| Dr Powell at Wall Street's bedside |
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Financial markets rallied this week, buoyed by the health of the US economy and Wednesday's 25 basis point rate cut. Wall Street took advantage of this to set new records, despite a somewhat gloomy climate caused by Oracle's results, which reignited questions about the valuation levels of artificial intelligence stocks. Although market sentiment has improved, the Federal Reserve appears to be considering only one monetary easing measure in 2026. Against this backdrop, the US inflation figures due out next Thursday are likely to capture everyone's attention and could trigger the traditional end-of-year rally. |
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| This week's gainers and losers |
Up:
Confluent +29.86%: The platform specialising in data flows was acquired by IBM for £11 billion. The IT giant intends to strengthen its software offering as data exchange volumes continue to grow.
Carvana +13.99%: The company specialising in the purchase and sale of used cars joined the S&P 500 during the week. The group is thus benefiting from new inflows linked to its inclusion in ETFs tracking the index.
Ciena +8.29%: The communications solutions manufacturer posted strong quarterly results, marked by an increase in revenue and profits. The group also took the opportunity to unveil an optimistic outlook for 2026.
Abivax +14.74%: The biotechnology company specialising in chronic intestinal diseases is the subject of speculation about a takeover bid by the American company Eli Lilly. Abivax recently presented good clinical results for its lead drug candidate, obefazimod, in ulcerative colitis. The treatment developed is a rare asset on the market.
Down:
AutoZone -9.86%: The automotive parts specialist is not accustomed to experiencing periods of weakness. Despite a favourable underlying trend, given that Americans prefer to maintain or purchase used vehicles rather than new ones, the company has seen its profitability decline slightly. However, this is mainly an accounting effect, and is certainly temporary.
Oracle -12.69%: The hyperscaler published a quarterly report that failed to allay investors' concerns about its continuing rise in expenditure.
Broadcom -7.77%: Share fell sharply despite strong quarterly earnings, as lofty AI-driven expectations, limited long-term AI revenue guidance, and investor fatigue with crowded AI trades outweighed solid results. |
| Commodities |
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Energy: Oil prices continue to fall, with Brent reaching its lowest level since the end of October, at around £61 per barrel. One of the main causes of this decline is the forecast of an oil supply surplus. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently published forecasts predicting a continued increase in oil production in the United States, reaching a record 13.61 million barrels per day in 2025. However, a slight decline to 13.53 million barrels per day is expected in 2026. At the same time, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasts an increase in global demand of around 1.3 to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2026. This demand will come mainly from non-OECD countries such as China and India. On the geopolitical front, the market is closely monitoring the ongoing negotiations on Ukraine. Similarly, the seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker by the United States had a limited impact on prices. Under normal circumstances, such an event would have led to an increase in oil prices.
Metals: Silver remains in excellent shape, breaking through the USD 60 per ounce mark and accelerating to USD 64.4. This year, silver has recorded an increase of around 120%, outperforming gold and its 65% gains. The combination of limited supply (silver mining production has fallen by around 3% this year), resilient industrial demand and investor appetite for precious metals explains this exceptional trajectory. Gold has also gained ground, driven by the weakening of the dollar and US bond yields after the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points. In London, the price of copper continues to rise, reaching near record levels. This upturn is fuelled by rumours of support measures in China, particularly for its real estate sector, which is crucial for demand for industrial metals. To date, copper has risen 32% since the beginning of the year, driven by fears of disruption and tight global supply.
Agricultural products: In its latest monthly report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) adjusted its forecasts for certain wheat and corn varieties. Global wheat stocks have been revised upwards to 274.9 million tonnes, due to increased production from several major producers. Wheat has logically lost ground in Chicago (530 cents per bushel, March 2026 expiry). The opposite is true for corn, as global stocks were revised downwards to 279.2 million tonnes due to lower production, allowing corn to rise to 446 pence (March 2026 contract). |
| Macroeconomics |
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Macro: Despite some disagreement within its committee, the US Federal Reserve delivered the expected outcome: a 25 basis point rate cut, which will certainly be followed by a pause to analyse the various macroeconomic statistics. The spectre of an imminent upward movement has been dispelled, reassuring the financial community. Even bonds eased after Jerome Powell's speech, a sign that the market does not consider the cut to be a monetary policy mistake. At least for now. We will therefore be watching the movements of the 10-year US bond over the next few days, as any fall should be interpreted positively, fueling the rise of the stock market, gold and the euro against the dollar.
Crypto: Bitcoin is slowly recovering after its November slump. BTC is up more than 2% this week and is now trading around USD 92,000. Activity on spot Bitcoin ETFs is sluggish, with ‘only’ USD 250 million in net inflows into these products, far from the billion-dollar pace seen in October. This lull coincides with tensions surrounding technology stocks, particularly those related to AI, since November. However, the news is rather positive on the regulatory front. This week, the US banking regulator, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), indicated that national banks in the United States can now act as intermediaries in cryptocurrency transactions. In concrete terms, this decision aims to bridge the gap between traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem by allowing institutions to carry out certain low-risk proprietary transactions without automatically triggering a thorough review by the supervisor. This is clearly not enough to ignite the entire market. Ether (ETH) is up 5.6% at around £3,200, Solana (SOL) is up 5% at £138, while XRP (XRP) is stagnating at around £2.03. |
Slowly but surely, the indices have returned to their highs. The reassuring presence of the Fed has offset doubts about the profitability of investments in artificial intelligence. In the United States, the normalisation of the publication of statistics disrupted by the shutdown is continuing. The market will see two important pieces of data next week: the November employment report (Tuesday) and November inflation (Thursday). We will also have to contend with the December flash PMI indices for the major economies (Tuesday) and several monetary policy decisions, notably in the eurozone and the United Kingdom (Thursday) and Japan (Friday). Micron (semiconductors), Accenture (consulting), Nike (sportswear) and Fedex (logistics) will unveil their latest results. |
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