| A TACO that's harder to digest |
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Financial markets were nervous this week, with a sharp decline on Monday following threats of new tariffs in Europe due to the lack of an agreement on Greenland. The situation then reversed when the US President announced the framework for a future agreement with NATO in Davos, thereby lifting his tariff and military threats. Despite the prospect of a compromise, uncertainties remain, further reducing visibility on the indices. |
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| This week's gainers and losers |
Up:
Beazley +40.49%: The British insurer has rejected a second offer from Switzerland's Zurich Insurance, which had offered GBX 1,230 and then GBX 1,280 per share. The board of directors is unanimous in its view that the offer is not high enough.
Wise +17.12%: The fintech company expects its 2026 earnings to be at the high end of its forecast range. Bank of America raised its target price to GBX 1,125 in the wake of this announcement, while maintaining its “buy” rating.
SanDisk +14.56%: The storage specialist is advancing after analysts raised their price targets. Its results and outlook are considered solid, showing an improvement in the fundamentals of NAND flash memory technology. Analysts anticipate demand exceeding supply from 2026 onwards, driven by generative AI, capacity discipline, and a sharp improvement in margins.
Hecla Mining +19.86%: The largest silver producer in the US is benefiting from rising precious metal prices, to which the company is heavily exposed. Buying flows into mining stocks are also reinforcing the stock's upward momentum.
Down:
Abbott -11.78%: The healthcare and medical device group saw its share price fall after a disappointing quarterly report, with sales below expectations, particularly in the nutrition segment, and a weaker-than-expected outlook for the first quarter.
AeroVironment -21.66%: The drone and defense specialist fell after receiving a temporary work stoppage order from the US Department of Defense on the BADGER program. This unexpected pause raises fears of a revenue delay in 2026, even though the group anticipates a renegotiation of the contract and maintains a favorable long-term outlook.
Roblox -15.08%: The online gaming platform underwent a market correction after a strong rebound, with profit-taking and a rotation out of more volatile stocks such as tech. In addition, slowing booking growth and concerns about margins and user engagement also tempered investor optimism. |
| Commodities |
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Energy: Oil remains caught between oversupply and geopolitical tensions. This is reflected in prices that fluctuate wildly in line with the concerns of financiers, who are sometimes worried about excess supply and sometimes unsettled by geopolitical friction. The oil market therefore ended the week on a volatile note, with Brent crude trading at around $65 per barrel and WTI at around $60 per barrel. The threat of US military intervention against Iran and the deployment of warships to the region have reignited fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. These tensions mask a more bearish reality. On Thursday, prices fell after the release of US inventory data. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected increase in crude inventories of 3.6 million barrels and an increase in gasoline inventories of 6 million barrels, signaling sluggish demand. Finally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its demand forecast upward for 2026, but still anticipates a market with a large structural surplus. A word about natural gas, whose price is soaring in Europe and the United States. An intense cold snap is sweeping across the United States, reaching Texas, causing heating demand to skyrocket. The US increase has spread to Europe. The European gas price (Dutch TTF) has climbed by around 10%, briefly exceeding EUR 40/MWh. Europe also has to contend with relatively low stocks.
Metals: Gold, silver, and platinum have reached unprecedented highs, driven by a loss of investor confidence in US assets and a weakening dollar. The price of gold hit a new all-time high of $4,967, approaching the psychological threshold of $5,000. Gold has gained 15% since the beginning of 2026. This momentum is prompting analysts to revise their targets: Goldman Sachs now anticipates a price of $5,400 by the end of the year. Other precious metals are following suit. Physical silver is trading at $98.62 per ounce, close to the $100 mark. The gray metal is outperforming gold with a 38% increase since January 1! Platinum also reached a record high of $2,691 per ounce (+27% in 2026). Copper remains strong in London at $12,921. Supply is disrupted by a strike at the Mantoverde mine in Chile.
Agricultural products: Grains are rising again in Chicago. This rebound is supported by the weak dollar (which makes US exports more competitive) and weather risks. A winter storm is bringing moisture to crops, but it is accompanied by freezing temperatures, which could impact yields. Wheat is trading higher at 520 cents (March 2026 contract). Finally, we note the decline in cocoa prices, which are undergoing a major correction. After a surge in prices at the beginning of 2024, prices reached their lowest level in two years this week. This reversal is due to a combination of oversupply and weakening consumption. |
| Macroeconomics |
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Macro: TACO, TACO. For many observers, the US president has once again backtracked on Greenland after once again brandishing his favorite weapon, tariffs. However, this is a superficial reading of the situation. As always with Donald Trump, he pulls out the big guns to justify outrageous demands and then de-escalates to obtain concessions: extending US rights over its bases, securing long-term access corridors, and gaining access to Greenland's mineral resources. Once the peak of volatility had passed, business resumed as usual and the news was good: US GDP growth was revised upward for the third quarter to +4.40%, while fourth-quarter growth is expected to be +5.4%. Inflation, as measured by the Core PCE, fell by 0.1 points to +2.7% year-on-year. The lights are green for a continued rise in stock indices.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell 4.43% this week, dropping back below the USD 90,000 mark. Since November, BTC has been trading in a range between USD 85,000 and USD 95,000, in an uncertain macroeconomic environment marked by Donald Trump's erratic communication on the economic and diplomatic scene. This instability is weighing directly on risky assets, with cryptocurrencies at the forefront. This volatility is also reflected in the flows of spot Bitcoin ETFs. After recording $1.4 billion in net inflows last week, these exchange-traded products backed by the price of bitcoin are now showing more than $1.2 billion in net outflows this week. In the absence of positive catalysts, bitcoin is struggling to return to its historic high of $126,000, reached last October. In the wake of Bitcoin, the entire cryptocurrency market is trending downward. Ether (ETH) is down 11% and back below $3,000, Solana (SOL) is down 8% to around $126, while XRP (XRP) is down 4.6% and hovering around $1.9. |
TACO Trade is the name given by investors to the strategy of betting on Donald Trump's backtracking (TACO is the acronym for "Trump Always Chickens Out"). Has he really scaled back his claims on Greenland? Or has he taken a step back in order to take a bigger leap forward? We will find out in the coming weeks. Among the short-term certainties are two monetary policy decisions on Thursday. Without wishing to offend the Bank of Canada, it is the Fed's decision that will have the greatest impact. The market is 95% expecting the status quo for the penultimate FOMC meeting of Jerome Powell's presidency. In Europe, the heavyweights will be out in force with their quarterly results: LVMH, ASML, SAP, and Roche will be among the most eagerly awaited announcements. In the United States, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple, Visa, and Exxon Mobil are set to report, to name but a few. Now is the time to enjoy the weekend. |
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Things to read this week
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Donald Trump will not have control over the next Fed chair… and he knows it
As the announcement of Jerome Powell's successor has seemed imminent for several weeks, the president is stalling.
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Gold almost $5,000 an ounce, silver close to $100
Gold, silver and platinum reached uncharted territory on Friday. The surge in precious metals is fuelled by less confidence in US assets, against a backdrop of... Read more
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How can a stock fall despite strong results?
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