| Normally Federal Reserve reporter Enda Curran would join the newsletter today to tell us about the state of employment in the US. But today isn’t normal because of the government shutdown. Plus: A new Everybody’s Business podcast, why we’re in a sauce boom, the business school everyone wants and Indian factories’ fears. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up. By now, on the first Friday of the month, economists would’ve spent hours rifling through their favorite monthly data release, nonfarm payrolls, to get a sense of how much hiring and firing is underway in the broader economy. Instead, the US government shutdown has left those same economists twiddling their cursors. Employment data for September that was due for release at 8:30 a.m. Washington time has been delayed until lawmakers vote to reopen the government. The data void comes at a critical juncture. Recent readings on the labor market have suggested much less hiring than economists had expected. Companies don’t appear to be engaging in mass layoffs, but they’re not rushing out the door to recruit staff either. The critical question is just how weak conditions have become, in which sectors and why. It’s one of the reasons the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates in September for the first time this year and signaled more cuts may be on the way.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Photographer: Sophie Park/Bloomberg Although the Fed seems likely to cut again when the board meets this month, the absence of employment data removes a critical piece of the economic jigsaw puzzle the governors need to form their judgment. “The Fed might not have a full timely picture of the latest economic trends on time for its October meeting,” says Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price. “The significance of this cannot be understated.” To be sure, there are private-sector gauges that capture real-time movement in employment. Policymakers and Wall Street economists watch those too. And those gauges are all pointing to weakness. The ADP Research data on private-sector employment this week showed payrolls at US companies dropped by 32,000 in September. ADP also revised its August payrolls report to reflect a decline of 3,000, instead of the 54,000 addition first reported. Data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed employers announced fewer job cuts but also pulled back their hiring plans to the weakest for any September since 2011. Indicators such as those add to the sense that employment is softening. But for an official read on just how much of a softening is underway, we’ll need to wait until the government reopens. When will that be? Hard to say. Senate leaders are showing no signs of an immediate off-ramp. Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research, wrote of the shutdown in an email this week: “It’s coming at a fragile time, and it could go a while,” he said. On the Podcast On this week’s episode of Everybody’s Business, Justin Wolfers, the University of Michigan economist and author, explains how this shutdown may play out differently. Hosts Stacey Vanek Smith and Max Chafkin are also joined by Bloomberg News reporter Zeke Faux to talk about his story on crypto entrepreneur Justin Sun. Listen and subscribe on Apple, Spotify, iHeart and the Bloomberg Terminal. | 
