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Global geopolitical disarray

A series of meetings and announcements worldwide this week are showcasing the state of flux in global geopolitics. The US said it would not invite South Africa to next year’s G20 summit, and would instead ask Poland — not a G20 member — to join; Washington cannot formally ban Pretoria, but the latest post points to the level of discord in the group. Separately, French President Emmanuel Macron pushed Chinese leader Xi Jinping to withdraw backing for Russia’s war in Ukraine, even as he pitched for investment from Beijing, while Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to shore up ties with India, which buys a lot of oil from Moscow and faces trade pressure from Washington for doing so.

Trump hosts DRC-Rwanda peace deal

US President Donald Trump will oversee the signing of a peace deal between DR Congo and Rwanda in Washington today, an agreement he has hailed as buffeting his peacemaking credentials. Kinshasa accuses Kigali of supporting rebels in the resource-rich eastern DRC, and fighting has escalated ahead of the meeting, highlighting the difficulty of reaching — and maintaining — truces, even if overseen by the US president. Talks over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal have once again languished, while a ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand signed under Trump’s auspices has collapsed. “It’s easier to bring people to Washington and sign a document in front of the cameras,” an expert told Semafor’s Africa editor ahead of today’s talks. “Peace will be much harder.”

US diplomats’ plummeting morale

Morale among US diplomats is in freefall as the Trump administration slashes spending and upends traditional norms and practices. Overall, 98% of American foreign service officers reported lower morale since US President Donald Trump returned to office, according to a new survey, while 86% said it had become harder to do their jobs. The role of the diplomat has also been undermined, separate pieces noted in the Financial Times: The US has moved from an age of diplomacy to “the age of the envoy,” the outlet’s foreign editor wrote, prioritizing short-term dealmaking over long-term expertise. “No conflict shoddily mediated by fixers and compromised officials operating outside formal channels will produce a well-structured peace,” one expert warned.

Pentagon watchdog rules against Hegseth

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth put troops at risk by sharing military plans in a messaging app, a Pentagon watchdog ruled. Hegseth posted details of strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen into a Signal group chat that included a journalist for The Atlantic. The White House has closed ranks around Hegseth in recent days; he is also under pressure after a US strike killed two survivors clinging to the wreckage of an alleged Venezuelan drug-smuggling boat after an initial attack. Both Democrat and Republican lawmakers said that if such a follow-up attack took place, it would likely be illegal. Hegseth said he did not see survivors and that a Navy admiral ordered the second strike.

US parties gripped by infighting

Republicans and Democrats were both grappling with infighting, with each party’s Congressional leadership facing scrutiny. On the right, a Trump-allied member of the House of Representatives told The Wall Street Journal that the top-ranking Republican in the chamber was an ineffective leader who would not be elected to his post were a vote to be held today. And the Democratic leader in the Senate faces criticism from outside groups over his strategy to fight US President Donald Trump’s policies, forcing Senate Democrats to argue that any debate over his future should be put off until after next year’s midterms, Semafor’s Congressional bureau chief reported.

Fed choices dominate markets

Stocks gained on growing confidence of an imminent US rate cut, but investors and analysts voiced worry over the expected selection of a new Federal Reserve chief they fear will compromise the central bank’s independence. Traders now project a quarter-percentage-point cut next week as nearly 90% likely. But of greater concern for bond investors is President Donald Trump’s choice for the next Fed chair, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett the frontrunner. Some funds have told the US Treasury of concerns that Hassett, who is seen as close to Trump, might too easily acquiesce to the president’s demands for further rate cuts, the Financial Times reported, while The Economist characterized him as a “partisan” with a “torched… scholarly reputation.”

Copper prices soar amid supply fears

Copper prices hit a record high on concerns about tightening supply and potential US tariffs. Futures hit $11,485 a ton, up 30% so far this year. Demand is soaring — the metal is vital for chips, electric vehicles, and power grids — and the market has been hit by disruptions. Mining giant Glencore cut its 2026 production targets by about 10% on the back of problems at its mine in Chile, and there have also been setbacks at other major sites in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia. There has also been speculation that the White House could impose new import tariffs next year, and buyers are ramping up shipments to avoid potential price rises.

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Childhood deaths to rise after aid cuts

Global deaths among children under five are forecast to rise this year for the first time this millennium, largely as a result of falling foreign aid. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicted that 4.8 million children would die this year, up from 4.6 million last year. Declining humanitarian assistance is a major part of the reason why child deaths have fallen 50% since 2000. But commitments are down by 25% this year compared to last: The US has dismantled initiatives to tackle diseases such as HIV and malaria, while other countries, including Germany and the UK, have also cut spending. Growing vaccine skepticism has also hit immunization rates, leading to a rise in deadly childhood illnesses.

Baby formula gets cheaper in the UK

The UK will allow supermarkets to offer discounts on baby formula, suggesting a possible change in its decades-long emphasis on the superiority of breastfeeding. The World Health Organization proposed a ban on promoting breast milk substitutes in 1981, arguing