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| The $1.7 trillion mega-deal boom driving M&A's rebound |
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By Madeline Shi, Senior Private Equity Reporter
Global M&A activity rebounded in 2025, primarily driven by the return of large-scale deals.
Corporations and PE firms completed 435 mega-deals worldwide this year through the end of September, defined as those valued at $1 billion or more, according to our Q3 2025 Global M&A Report, sponsored by Liberty GTS and RSM.
These deals totaled $1.7 trillion, the highest amount for the first three quarters since 2021, though still below the $2.4 trillion total recorded that year.
North America led the recovery, with $1.2 trillion in mega-deals during the first nine months. |
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The Trump administration's deregulatory policies sparked a flurry of large-scale mergers and PE acquisitions.
The previously widely held belief that "big deals are bad" is starting to fade, said Garrett Charon, a partner at law firm Ropes & Gray. This shift is reflected in the year's largest deal—rail operator Union Pacific's proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern.
In addition, the demand for rapid advancements in AI fostered the rise of large deals. Industry heavyweights are racing to build data centers and supply the rapidly escalating energy demand, both byproducts of the AI boom.
Last but not least, the once-wide valuation gap between sellers and buyers, which persisted from 2022 through much of 2024, has narrowed, encouraging more sellers to return to the market.
"The overall valuation environment is not as punitive as it was in 2022 and 2023," said Jay Hofmann, the head of North America M&A at JP Morgan.
While larger deals have picked up, the market for smaller deals has contracted this year. Through Q3, the number of M&A transactions under $100 million dropped by 3.4% year over year, and the overall deal value for this segment fell by nearly 25%. |
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• Astorg and Nordic Capital are selling Clario Holdings to Thermo Fisher Scientific in an $8.9 billion deal. The sale highlights a record increase in US PE exits by European sponsors, with Q4 already being the largest quarter in four years by value. Read more
• Hollyport Capital closed its ninth flagship secondaries fund on $4.5 billion, surpassing its $3 billion target. The fund ranks among Europe's largest secondaries raises this year, amid a record $77.8 billion raised across just 17 fund closes. Find out more
• HLTH USA conference: Weight loss drugs were the big topic. FDA commissioner Robert Califf called their profit margins "outrageous." Read the full recap and analysis
• Morgan Stanley has agreed to acquire EquityZen, a secondaries trading marketplace. The move comes as financial services push to make private markets more accessible to individual investors, including retail investors. Read more
• Just out: Our Q3 valuations data for public companies in the agtech industry. Get our analysts' report today |
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| Betting on the next mega-IPO |
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By James Thorne, Senior Managing Editor
The IPO market’s burgeoning recovery is restoring some long-awaited liquidity to venture investors, but it’s also highlighting a less flattering trend: the down-round IPO.
Meanwhile, in the fast-moving market for VC direct secondaries—where stakes in the most coveted startups trade hands—the hottest venture-backed companies are still commanding hefty premiums to their last primary rounds.
Consider Anthropic, which raised $13 billion at a $183 billion post-money valuation in September. Its estimated secondary market valuation has already climbed 13% higher, to $207 billion, according to secondary data provider Notice.co.
The PitchBook 100 offers insight into which startups continue to attract strong secondary demand. The list ranks the 100 most valuable VC-backed companies, pairing each with Notice.co’s latest secondary estimates.
On average, those companies still trade at a 14.1% discount despite that gap narrowing by more than half since late February, when the rankings debuted. Notably, IPO hopefuls like Canva and Discord continue to trade at sizable markdowns.
Secondary sales of startup equity have ballooned from a niche market into an estimated $61.1 billion industry, as liquidity needs—and investor appetite for names like OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic and xAI—accelerate.
Investors will soon have new ways to access private companies, from private equity exposure in 401(k)s to indexes that blend public and private companies. As those lines blur, secondary markets are offering a preview of which businesses might define tomorrow’s stock market. |
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