Principals

1. Shutdown solutions?
2. Alarm over DOGE 2.0
3. Shutdown messaging wars
4. Carr to testify
5. Low media trust
6. Trump’s Venezuela threat
7. Qatar’s security guarantee

PDB: The Fed’s Lisa Cook is staying put for now

WSJ: Colleges asked to sign ‘compact’ for funding advantage … Four people injured in UK synagogue attack … Intercept of Gaza aid flotilla sparks protests

Talks start as shutdown drags on

The government shutdown will drag into Friday — at least — after Wednesday’s failed votes, although bipartisan talks are happening on the sidelines. “The Democrats own the shutdown,” Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, told Semafor. “Nevertheless I am always willing to talk and to see if there’s a way out of this impasse.” Democrats are floating a three- or four-week spending bill aligned with the Nov. 1 open enrollment period for the Affordable Care Act; Republicans are still mostly refusing any agreement on ACA subsidies until the government reopens. After three Democratic defections on the House’s spending bill, it doesn’t appear anyone else is budging. “I’m not sure what’s going to open this up,” said Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., who said the pool of potential ‘yes’ votes is small. It’s now possible the Senate doesn’t vote over the weekend either, another sign of a stalemate.

— Burgess Everett

DOGE 2.0 sparks bipartisan alarm

President Donald Trump’s budget guru wants to use a shutdown to slash the federal government in the same vein as Elon Musk’s now-quiet Department of Government Efficiency — but even Republicans who supported that initiative are warning OMB Director Russ Vought to go slow, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller, Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott report. Since funding lapsed Tuesday night, Vought has paused infrastructure projects in New York City and clean energy projects across 16 states while warning House Republicans that federal employees will start getting laid off later this week. It’s causing heartburn on both sides of the aisle. “Russ is less politically in tune than the president,” Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., said. “We, as Republicans, have never had so much moral high ground on a government funding bill in our lives. … I just don’t see why we would squander it.”

GOP pushes ‘illegal’ label in shutdown

Undocumented immigrants are ineligible for federally funded health care plans, a refrain House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has been quick to repeat. But as both parties dig in for a shutdown over Affordable Care Act subsidies, Semafor’s David Weigel writes, Republicans are framing the debate as a zero-sum struggle, with health dollars going to either Americans or “illegals,” flexibly defined. Vice President JD Vance has taken point on that, accusing Democrats of playing games with asylum and refugee status to allow migrants to access benefits, and arguing even emergency room care should be off-limits. Democrats have balked at this latest, seeing ER payments and care for migrants with, for example, refugee status as noncontroversial. “That’s such a small part of where [the funding] could go,” Rep. Mark Pocan, D-Wis., said on a call with reporters Wednesday. “That’s the best they’ve got?”

Carr to testify before Senate Commerce

FCC Chair Brendan Carr has agreed to testify before the Senate, after his pressure on Disney and affiliate networks led them to temporarily suspend late-night host Jimmy Kimmel’s show, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. Carr and two other FCC commissioners are expected to appear before the Senate Commerce Committee in November, though the precise timing is TBD. The dustup began last month, when Carr objected to a line Kimmel delivered on-air about Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer, saying the FCC could deal with the remarks “the easy way or the hard way.” Carr has since denied that he meant that as a direct threat, but committee chair Ted Cruz, R-Texas, has been harshly critical of him, comparing his comments to a mob boss’s threats and calling them “dangerous as hell.”

Trust in US media hits new low

Fewer Americans have confidence in newspapers, television, and other forms of mass media than ever before. Twenty-eight percent of US adults report having a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust that mass media will report the news fully, accurately, and fairly, according to new Gallup polling, the first time that figure has fallen below 30%. There’s a clear partisan divide, with far fewer Republicans expressing confidence in mass media (8%) than Democrats (51%) and independents (27%), though the latter two groups still express historically low trust. The polling is the latest evidence that traditional journalism in the US is facing a moment of crisis, as Trump attacks outlets and reporters, and as Americans lose faith in legacy publications and flock to podcasts and other, newer forms of media.

Trump not ruling out Venezuela strikes

The Trump administration isn’t ruling out launching military strikes inside Venezuela as it continues its campaign against drug cartels, a senior Trump administration official confirmed to Semafor. “If Venezuela is sending drug cartels to the United States by land or sea, he’ll consider action on it,” the official added, expanding on comments made by Trump earlier this week hinting at further action against alleged cartel members “coming by land.” The comments forecast what might be next for Venezuela, after Trump asserted there are “absolutely no drugs” coming into the US by water following the administration’s deadly strikes against alleged drug boats off the Venezuelan coast. Notably, the US military continues its buildup in the region — prompting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to make preparations this week for a state of emergency in the country.

— Shelby Talcott

Trump’s ‘unprecedented’ Qatar pledge

Trump quietly signed a NATO-like security guarantee with Qatar this week, his latest run around Congress’ authority. The order — signed the same day as Trump encouraged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to apologize to Qatar for last month’s attack — declares that the US should treat any attack on Qatar “as a threat to the peace and security of the” US and “take all lawful and appropriate measures — including diplomatic, economic, and, if necessary, military” action. The order isn’t legally binding like NATO’s Article 5 because it hasn’t been passed by the Senate, but nevertheless represents an “unprecedented” commitment by the US to an Arab country, Axios writes. Politico called it a “shocking departure from the administration’s America First approach to foreign policy.” Republicans critical of Doha might have questions.

Stephen Miran, Governor, Federal Reserve, will join the stage at the Fall Edition of Semafor’s World Economy Summit. Hosted in the Gallup Great Hall and spanning eight sessions over two days, Semafor editors will conduct on-the-record interviews on the state of global growth and finance, AI advancements, powering global energy needs, and the forces reshaping the world economy.

Each session brings together the leaders and forces most directly shaping the global economy, with programming powered by Semafor’s world-class editorial and executive leadership.

Oct. 15 & 16, 2025 | Washington, DC | Request Invitation

Blindspot: Investigations

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: The Justice Department is investigating the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, over its handling of what the White House describes as antisemitism on campus.

What the Right isn’t reading: The US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission will stop investigating claims about company policies that disproportionately harm employees belonging to certain groups, but that are not explicitly discriminatory, The Associated Press reported.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Democratic Sen. Chris Coons, seen as a bipartisan dealmaker, said of the shutdown debate: “This is not going to be easy to solve. But our caucus is united, and [Chuck] Schumer is leading well in this moment.”

Playbook: Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he’s open to negotiating on health care subsidies if a “critical mass” of Democrats support the House-passed funding bill to end the shutdown.

WaPo: A poll of 1,000 Americans found that almost half (47%) blamed President Trump and Republicans in Congress for the shutdown, while 30% blamed Democrats. Twenty-three percent said they were unsure.

Axios: Food inflation remains a key concern for voters: Almost half of respondents surveyed by The Harris Poll said groceries were harder to afford than a year ago, compared with 19% who said easier and 34% who said about the same.