| |  | The Lead Brief | We’re on day two of a government shutdown, and both parties appear to be holding tough on their negotiating positions. Democrats still want a deal on health care — in particular, an extension of tax credits that help people pay for insurance on marketplace exchanges — and Republicans are saying the discussion over the policies must wait for a larger year-end package. On Friday, the Senate will again vote on the House-passed stopgap government funding measure, in addition to a counterproposal from Democrats that included an extension of the Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies. Both bills failed in the Senate on Wednesday. Let’s walk through some scenarios of how a bill could ultimately pass, reopen the government and maybe reopen negotiations on ACA subsidies: → Five more Democrats join Republicans in the Senate to pass the House’s short-term bill, which would reopen the government, with no deal on health care. On Wednesday, Democratic Sens. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, and Maine Sen. Angus King, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, voted for the seven-week funding bill passed by the House. Although it wasn’t enough to reach the 60-vote threshold needed to advance, it was an increase from Tuesday’s vote, for which Fetterman was the only supporter. If the trend holds, five additional Democrats need to support the measure to secure passage. (Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky has twice voted against the stopgap bill and likely would again.) Republicans have been ramping up the pressure on Democrats, who could begin to feel the heat and ultimately vote for the GOP’s “clean” funding bill. Sen. Jon Ossoff, a Georgia Democrat, is one of the most vulnerable senators and up for reelection in 2026. → The two parties could make a handshake deal on handling the Affordable Care Act’s premium subsidies. Some Democrats want to force a longer-term extension of Obamacare subsidies into the stopgap measure because of skepticism around Republican promises that Congress will tackle the issue later on. But others have hinted that gaining specifics about how the discussions would play out could break the logjam over government funding. Sen. Chris Coons (D-Delaware), a member of the Appropriations Committee, said on Wednesday that he’s talked with a dozen Republicans on the panel about negotiating an extension of the subsidies with some of the reforms that Republicans want. “They’re insisting, as of now, that we vote to open the government and then we’ll start negotiating. I’m encouraging them to be serious and concrete about who will negotiate, how, over what and with what deadline,” he said. Retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Michigan) has said he would be willing to vote for a stopgap bill if Republicans could give a specific framework around extending the premium subsidies. → There could be a deal between Republicans and Democrats on a Senate package that also includes a limited extension of the Affordable Care Act subsidies. At this point, this seems unlikely because of how entrenched both sides are. Although there are informal bipartisan talks happening among senators, they aren’t involving leadership. While some Republicans want to extend the subsidies — with changes, including a tightening of eligibility for them — the caucus is largely opposed. Although Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) told reporters on Tuesday that he isn’t open to talking with Democrats about legislation that contains the insurance provisions (“I don’t have anything to negotiate.”) — he opened the door to the possibility that the Senate might. “The House is coming back next week hoping that [the Senate] will be sending us something to work on,” he said. What’s next: There could be a meeting between Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) and Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-New York) on Friday, Punchbowl reported on Thursday morning. | 
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