| Crime fell across much of the U.S. in 2025 — both violent and property crimes — in big cities and small towns across red and blue. NPR spoke to researchers who study crime about what drove this trend, and whether it could last. Here’s what they said:
Homicide surged in 2020 and 2021 amid the economic, financial and psychological stress of the COVID-19 pandemic. Researchers say the country is now moving past that surge.
The nationwide decline contrasts with the Trump administration's depiction of crime, particularly in Democrat-led cities.
Tahir Duckett, who directs the Center for Innovations in Community Safety at Georgetown Law, warns that using crime to justify crackdowns can erode civil rights and expand government power.
Crackdowns can also backfire, increasing mistrust and making people less likely to call 911 or cooperate with police.
Researchers aren’t optimistic that the trend will continue into 2026. Funding cuts worry experts like Ames Grawert, of the Brennan Center for Justice. | 
