ISDA dailyLead
Plus, Treasury yields fall as Fed signals possible 2026 easing
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December 11, 2025
 
 
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Fed rate cut highlights internal divisions
The US Federal Reserve's recent rate cut faced significant internal resistance, with three dissenting votes and four officials quietly objecting by projecting higher rates for 2025. US President Donald Trump criticized the cut as insufficient and expressed a desire for lower rates, posing a challenge for Powell's successor. The Fed's decision reflects a split between officials concerned about a weakening labor market and those wary of cutting rates in a strong economy.
Full Story: CNBC (12/10), The Wall Street Journal (12/10), Reuters (12/11)
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Powell: Official data could overstate job creation by 60K
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has voiced concerns that official job statistics could be overstating job creation by as much as 60,000 jobs per month, potentially showing a net loss of 20,000 jobs monthly since April. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' birth-death model, which estimates jobs from new and closed businesses, has been identified as a significant issue, prompting the BLS to plan model adjustments by February.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (12/10), Fortune (tiered subscription model) (12/10)
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Industry News and Trends
 
Treasury yields fall as Fed signals possible 2026 easing
US Treasury yields declined after the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting and indicated the potential for further policy easing in 2026. The two-year note saw the most significant drop, falling eight basis points to 3.54%. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments on a potentially weaker labor market contributed to the rally in Treasurys.
Full Story: Bloomberg (12/10)
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Japan 20Y bond auction sees highest demand since 2020
Japan's latest 20-year government bond auction drew the strongest demand since 2020, with a bid-to-cover ratio climbing to 4.1 from 3.28 the previous month. Demand was attributed to attractive yields, expectations of reduced future issuance, and a supportive backdrop from falling US yields.
Full Story: Bloomberg (12/11), Nikkei Asia (12/11)
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China's trade surplus hits $1T despite US tariffs
China's trade surplus has reached a record $1 trillion, driven by $3.41 trillion in exports, despite US tariffs and trade tensions. The surplus with Southeast Asia has surged to $245 billion, and the surplus with the EU has increased by nearly $20 billion. The auto sector has contributed significantly, with a $66 billion surplus, as China becomes the world's largest auto exporter.
Full Story: Financial Times (12/11)
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Argentina sells $1B in local-law dollar bonds as test
Argentina has raised $1 billion through a local-law dollar bond sale as a test for re-entry into global credit markets. The bond, due November 2029, was priced to yield 9.26%, higher than the sub-9% expected by Argentinian Economy Minister Luis Caputo. Demand reached $1.42 billion, with a cash allocation of $910 million. The sale is crucial for meeting a $4.5 billion bond payment in January.
Full Story: Bloomberg (12/10), Buenos Aires Times (Argentina) (12/10)
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Regulatory Roundup
 
ECB eyes overhaul of AT1 bank capital
The European Central Bank has proposed redesigning additional Tier 1 instruments so they reliably absorb losses before bank failure, offering clearer terms to issuers and investors and preserving compliance with global standards. The recommendations, part of a broader push to simplify EU bank rules, also consider merging capital buffers, adjusting MREL alignment, and expanding simplified regimes for smaller lenders while rejecting a Bundesbank idea to strip AT1/T2 out of core requirements.
Full Story: Bloomberg (12/11), Financial Times (12/11), Reuters (12/11)
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ESMA Chair Ross to step down at end of term in 2026
European Securities and Markets Authority Chair Verena Ross will not seek a second term and will step down at the end of her current term, which concludes October 31, 2026. ESMA said it will begin the process of selecting a new chair.
Full Story: MLex (12/10), Markets Media (12/10), FX News Group (12/10)
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