Hello Morning Bid readers!
Expectations of a thaw in U.S.-China relations gave Asian equities a boost on Friday, after the White House said on Thursday that President Donald Trump would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week during the U.S. leader's Asia trip.
Negotiations with another large U.S. trading partner, Canada, took a somewhat strange turn on Thursday, with Trump writing on Truth Social that trade talks between the North American nations were “TERMINATED,” because of what he deemed to be a “fraudulent” ad showing former President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs.
In other trade news this week, the U.S. and Australia signed a deal on Monday that will see up to $8.5 billion invested in projects to develop and refine metals vital to industries including defence, advanced manufacturing and the energy transition. ROI Asia Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell argues that this deal is far from a game-changer, but it is a decent first step as the U.S. and its allies seek to reduce their reliance on China.
On the domestic front, investors, starved of data during the government shutdown, will finally get some official economic information today: CPI inflation for September. The consensus expectation is that it will remain steady at 3.1% year-over-year.
But, as ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan writes, markets are likely to meet the announcement with a shrug, as almost no one seems to care about inflation anymore.
What matters instead is the job market, or at least that’s the steer Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell gave investors at the September FOMC meeting. ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever argues that the drop in Treasury yields this month – the 10-Year yield fell below 4% earlier this week – shows that investors are hearing Powell loud and clear.
Third quarter earnings season continued, with strong reports from Intel and many other firms, alongside disappointing results from Netflix and Tesla. Jamie McGeever suggests that maybe, just maybe, we could be seeing signs that the equity rally is about to broaden.
Over in energy markets, geopolitics were once again center stage this week, as President Trump slapped sanctions on two Russian oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil on Wednesday, in an effort to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire deal in Ukraine. ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso argues that the effectiveness of these measures will hinge on Trump's willingness to enforce secondary sanctions and risk an energy price spike.
The announcement sent Brent crude prices up over 5% on Thursday, but this jump may be short-lived, as the global oil market is widely believed to be oversupplied. Ron Bousso notes that any selloff should be limited, however, by the uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ production.
Staying on fossil fuels, ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire pointed out that natural gas consumption by U.S. LNG firms looks set to overtake gas use by U.S. households for the first time in 2025, stoking tensions between the export-oriented LNG sector and domestic gas consumers.
Over in metals, ROI Columnist Andy Home gives his key takeaways from the recent London Metal Exchange week. Spoiler alert, everyone loves Doctor Copper.
And, finally, the most famous metal of all, gold, took a tumble on Tuesday, with prices dipping the most in five years. Of course, gold fell from a record-high above $4,300 and is still up more than 50% this year, so no one needs to pity the poor gold trader.
As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team’s recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch to stay informed and ready for the week ahead.
I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at anna.szymanski@thomsonreuters.com.
