Sam Drysdale

State House News Service

A new statewide poll of likely Massachusetts voters shows Congressman Seth Moulton could claim an early advantage over U.S. Senator Ed Markey in a hypothetical 2026 U.S. Senate Democratic primary, while a solid majority of voters voiced support for cutting the state income tax rate to 4 percent.

The poll, conducted September 24–25 by Advantage Inc. for the Fiscal Alliance Foundation, surveyed 750 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

In a hypothetical U.S. Senate matchup that the Salem Congressman says he has not made a decision about, Moulton leads Markey 43 percent to 21 percent among all voters, with 36 percent undecided. Among Democratic voters who would be a big part of the primary electorate, Moulton leads 38 percent to Markey’s 30 percent.

Nearly two-thirds of all respondents — 63 percent — said the 79-year-old incumbent should not seek re-election in 2026. Advantage Inc. said the organization polled general-election-likely voters, not primary voters, about the possible U.S. Senate matchup.

On fiscal policy, 62 percent of voters said they support cutting the state income tax rate from 5 percent to 4 percent, with just 24 percent opposed. Support for the cut crossed party lines, according to the poll’s sponsors. The measure is among those proposed for possible inclusion on the 2026 ballot.

Governor Maura Healey led against Republican challengers statewide, but trailed among independent voters. Asked which candidate respondents would support if the election were held today, Healey got the support of 45 percent of respondents when matched against former Housing and Economic Development Secretary Mike Kennealy (34 percent) and the support of 46 percent of respondents against former MBTA administrator Brian Shortsleeve (31 percent).

Among independent voters, Kennealy led Healey 43 percent to 33 percent, and Shortsleeve led her 40 percent to 35 percent.

The poll did not test Kennealy and Shortsleeve against one another.

Fiscal Alliance Foundation Sept 2025 Poll Results - FINAL.pdf

"If I was working for Healey, I'd be a little concerned about those numbers, especially considering that they're trailing her job approval ratings," said Jim Eltringham of Advantage Inc. at a press conference on Wednesday, October 1. He later added, "There is a sense of a feeling that there might be something better out there."

Among statewide voters, 58 percent said they approved of the job Healey is doing (30 percent strongly approve, and 28 percent somewhat approve.)

"She's been there for, you know, coming on four years. But really, if you think of the AG background, that's a 12-year incumbent statewide, and when you're thrown against one of the Republicans .... and you're under 50 percent, I think what Jim just said is pretty true," said Fiscal Alliance spokesman Paul Craney.

A reporter pressed Craney on the governor's 58 percent job approval rate.

"Yes, there may be this feeling that, 'O.K., Healey is doing a good job. Her numbers are very high with Democrats, 80 percent job approval ratings ...' With independents, she's actually pretty good, 50 percent there. But what we see is, as Paul said, that this idea that 'O.K., the job performance is fine. Maybe there's, again, something that might be better out there,' " Eltringham said.

Healey's campaign pointed State House News Service to the Massachusetts Democratic Party when asked for a response to the poll.

Massachusetts Democratic Party chairman Steve Kerrigan said the results should be taken with skepticism given the poll’s sponsor.

"This is a partisan organization and a deeply partisan poll, and even with that MassFiscal has Maura Healey winning by a significant margin. That has to hurt the anonymous Republican donors who fund them," Kerrigan said.

In a press release, Kennealy said: "This poll proves what we already know – Maura Healey is beatable. I am the only Republican candidate with the experience, energy, policies, and resources to win in 2026."

The Kennealy camp's statement added that his opponent in the Republican primary is "unelectable."

"[Shortsleeve] trails Healey by 15 points – a nearly unprecedented gap when compared to the 2014 cycle, in which only 4 out of 60 polls ever showed Charlie Baker behind by that much," said Brian Wynne, senior advisor and pollster for the Kennealy campaign.

A spokesman for Shortsleeve said the poll showed the race is far from over and highlighted shifting voter concerns around affordability and leadership.

"The poll proves that Healey is deeply vulnerable and wrong on the issues that matter most to Massachusetts voters," said Shortsleeve spokesman Holly Robichaud. "As a Marine, successful businessman, and prove[n] reformer, Brian Shortsleeve is the best Republican candidate to hold Healey to account for her failed record that has made Massachusetts the least affordable state in the nation."

The survey also gauged public opinion on several hot-button policy issues, including rent control and energy policy. A majority (53 percent) opposed rent control outright, and opposition rose to 65 percent when respondents were told it could lead to higher property taxes for homeowners.

When asked about the state’s net zero 2050 mandate, 54 percent said they opposed the climate policy when it was described as increasing energy costs and reducing consumer choice. Roughly one-third supported the policy as described.

On energy supply, 62 percent of voters said they support building new natural gas pipelines in New England. Support for nuclear energy was also notable, with 51 percent in favor of building new nuclear plants.

Eltringham said the findings suggest affordability is emerging as a unifying concern among voters across the political spectrum.

"We do see a pretty good pattern of people saying that they're concerned about affordability, that they're concerned about their energy bills, and they want to see solutions to that, and they're looking for places where those solutions can come," he said.

The poll also included questions on taxpayer rebates, public records access, nicotine restrictions, and other policy issues.