Last quarter, Meta’s revenue from its Reality Labs segment, which includes its AI smart glasses, was higher than analysts predicted and its losses were lower. Those losses relative to revenue were still massive — nearly 10x what it was bringing in — with the company posting an operating loss of $4.4 billion on revenue of $470 million.
 

Hey Snackers,

In the 2017 HBO documentary “Becoming Warren Buffett,” the Berkshire Hathaway chair, a famous McDonald’s enthusiast, said he uses the stock market to decide his breakfast: “When I’m not feeling quite so prosperous, I might go with the $2.61, which is two sausage patties…” Obviously, not only could Buffett afford the most expensive item on the McDonald’s menu, but his company Berkshire Hathaway has a big enough cash pile to buy McDonald’s outright. We made a list of other companies that Berkshire Hathaway’s $382 billion could buy.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 had a positive start to what is historically the best month of the year for stocks, almost exclusively powered by the AI trade as Amazon announced a $38 billion cloud computing deal with OpenAI, while the Russell 2000 fell. Consumer discretionary (which includes Amazon) and tech were the best-performing sector ETFs.

 
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Meta still wants to have its iPhone moment

Last quarter, Meta’s revenue from its Reality Labs segment, which includes its AI smart glasses, was higher than analysts predicted and its losses were lower. Those losses relative to revenue were still massive — nearly 10x what it was bringing in — with the company posting an operating loss of $4.4 billion on revenue of $470 million.

Meta has a couple of things that it’s great at and plenty of other things that it’s merely good at. Gadgets, at least so far, ain’t one of them. So, why hasn’t the company cut bait and moved on?

  • Since the company started reporting those losses in late 2020, it’s totaled more than $73 billion.
  • For Meta, the expense is worth it, as CEO Mark Zuckerberg believes the segment plays a key role in the company’s future. To put it simply, Meta doesn’t want to miss its iPhone moment again.
  • “Certainly, the investment here is not just to build just the device. It’s also to build these services on top,” Zuckerberg replied to a question during Meta’s earnings call last week. “Right now, a lot of people get the devices for a range of things that don’t even include the AI even though they like the AI. But I think over time, the AI is going to become the main thing that people are using them for and I think that that’s going to end up having a big business opportunity by itself.”

In other words, Meta isn’t just betting on selling hardware. It’s betting that its AI services built on top of those devices will generate a new stream of revenue — much like Apple’s ecosystem of services layered on the iPhone.

THE TAKEAWAY

Here, Meta — which (as Facebook) once tried and failed to build its own smartphone — is hoping history will rhyme rather than repeat. The difference this time is that Meta wants to own both the devices and the software that runs on them.

Like Apple, which has turned its Services segment into a reliable profit engine even as hardware sales have wobbled, Meta wants to ride that same train: hardware as a gateway, software as the payoff.

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Options markets signal “optimism peaks” for Magnificent 7 stocks

Of all the many ways to measure investor sentiment — surveys, futures positioning, and more — one of our favorites might be through the answer to this question: how much are traders willing to pay for options that offer upside in stocks compared to those that protect against downside?

  • Cboe’s head of derivatives market intelligence, Mandy Xu, noted that about three weeks ago, skew in the S&P 500 spiked amid renewed market jitters over the fraying of America’s trade relationship with China. 
  • Skew, in this case, tracks the ratio between the implied volatility of puts versus calls, a proxy for the relative demand for bearish versus bullish options. Now that’s completely flipped on its head, for the index in general and for its largest components in particular.
  • “The number of stocks in the S&P top 100 trading with inverted call skew (a sign of extremely bullish sentiment where the OTM call trades at a higher volatility than the ATM call) has surged to a high of ~20% (vs. historical average of just 3%),” she wrote.

So, what does that mean for the bull market?

THE TAKEAWAY

Zooming in on a similar measure, Goldman Sachs analyst Cullen Morgan showed that sentiment is particularly ebullient for the so-called Magnificent 7. 

“Coming into earnings this week, put-call skew in the Mag7 complex inverted for the first time since December of last year (i.e. implied volatility of calls traded over puts),” he wrote on Friday. “This phenomenon has only happened a handful of times. The move implies investors are overwhelmingly positioned for continued upside. Historically, such low skew readings have tended to coincide with short-term consolidation or reversals as optimism peaks.”

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Texas wants a piece of Wall Street

The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) — a Dallas-based challenger pitching itself as a “pro-business” alternative to Wall Street — announced an investment from JPMorgan last week, bringing its total funding above $250 million ahead of its planned 2026 launch. More than 70 investors have joined so far, and TXSE’s debut marks the first SEC-approved exchange in decades that will eventually be able to both list as well as trade public companies’ shares.

Duopoly challenge
 

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