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Brussels is bracing for the results of an election in the heart of Europe this weekend that has the potential to shift the balance of the bloc. On the ballot in the Czech Republic is the potential re-election of Andrej Babis, a billionaire populist who held the premiership for four years until 2021. 

It will be yet another test for a nation’s traditional parties, which have governed in Prague under Prime Minister Petr Fiala on an agenda of austerity and bolstering security. Babis, who made a fortune from agriculture and fertilizer conglomerates, founded his ANO party in 2011 as a force aimed at tearing down corruption. 

But by the time he became prime minister, he was embroiled in a controversy involving allegations of fraudulently obtaining EU subsidies. He eventually faced trial, but was acquitted. A municipal tribunal was ordered to re-examine the case this year. 

Babis’s brand has been to challenge EU consensus on a range of issues. An ally of Hungarian Viktor Orban during his time in power, Babis this time has been channeling Donald Trump in his bid to return to the top job, handing out red “Strong Czechia” baseball caps to supporters at rallies. It’s hard to escape the MAGA echoes on the campaign trail, Andrea Dudik writes in this dispatch.

“This government kept talking about war, very little about you,” Babis told a few hundred cheering supporters in Rajhrad, a town near Brno, the second-largest Czech city, last month. “Only one person can solve it and that is Trump,” Babis declared, referring to efforts to end the war. 

Babis’s euroskepticism has its limits. He’s ruled out holding a referendum on EU membership, characterizing the Brexit experience as an economic disaster. But the 71-year-old will hold the line — like the current government — on keeping the Czech Republic out of the euro.

On Ukraine, the billionaire has vowed to curtail military aid, a position that would be a dramatic departure for a country that’s been a key supplier of weaponry and aid to Kyiv since the start of Russia’s war. 

Andrej Babis in Prague, Sept. 30, 2025.  Photographer: Milan Jaros/Bloomberg

But his real focus during the campaign has been the cost-of-living crisis, which has pinched Czech households as it has across the region. Babis, whose net worth is estimated at $4.2 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, has held a consistent lead in the polls over Fiala. The election, held today and tomorrow, will be his to lose.  

Results are expected through the evening on Saturday. It’ll be a busy weekend for EU watchers. France’s Emmanuel Macron is expected to name a new government, more than three weeks after Sebastian Lecornu was named prime minister. 

The Latest

• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Friday implored Germans to either embrace uncomfortable reforms or watch their economy fade.
• ECB Governing Council Member Francois Villeroy de Galhau called for policymakers to strengthen the international role of the euro, including by increasing the issuance of safe assets.
• The EU’s progress toward a multitrillion euro savings and investment union is being hampered by member states defending their own national interests, the bloc’s financial services chief Maria Luis Albuquerque told us.
• Greenland is seeking closer ties with the EU after receiving more financial support from the bloc, a rebuke to US President Donald Trump’s ambition to woo the Arctic territory.
• The EU’s bid to unlock funding for Ukraine from frozen Russian central bank assets faced resistance as Belgium raised legal questions about the plan to tap financing from up to €185 billion held on its territory, with Prime Minister Bart De Wever calling it a ‘’big gamble.’’
• About 65% of the Swiss fear the consequences if UBS Group, the country’s biggest lender, were to relocate its headquarters to another country, according to a new poll from Tamedia. 

Seen and Heard on Bloomberg

Italy's budget will please the EU, and investors and markets analysts have been telling Bloomberg Radio's Stephen Carroll that it's a pleasant surprise for them too - and an example for others to follow. Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, said "we do think this is an isolated case for Italy. If you're looking across broader Europe, we have greater fiscal fears," while Pictet's Lauréline Renaud-Chatelain described Meloni's path as "a template that maybe we'll need to have in the rest of Europe, and in particular in France."

Chart of the Day

Debt investors have been so badly bruised by a recent string of fractious restructurings in Europe that they’ve started actively avoiding the continent’s riskiest credits.  In a year that’s been defined by almost insatiable demand for corporate bonds, European debt rated triple C — one of the lowest ratings categories that usually offers big rewards to compensate for investment risk — has returned next to nothing. That compares with more than 4% for other ratings groups, Bloomberg index data shows.

Coming up

• ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel speaks at symposium 'Europe in the World - Challenges and Opportunities' in Amsterdam this afternoon
• Czech parliamentary elections today and tomorrow
• French government ministers announcement over the weekend

Final Thought

Kullabergs Winery. Photographer: Axel Wiktor

More than 1,000 miles away from traditional wine districts in Provence or Tuscany, business is booming in the region of Kullabergs, southwest Sweden. As vineyards have recently won the right to sell directly to consumers, Kullabergs CEO Victor Dahl says sales are up about 15% to 20% from last summer. The Swedish industry is growing despite the challenges besetting winemakers all over the world—declining rates of consumption and the changing climate.  Indeed, as climate change affects conventional areas, Sweden is the latest outpost to offer what’s called “cool climate wines,” joining the ranks of Oregon, Germany and New Zealand. 

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