Happy Sunday! It was quite a week for AI, with Oracle’s lights-out forecast helping to keep the hype train rolling at full speed… But quietly, some US Census Bureau data showed that AI adoption among large businesses might be slowing. Today, we’re exploring that survey, before looking at the economics of ride-hailing in an interview with the CEO of Lyft.
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Though more public companies than ever are talking about AI — a whopping 58% of the S&P 500 Index mentioned the technology in the most recent earnings season, per a report from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research — the number of large firms actually using it is slightly different.
The latest update from the US Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey of 1.2 million firms suggests that large companies, having experimented with the tools over the last year, might be starting to touch the brakes on their actual AI utilization.
A trend noted by Apollo’s chief economist, Torsten Sløk, shows that as of the second and third week of August, AI adoption in businesses with more than 250 employees had dropped to 9% from a 15% peak in the first two weeks of June. Only 14% of the companies surveyed in the same period in August expected to use AI in their businesses in the next six months, too, down from 19% in June.
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There could be some seasonal effects at play, but given how much is riding on the AI boom, that feels like a significant data point that runs contradictory to the continued AI enthusiasm, and wouldn’t yet show up in the earnings of major AI enablers like Nvidia and Broadcom.
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The Goldman Sachs report also describes an “inevitable slowdown” in AI-related capital expenditure growth, based on consensus estimates for the third and fourth quarters of 2025.
While Big Tech’s eye-popping growth in capital expenditures would be hard to sustain long-term, it is less clear if this forecast cooling is due to an actual decline in demand for AI. The report contains a warning for investors: “If the slowdown in capex is viewed as a reflection of slowing AI demand, that would weigh on the long-term earnings growth outlooks of these companies.” |
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Other great stories from the week |
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Lyft’s CEO on the economics of robotaxis, how to end surge pricing, and reviving his company |
Lyft has long had a reputation for living in the shadow of Uber, its larger and more profitable competitor.
But if you ask CEO David Risher, the company is in the middle of a major turnaround, even if it’s taking Wall Street a while to get up to speed. The ride-share company recently reported its third consecutive profitable quarter after years of losses, and is dipping into new markets. “People have this mindset of somehow if you’re smaller than the other guy in the market, you must be losing,” Risher said. |
We recently sat down with Risher — arguably one of the most avuncular executives in Silicon Valley, known for his loud shirts and Citi Bike commutes — who became Lyft’s CEO in 2023 after joining the board two years earlier. Under his leadership, Lyft expanded outside of North America for the first time this year and struck deals with automated vehicle companies to begin offering driverless rides in certain cities domestically and internationally.
Can he convince Wall Street that Lyft hasn’t lost too much ground to Uber? See what the CEO thinks, as well as whether surge pricing is worth the backlash from customers, and how robotaxis will affect the economics of ride-hailing. |
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