Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern both have set Nov. 14 for shareholder votes on their $85 billion megamerger, which would create the first U.S. railroad that runs coast-to-coast.

Why it matters: This is a precursor to broader industry consolidation.

State of play: Once the deal is approved by shareholders, the companies can complete their application to the Surface Transportation Board.

• That's where a real lobbying fight could take place, but the White House has signaled that it wants this deal to go through. And, in case you haven't been paying attention, this White House gets what it wants from "independent" federal agencies.

Zoom in: Assuming this deal goes through, expect a lot of focus on rival railroad CSX — which recently replaced its CEO with more of a dealmaker.

• The most logical buyer is Berkshire Hathaway's BNSF.
• So far it's seemed disinterested, but many believe that Warren Buffett and successor Greg Abel are just biding their time until the STB blesses Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern. Particularly if the regulators insist on any divestitures that could better inform a CSX takeover offer.
• Axios Pro's Colin Campbell tells me that Canadian railroads also could weigh bids for CSX, but adds that such efforts might crash into Trump's "America First" agenda.

Look ahead: There also could be a series of downstream deals in the supply chain space, such as in trucking and logistics.

The bottom line: Union Pacific + Norfolk Southern is going to happen. The real intrigue is what happens next.

Unilever (NYSE: UL) will delay the planned spinoff of its ice cream unit, including the Ben & Jerry's and Breyer's brands, because of the U.S. government shutdown.

Why it's the BFD: It's a reminder that the D.C. dysfunction is impacting capital markets — even if the S&P 500 keeps climbing.

Zoom in: Unilever had planned to complete the demerger by Nov. 10, with "Magnum Ice Cream" to have a primary listing in Amsterdam and secondary listings in London and New York.

• But the British behemoth can't get its U.S. registration statement declared effective by the SEC, which is operating with a skeleton staff.
• The company, whose shareholders this morning overwhelmingly approved a related share consolidation plan, says that it remains confident of completing the demerger in calendar 2025, but declined to share a specific timetable.

The bottom line: "Magnum Ice Cream has been optimizing its supply chain and building a sales team globally in preparation for the demerger. Sales have started to show improvement recently, including in the US, which is the biggest market for the ice cream brands." — Bloomberg

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