Interest rates could rise next week ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

It’s all gone a bit pear-shaped for the Reserve Bank. Inflation – which was trending lower post-COVID, paving the way for three interest rate cuts last year – has now jumped higher. The latest figures show headline inflation surged to 3.8% in the year to December, up from 3.4%.

Rising costs for housing construction, some food items and child care all contributed. Even the key measure of underlying inflation rose to 3.4% from 3.0%, well above the Reserve Bank’s own forecasts and firmly outside its target band of 2–3%.

This all makes a hike in interest rates next Tuesday much more likely; all four major banks are now predicting an increase. But as John Hawkins writes, raising rates just five months after the most recent cut would be an unusually rapid turnaround for the central bank. It could call their past judgement into question.

Victoria Thieberger

Business and Economics Editor

 

Australian inflation jumps, adding to chances of an RBA interest rate hike

John Hawkins, University of Canberra

A rate hike next week would be an unusually rapid turnaround after the recent interest rate cuts.

View from The Hill: Nationals rebel stirs the pot but Littleproud is dug in

Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra

A little-known Nationals MP has put up his hand to spill the party’s leadership, but unless he gets some support from colleagues, it may not get off the ground.

Politics with Michelle Grattan: Jonno Duniam on the ‘frenzy’ over hate speech laws and the Coalition split

Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra

The Liberal senator says ‘social media influencers’ have falsely ‘whipped up a frenzy’ of misinformation about new hate speech laws limiting freedom of speech.

Xi Jinping has dismissed two of China’s most senior generals. What does this mean?

David S G Goodman, University of Sydney

Removing top military leaders may suggest the Chinese military is undergoing a culture change. But it’s difficult to know in a system as opaque as China’s.

How much would you pay for school to provide your child with lunch everyday?

Brittany Johnson, Flinders University; Alexandra Manson, Flinders University; Rebecca Golley, Flinders University

A new study looks at what parents want in school lunch programs, and how much they would be willing to pay to support them.

Why is my migraine worse in summer?

Lakshini Gunasekera, Monash University; Elspeth Hutton, Monash University

For some people, changes in routine and diet – along with heat, glare and dehydration – may make migraine flare. Knowing your triggers can help you prepare.

Fossil fuels are doomed – and Trump can’t save them

Wesley Morgan, UNSW Sydney

Yes, climate change is worsening and action is uneven. But the shift away from fossil fuels is beginning.

Politics + Society

Environment + Energy

Science + Technology

Arts + Culture

Books + Ideas

A simple fix?
“Any major party can tweak the rug out from under One Nation's growth by dealing with one heck of an elephant in the room – population growth. Sure, growing Australia's population by 30% every 20 years makes certain economic goals easy to hit. It also makes citizens' lives increasingly difficult, and housing impossible to solve, since building can never outstrip new demand. Yet still the major parties won't touch population issues, and citizen frustration turns to anger, and anger turns to One Nation.”
Peter McPherson

Periods and productivity
“Great to see an article on the subject that is never discussed in the open: the ongoing impact period pain and excessive bleeding has on women and their working life. The fact that it’s monthly means living with a constant rollercoaster that affects energy, concentration, and confidence. Until women's health is researched properly, period products funded and workplaces are respectful of the unique needs of a woman's health, we will continue to be less well off financially.”
Jane Davis

Recommended reading
“If there's one book which will get Australians thinking about themselves as one people, it's Mark McKenna's Shortest History of Australia. He sees waves of immigrants in the context of a continuous population of the land we know as Australia. It's short, it's to the point, and it is worth being at the top of everyone's reading list.”
Glenda Gartrell

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