Good morning. Canada’s economy might have found its sea legs; the U.S. labour market is weakening; and the cryptocurrency market has lost more than US$1-trillion in value since bitcoin’s all-time high – last month. In focus today, the stories bound to make waves this week.

Deals: BHP Group is making a second bid for mining rival Anglo American PLC in an attempt to scuttle a proposed merger with Teck Resources Ltd., two weeks before a critical shareholder vote.

Trade: Prime Minister Mark Carney and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have agreed to pursue a “comprehensive” economic partnership, restarting trade talks that have been frozen for the past two years.

Policy: Carney backed away from a key international priority of his Liberal predecessors, saying his government does not have a feminist foreign policy.

This week is brought to us by the letter ‘B’

Northern lights

Canada’s economy may have steadied after a soft spring. Economists expect the country’s main measure of growth, reported this Friday, to show a slight rise – driven by continued spending on services even as purchases of goods slowed and by public-sector spending, which picked up again in the second quarter after a small pullback earlier in the year.

The drag from the year’s earlier swings in trade and inventories also appears to have eased as tariff-related distortions faded. For September, gross domestic product is expected to rise about 0.2 per cent on the strength of manufacturing, which posted a solid month. Early readings for October point to a firmer start to the fourth quarter.

Beige Book, true colours

Federal Reserve officials are watching for signs that the U.S. economy is losing steam as they prepare for their final policy meeting of the year. The Fed’s Beige Book, which doesn’t have the most exciting name, is in fact “the most comprehensive assessment of the U.S. economy,” economist David Rosenberg recently told me. Unlike government data, it doesn’t get revised and isn’t subject to the sample errors that often distort official releases.

In Wednesday’s release, companies are expected to report slower hiring and some layoffs as demand cools, offering a key picture of inflation pressures ahead of the Fed’s Dec. 10 interest rate decision. The odds of a rate cut jumped on Friday after one official said labour-market weakness could warrant a move.

The Great British Ache Off

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves enters her second budget facing the daunting task of raising roughly £30-billion (about $55.5-billion) to close a gap in public finances and create the fiscal “headroom” she has promised – essentially the buffer the government needs so borrowing doesn’t spiral and markets stay calm. This Wednesday’s budget lands after a week of open feuding inside the Labour Party, fuelled by a sudden U-turn on income tax and frantic efforts to steady the party leadership.

After retreating from income-tax hikes, that likely means relying on a grab bag of smaller revenue moves. Bond markets want discipline, her party wants promises kept and voters want relief in an economy that has clearly slowed. Best of the British!

Make it rain, dear

Black Friday marks the opening of retailers’ favourite time of year: holiday shopping season. Seriously, it’s like Christmas to them.

This year finds U.S. consumers opening up their wallets, although at a slower pace. Market watchers expect September retail sales to rise about 0.5 per cent, helped by higher auto purchases and stronger gasoline receipts. But the “core” slice of retail sales that economists trace leaves out volatile items like gas and autos. That measure is expected to rise only slightly, suggesting softer momentum beneath the surface. Restaurants and bars likely saw lower sales, which would suggest some cooling in discretionary services near the end of the quarter.

Bitcoin’s ‘death cross’

The runaway-market success story of the past two years is sinking. Bitcoin has lost roughly a third of its value since early October’s record US$126,223, as investors become increasingly nervous about any asset that has risen that much that quickly. (See: AI-related stocks.)

The crypto market as a whole has lost more than US$1-trillion in value since bitcoin’s all-time high in October, as capital has flooded out of everything from meme coins like Dogecoin and Pepe to crypto exchange-traded funds.

With little in the way of real stuff happening, traders might latch on to technical charts to determine where a price should go next. Bitcoin, now below US$90,000, has passed a “death cross” – the point at which the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day. Loss in short-term momentum compared with a longer-term trend isn’t a great sign. Bad Doge.

With a file from Reuters