Principals

1. Senate set to bolt
2. Dems’ shutdown tactics
3. Trump’s war on cartels
4. No BLS report for Sept
5. Israel weapons poll
6. Data center jobs boom
7. A US-China deal?

PDB: Trump in talks to appear on CBS’ 60 minutes

Czech Republic holds parliamentary elections … Japan awaits new prime minister … S&P 500 futures ⬆️ 0.3%

Shutdown could go into next week

Day 3 of the government shutdown could very easily morph into Day 6. Democrats are likely to once again reject the House’s seven-week stopgap bill, and the Senate is set to skip town for the weekend. Maybe Senate Majority Leader John Thune will meet with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, though. Thune said he’s open if Schumer “wants to actually come forward and talk about how to end this thing.” It’s pretty clear that Republicans aren’t ready to throw Democrats a bone anytime soon. Just ask Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., who is talking to Democrats about extending the expiring health care subsidies. “If we don’t pass a short-term CR there is no way of getting anything done to do the things they want to,” Rounds said. As far as negotiations go, “we’re not going to do anything until we get government open,” he added.

— Burgess Everett

Why Dems picked this shutdown fight

Democrats definitely hate shutdowns. They also hate being ignored by the majority. That’s why the minority party is blocking the kind of funding bill they usually support, in order to draw attention to their goal of reviving expiring health care subsidies despite the shutdown pain. “No one wants it, especially someone like me who’s used to getting stuff done,” Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo., told Semafor’s Burgess Everett. “It’s my choice of last resort.” The tactics amount to a bet that voters won’t remember the shutdown that much, but will remember their stance — and the contrast with Republicans — on health care. “People hate shutdowns. And I hate shutdowns. So why are we doing it? It’s because, essentially, the whole Obamacare health care success we have is being unraveled.” said Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt.

Trump says US is at war with drug cartels

The US is at war with drug cartels, President Donald Trump told congressional committees in a notice reviewed by Semafor (and first reported by The New York Times). “Based upon the cumulative effects of these hostile acts against the citizens and interests of the United States and friendly foreign nations, the President determined that the United States is in a non-international armed conflict with these designated terrorist organizations,” the notice reads. The announcement will attract more scrutiny of the administration’s recent strikes against alleged drug boats off the coast of Venezuela. It’s also another hint that the administration may ramp up actions against alleged cartels. No specific legal justification came alongside the notice, though the memo itself asserts that Trump’s recent strikes were “in compliance with the law of armed conflict.” It came as Venezuela said Thursday it had detected five US fighter jets flying near its Caribbean coast, calling the move a “provocation.”

— Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott

Jobs data murky amid shutdown

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is not expected to release its September jobs report this morning while the government is shut down, leaving employers to parse conflicting private-sector reports instead. After ADP said that US firms lost 32,000 jobs last month, Revelio said Thursday they added 60,000. Economists had expected a gain closer to 45,000. “They are all consistent with a slowdown — but how big and worrying the slowdown is varies depending on which data source,” economist Martha Gimbel told Semafor. “That is exactly why we need trusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the top Banking Committee Democrat, is calling on officials to publish the data anyway, arguing it’s “likely ready” and they “had sufficient time to plan.” Warren warns if they don’t, they could “undermine the Fed’s ability to make informed decisions.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Dem voters want to block arms to Israel

The vast majority of Democratic voters would support candidates who would “withhold weapons from Israel,” according to new polling from the pro-Palestinian Institute for Middle East Understanding Policy Project. The poll of 1,221 Democratic voters, conducted by YouGov last month, found that 71% of them would prefer a future presidential candidate who voted against arming the Jewish state, while 55% would prefer congressional candidates who supported the “Block the Bombs Act,” co-sponsored by just a quarter of House Democrats. “Sanctions against the Israeli regime are necessary to end the genocide and apartheid in Palestine,” Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., the first Palestinian American woman to serve in Congress, told Semafor after seeing the poll, comparing that strategy to boycotts of apartheid South Africa. “World leaders must impose economic sanctions and a complete arms embargo immediately,” she said.

— David Weigel

Data centers could create 500,000 jobs

The construction of data centers to power artificial intelligence in the US could create half a million jobs in the next five years, according to a new report from former GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s tech policy organization. The ALFA Institute commissioned a study that estimates a $100 billion investment in data center construction over the next half-decade would directly and indirectly create 500,000 jobs, increase GDP by $140 billion, and increase tax revenue by $800 million. Most of the jobs would be in manufacturing, but they would also span other industries like transportation and real estate, according to the report from the consulting firm Capital Policy Analytics. The report offers an optimistic assessment of AI’s economic impact, as growing numbers of policymakers worry about the mass layoffs that the technology could spur.

— Morgan Chalfant

View: The US may need a deal with China

The US may have no real alternative to swallowing a pragmatic deal with China, Semafor’s Andy Browne argues in a new column. That’s because China is catching up — fast — to US technology and innovations, he writes. “To apply military jargon to economic competition: Washington is losing its ‘escalation dominance,’ meaning it can’t easily bully Beijing any more. China doesn’t just have the ability to soak up punishment from the US in the form of tariffs and sanctions — the culmination of decades of Chinese industrial policy aimed at self-reliance in core technologies. It also has the strength to strike back: Choking off the supply of rare earth magnets used in everything from cars to missiles soon brought Trump back to the negotiating table with China after his ‘Liberation Day’ tariff blitz,” Andy writes.

Uncommon bonds: Trying diplomacy with Venezuela

The Trump administration’s escalating pressure campaign on Venezuela has some in both parties calling for more communication with Nicolás Maduro’s regime, despite broken diplomatic relations and Maduro’s authoritarian leadership. Semafor reported last week that Ric Grenell, Trump’s special missions envoy, had ruffled some feathers in the administration by openly arguing in favor of diplomacy with Maduro. But Grenell is winning over some unexpected defenders. “He is definitely not a fan of me,” Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., posted on X. “But I hope he succeeds here.” Tommy Vietor, a onetime Obama spokesman-turned-Pod Save America host, likewise sees maintaining a direct line to Maduro as “the obvious thing to do” to prevent a conflict from spiraling out of control.

Blackbird Spyplane, a style and culture newsletter, launched in 2020 as one of the early adopters and success stories on Substack. This week, Ben and Max bring on co-author and longtime magazine journalist, Jonah Weiner, to talk about how the newsletter has evolved, how it changed his marriage, and why he’s “grossed out” by affiliate links. They also talk about if he wants to expand the business further, and why Obama epitomizes “the state of the art of dad pants.”

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he would refuse to bow to Democrats’ reque