nepal’s protest leaders and the army have been holding talks for two days to choose an interim prime minister and restore order after deadly unrest toppled the Himalayan nation’s senior leadership this week.

Hundreds of South Korean workers detained last week in a US immigration sweep returned home to a rousing welcome, ending a weeklong ordeal in an episode that has raised doubts about Korean investment and strained ties between the two allies.

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Chart of the Day

As mounting US pressure on Venezuela sparks a rally in the Latin American country’s defaulted bonds, some debt holders are betting on more gains to come in the event of regime change. The nation’s dollar notes have surged since late August — when Trump raised the stakes by sending a military fleet off the Venezuelan coast as a part of an anti-narcotics operation — and are hovering around the highest since the US imposed sanctions in 2019.

And Finally

Sparsely inhabited regions in Spain, where rural areas account for more than four-fifths of land but are home to only 16% of the population, have become known as “España Vacía,” or “Empty Spain.” In an effort to rehabilitate them, public and private actors are experimenting with ways to reverse demographic decline, and the government even has a ministry focused on the issue.

The Spanish hamlet of Villamorón, home to only one registered inhabitant. Photographer: Ana Maria Arevalo Gosen/Bloomberg

Pop quiz (no cheating!). Which country this week inaugurated Africa’s biggest hydroelectric dam? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net

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