| November: the end of the bull market? |
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Financial markets were particularly volatile this week, still torn between the high valuations of US tech giants, despite Nvidia's better-than-expected results. Unemployment statistics, published late due to the government shutdown, confirmed the strength of the US labour market, further delaying the prospect of a Fed rate cut in September. Volatility has increased significantly, and this nervousness is likely to continue in the coming sessions. |
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| This week's gainers and losers |
Up:
Exact Sciences +50.53%: the company, which specializes in cancer screening and diagnostic testing, has been acquired by Abbott for $21 billion. The deal will enable the major laboratory to accelerate its entry into a fast-growing segment that is supported by new technologies.
Jazz Pharma +25.42%: The lab, with a market capitalisation of nearly $20 billion, has announced very positive results in advanced trials for HER2-positive gastro-oesophageal cancer. An application for marketing authorization is planned for 2026.
Games Workshop +16.73%: the British company specializing in games and figurines continues its exceptional performance following strong half-year results. International sales are performing well and the entire range is contributing to profits. The share price has increased 40-fold in 10 years.
Alphabet +8.41%: Google and YouTube's parent company is backed by Berkshire Hathaway, which has acquired a $4.3 billion stake. The internet giant is enjoying impressive momentum, with its share price almost doubling since April's low.
Down:
SanDisk -21.2%: The memory chip maker plunged after strong earnings and guidance ironically triggered worries about elevated fab and underutilization costs, uncertain margin recovery, and a broader tech-sector selloff.
Crypto-related stocks: Concerns about technology stocks are having a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. The weakness of the latter is weighing particularly heavily on companies such as Coinbase and Robinhood.
Ocado -17.6%: Shares in the British online supermarket plunged on Tuesday. Its American partner Kroger announced the closure of three automated warehouses in January. This decision calls into question Ocado's model and the size of the addressable market.
Nvidia -5.94%: The eagerly awaited results from the AI leader were not enough to reassure investors, as fears of an AI bubble burst continue to grow. |
| Commodities |
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Energy: Oil prices continue to fall, remaining under pressure due to ongoing efforts by the United States to negotiate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The peace plan proposed by the United States greatly favors Russia, which is not neutral for oil prices. This direction of the talks has allayed some fears about new sanctions or the strict enforcement of existing sanctions against Russia. In addition, the strength of the US dollar, supported by the prospect of a pause in the Federal Reserve's monetary easing policy, has also contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices. A stronger dollar makes oil, which is priced in dollars, more expensive for buyers using other currencies. In terms of prices, Brent is trading at around USD 62.40, compared with USD 58 for WTI.
Metals: Copper - 3-month delivery - stabilized in London at around USD 10,738. The upward momentum is struggling to regain momentum due to the strength of the US dollar and, above all, Chinese demand, which is considered fragile. It should be noted that Chile, the world's largest copper producer, has revised its price forecasts for this year and next year upwards. This revision takes into account supply disruptions and lower interest rates. Gold prices also fell this week, losing around 1% to USD 4,040. This decline came after the release of robust US employment data, which drastically reduced expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month.
Agricultural products: Wheat futures declined across the board in Chicago. The price of wheat - December 2025 delivery - fell to 537 cents per bushel. This decline is attributed to forecasts of abundant global supply. Corn also fell to 436 cents. Coffee continued its decline this week following the US President's decision to remove 40% tariffs on Brazilian coffee. |
| Macroeconomics |
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Macro: The Nvidia miracle did not happen after all. Despite the publication of impressive results and the company's attempts to reassure investors, the upturn was short-lived, leading to a decline in technology stocks. Even more surprisingly, European defense stocks have also suffered recent setbacks, penalized by the prospect of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. The market seems quick to debunk its idols, but once the dust has settled, it is likely that bargain hunting will resurface. Meanwhile, the bond market is observing these turbulences with a certain degree of calm. Even if the prospect of a further rate cut in December is receding, the US 10-year yield remains on a downward trend and is still below 4.15%.
Crypto: Bitcoin has fallen for the fourth consecutive week. The king of cryptocurrencies has slipped 27% over this period, including 11% this week, returning to a level not seen since last April. In concrete terms, BTC, which hit a record high of over USD 126,000 last month, is now flirting with USD 80,000. As a result, Bitcoin is down 9% since 1 January. The same trend can be seen in spot Bitcoin ETFs: the outstanding amount of these products has fallen from £169 billion on 6 October to £113 billion today, a drop of 33%. More broadly, the entire cryptosphere is in freefall. Total market capitalisation has melted away by USD 1 trillion in one month and is now back to around USD 2.83 trillion. Bitcoin and its peers have suffered in particular from their correlation with tech stocks: between fears about the valuations of US Big Tech companies, the US shutdown that has clouded economic visibility, and the prospect of the Fed maintaining its key interest rates next month, the cryptosphere has given way. The stress on the markets will need to ease somewhat for Bitcoin to stabilise, although after two years of gains in 2023 and 2024 (up 460% in total), it is not surprising that some are also taking profits. |
The week was marked by a sharp resurgence of volatility and therefore stress on the markets. After several months of gains (four in Europe, six in the United States), November is off to a poor start to continue the streak. With the quarterly earnings season almost over, investors will refocus on the macroeconomy and interest rates, with the Fed's policy decision on 10 December in their sights. However, statistics are still being released in dribs and drabs in the United States following the end of the shutdown. Statistical institutes have signaled the announcement of September producer prices and retail sales for 25 November, while durable goods orders will be unveiled on 26 November. Note, however, that while large companies are releasing fewer results, a few latecomers will be driving the market, notably Agilent, Alibaba, Dell, Compass, Deere and The Kroger. Thursday 27 November will be a public holiday in the US for Thanksgiving. Have a great weekend! |
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Things to read this week
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Tesla: Musk's previous compensation plan could erase years of profits
While the board recently approved a new, substantial remuneration package for its CEO Elon Musk, legal action surrounding the prior 2018 plan could pose a... Read more
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Employment: Mixed signals ahead of the Fed's decision
In September, the US economy added 119,000 jobs, well above the consensus of 51,000. The December Fed rate hold remains the central scenario.
Read more
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Investors comfortable in their bubble
Bank of America published the latest edition of its fund manager survey yesterday. The findings are somewhat paradoxical: positioning is clearly bullish, but... Read more
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More than 20 years at your side
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