Despite the government shutdown (at 24 days and counting) the Bureau of Labor Statistics released data today about consumer prices and inflation. Federal Reserve reporter Enda Curran writes about what the numbers tell us about the state of the economy. Plus: Trump’s deportation machinery brings money and anger to an Alaskan community, and China makes a push into gourmet groceries. And a new episode of the Everybody’s Business podcast.

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There was good news on the inflation front on Friday, with September data showing that prices rose by the slowest pace in three months, clearing the way for Federal Reserve officials to cut interest rates at their meeting next week.

The core consumer price index, which leaves out the volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.2% from the prior month and 3% from the year earlier, a smidgeon below what economists had anticipated. The data reflected a slower than expected increase in goods prices and cheaper used cars. Shelter costs were also tame, suggesting rents are cooling.

White House officials were quick to say the report demonstrated that all the hand-wringing about Trump’s tariffs stoking inflation is overdone. But the numbers did show some impact from the higher import taxes. For instance, prices for household furnishings and recreational gear rose, and those for apparel climbed at the fastest rate in a year.

It was also a mixed picture for day-to-day items. Prices for cereals and nonalcoholic beverages picked up and gasoline costs jumped, though, mercifully, the cost of car insurance fell.

A gas station in Englewood, Ohio. Photographer: Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg

The data release locks in expectations on Wall Street that Fed policymakers will lower borrowing costs when they meet on Oct. 28-29 and also supports bets for another reduction in December. (The rate-setting committee doesn’t meet in November.) However, warnings from the White House that inflation data for this month may not be collected or released because of the government shutdown mean that the Fed (and investors) may be navigating blind into that final meeting on the 2025 policy calendar.

There’s another reason for caution, too. Inflation is still well above the Fed’s 2% target at a time when the artificial-intelligence-led boom is boosting stock valuations for tech companies and business investment, factors that should underpin economic growth in the months ahead.

“This inflation print is a sigh of relief for the Fed,” says Olu Sonola, head of US Economic Research at Fitch Ratings. “As odd as it may seem, the Fed will be happy with inflation staying around 3% for the next couple of months.”

In Brief

• President Trump said he would immediately halt all trade negotiations with Canada, citing a Canadian advertisement against his signature tariffs plan featuring the voice of President Ronald Reagan.
• JPMorgan Chase plans to allow institutional clients to use their holdings of Bitcoin and Ether as collateral for loans by the end of the year.
• PopUp is Wall Street’s bet a national chain can actually make good bagels.

On the Podcast

How is the US economy doing? This shouldn’t be a difficult question to answer. And yet, for the past few years, amid “vibecessions,” tariffs, “quiet quitting,” “quiet firing,” the rise of artificial intelligence, record-breaking equities, record-breaking gold prices, record-breaking crypto and a semi-frozen job market, nobody, it would seem, knows anything.

This week on Everybody’s Business from Bloomberg Businessweek, hosts Stacey Vanek Smith and Max Chafkin talk with Kyla Scanlon, economic commentator and author of In This Economy?, to help cut through the fog with three indicators she’s watching right now.

Listen and subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, iHeart and the Bloomberg Terminal.

Illustration: Bianca Bagnarelli for Bloomberg Businessweek.

Roswell Schaeffer Sr. has had many lives in Kotzebue, Alaska, a coastal town of about 3,000 just north of the Arctic Circle. He’s been a commercial fisherman, a subsistence hunter and holder of just about every local political position—mayor, councilman, judge. Eventually, he got the biggest gig in town: He took over as president and chief executive officer of Nana Regional Corp., an Alaska Native company of which he’s one of more than 15,000 Iñupiaq shareholders. From 1990 to 1992, he ran one of the largest companies based in a vast 38,000-square-mile region of the remote Arctic, one with outsize cultural, historic and economic importance to the Iñupiat people.

Nana’s stated mission is “to improve the quality of life for our people by maximizing economic growth” while honoring core Iñupiat principles, which include treating people with “dignity and respect.” When Schaeffer was president, Nana did that mostly by investing in Alaskan mining and hospitality businesses that hired shareholders. He says he took pride in the work.

That was a very different Nana. Through several presidential administrations, the company has turned itself into a large government contractor, with its biggest revenue generator run out of an office park in a suburb of Washington, DC. Nana’s largest contracts, worth hundreds of millions of dollars a year, are with the Department of Defense. But over the past decade, one of its fastest-growing lines of government business is with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Schaeffer now says Nana is abandoning crucial values by taking an increasingly large role in President Donald Trump’s mass deportation drive.

Polly Mosendz, Michael Smith and Rachel Adams-Heard write about the tension shareholders see between the work and Iñupiat values: Distant ICE Detention Centers Bring Money—and Anger—to an Alaska Native Community

Election Day

Caviar, Made in China

Handling fish at a sturgeon farm. Photographer: Raul Ariano for Bloomberg Businessweek

On the 19th floor of a glass tower overlooking Singapore’s Marina Bay, dozens of food writers and social media influencers are gathered at Vue, a restaurant known for charcuterie, ceviche and steaks served with exhilarating skyline vistas. The event is intended to introduce a new caviar lineup, but it doesn’t come from places around the Caspian Sea or any other traditional source of prestigious sturgeon roe. Instead the cans of Kaluga Queen piled on the tables proudly say “Made in China.” The chef’s team calls the salty black fish eggs “an icon of refinement that offers a fragrant aroma and a burst of rich, oceanic flavor with every bite.”

China is the world’s top exporter of caviar from sturgeon, accounting for 44% of global sales in 2024 (far ahead of No. 2 Italy, with 10%), and it’s increasingly finding its way into high-end restaurants worldwide. The growth is the fruit of government policies aimed at shifting China’s reputation from the world’s factory to a purveyor of pricey specialty goods. The country has growing production of ingredients not traditionally associated with Chinese cuisine, including foie gras, truffles and wagyu-style beef. “There has been a concerted effort by Beijing to support Chinese farmers in identifying products with higher value that might find a high-end market,” says Even Pay, an agriculture analyst at policy consultant Trivium China.

Karoline Kan writes about the growing trade: Chinese Caviar and Foie Gras Shake Up Global Gourmet Dining

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